Adaptive Importance Sampling Simulation of Queueing Networks

In this paper, a method is presented for the efficient estimation of rare-event (overflow) probabilities in Jackson queueing networks using importance sampling. The method differs in two ways from methods discussed in most earlier literature: the change of measure is state-dependent, i.e., it is a function of the content of the buffers, and the change of measure is determined using a cross-entropy-based adaptive procedure. This method yields asymptotically efficient estimation of overflow probabilities of queueing models for which it has been shown that methods using a stateindependent change of measure are not asymptotically efficient. Numerical results demonstrating the effectiveness of the method are presented as well

Importance Sampling Simulations of Markovian Reliability Systems using Cross Entropy

This paper reports simulation experiments, applying the cross entropy method suchas the importance sampling algorithm for efficient estimation of rare event probabilities in Markovian reliability systems. The method is compared to various failurebiasing schemes that have been proved to give estimators with bounded relativeerrors. The results from the experiments indicate a considerable improvement ofthe performance of the importance sampling estimators, where performance is mea-sured by the relative error of the estimate, by the relative error of the estimator,and by the gain of the importance sampling simulation to the normal simulation

Improved Cross-Entropy Method for Estimation

The cross-entropy (CE) method is an adaptive importance sampling procedure that has been successfully applied to a diverse range of complicated simulation problems. However, recent research has shown that in some high-dimensional settings, the likelihood ratio degeneracy problem becomes severe and the importance sampling estimator obtained from the CE algorithm becomes unreliable. We consider a variation of the CE method whose performance does not deteriorate as the dimension of the problem increases. We then illustrate the algorithm via a high-dimensional estimation problem in risk management

Asymptotically optimal importance sampling for Jackson networks with a tree topology

This note describes an importance sampling (IS) algorithm to estimate buffer overflows of stable Jackson networks with a tree topology. Three new measures of service capacity and traffic in Jackson networks are introduced and the algorithm is defined in their terms. These measures are effective service rate, effective utilization and effective service-to-arrival ratio of a node. They depend on the nonempty/empty states of the queues of the network. For a node with a nonempty queue, the effective service rate equals the node's nominal service rate. For a node i with an empty queue, it is either a weighted sum of the effective service rates of the nodes receiving traffic directly from node i, or the nominal service rate, whichever smaller. The effective utilization is the ratio of arrival rate to the effective service rate and the effective service-to-arrival ratio is its reciprocal. The rare overflow event of interest is the following: given that initially the network is empty, the system experiences a buffer overflow before returning to the empty state. Two types of buffer structures are considered: (1) a single system-wide buffer shared by all nodes, and (2) each node has its own fixed size buffer. The constructed IS algorithm is asymptotically optimal, i. e., the variance of the associated estimator decays exponentially in the buffer size at the maximum possible rate. This is proved using methods from (Dupuis et al. in Ann. Appl. Probab. 17(4): 1306-1346, 2007), which are based on a limit Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and its boundary conditions and their smooth subsolutions. Numerical examples involving networks with as many as eight nodes are provided

Analysis of State-Independent Importance-Sampling Measures for the Two-Node Tandem Queue

We investigate the simulation of overflow of the total population of a Markovian two-node tandem queue model during a busy cycle, using importance sampling with a state-independent change of measure. We show that the only such change of measure that may possibly result in asymptotically efficient simulation for large overflow levels is exchanging the arrival rate with the smallest service rate. For this change of measure, we classify the model's parameter space into regions of asymptotic efficiency, exponential growth of the relative error, and infinite variance, using both analytical and numerical techniques