Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955

We detail a new prediction-oriented procedure aimed at volcanic hazard assessment based on geophysical mass flow models constrained with heterogeneous and poorly defined data. Our method relies on an itemized application of the empirical falsification principle over an arbitrarily wide envelope of possible input conditions. We thus provide a first step towards a objective and partially automated experimental design construction. In particular, instead of fully calibrating model inputs on past observations, we create and explore more general requirements of consistency, and then we separately use each piece of empirical data to remove those input values that are not compatible with it. Hence, partial solutions are defined to the inverse problem. This has several advantages compared to a traditionally posed inverse problem: (i) the potentially nonempty inverse images of partial solutions of multiple possible forward models characterize the solutions to the inverse problem; (ii) the partial solutions can provide hazard estimates under weaker constraints, potentially including extreme cases that are important for hazard analysis; (iii) if multiple models are applicable, specific performance scores against each piece of empirical information can be calculated. We apply our procedure to the case study of the Atenquique volcaniclastic debris flow, which occurred on the flanks of Nevado de Colima volcano (Mexico), 1955. We adopt and compare three depth-averaged models currently implemented in the TITAN2D solver, available from https://vhub.org (Version 4.0.0 – last access: 23 June 2016). The associated inverse problem is not well-posed if approached in a traditional way. We show that our procedure can extract valuable information for hazard assessment, allowing the exploration of the impact of synthetic flows that are similar to those that occurred in the past but different in plausible ways. The implementation of multiple models is thus a crucial aspect of our approach, as they can allow the covering of other plausible flows. We also observe that model selection is inherently linked to the inversion problem.</p

Scientific drilling projects in ancient lakes: integrating geological and biological histories

Sedimentary sequences in ancient or long-lived lakes can reach several thousands of meters in thickness and often provide an unrivalled perspective of the lake's regional climatic, environmental, and biological history. Over the last few years, deep drilling projects in ancient lakes became increasingly multi- and interdisciplinary, as, among others, seismological, sedimentological, biogeochemical, climatic, environmental, paleontological, and evolutionary information can be obtained from sediment cores. However, these multi- and interdisciplinary projects pose several challenges. The scientists involved typically approach problems from different scientific perspectives and backgrounds, and setting up the program requires clear communication and the alignment of interests. One of the most challenging tasks, besides the actual drilling operation, is to link diverse datasets with varying resolution, data quality, and age uncertainties to answer interdisciplinary questions synthetically and coherently. These problems are especially relevant when secondary data, i.e., datasets obtained independently of the drilling operation, are incorporated in analyses. Nonetheless, the inclusion of secondary information, such as isotopic data from fossils found in outcrops or genetic data from extant species, may help to achieve synthetic answers. Recent technological and methodological advances in paleolimnology are likely to increase the possibilities of integrating secondary information, e.g., through molecular dating of molecular phylogenies. Some of the new approaches have started to revolutionize scientific drilling in ancient lakes, but at the same time, they also add a new layer of complexity to the generation and analysis of sediment core data. The enhanced opportunities presented by new scientific approaches to study the paleolimnological history of these lakes, therefore, come at the expense of higher logistic, communication, and analytical efforts. Here we review types of data that can be obtained in ancient lake drilling projects and the analytical approaches that can be applied to empirically and statistically link diverse datasets for creating an integrative perspective on geological and biological data. In doing so, we highlight strengths and potential weaknesses of new methods and analyses, and provide recommendations for future interdisciplinary deep drilling projects

Acupuncture in Modern Medicine

This book contains four integrated sections: 1) Acupuncture Research; 2) New Developments in Acupuncture; 3) Acupuncture Therapy for Clinical Conditions and 4) Assessment and Accessibility in Acupuncture Therapy. Section 1 provides updates on acupuncture research. From acupuncture effects in modulation of immune system to the role of nitric oxide in acupuncture mechanisms, chapters in this section offer readers the newest trends in acupuncture research. Section 2 summarizes new developments in acupuncture. The included chapters discuss new tools and methods in acupuncture such as laser acupuncture, sham needles, and new technologies. Section 3 discusses acupuncture therapy for clinical conditions. The chapters in this section provide comprehensive and critical views of acupuncture therapy and its application in common clinical practice. Section 4 takes a new look at the issues related to assessment and accessibility in acupuncture therapy. These issues are central to developing new standards for outcome assessment and policies that will increase the accessibility to acupuncture therapy

Models, Simulations, and the Reduction of Complexity

Modern science is a model-building activity. But how are models contructed? How are they related to theories and data? How do they explain complex scientific phenomena, and which role do computer simulations play? To address these questions which are highly relevant to scientists as well as to philosophers of science, 8 leading natural, engineering and social scientists reflect upon their modeling work, and 8 philosophers provide a commentary

Models, Simulations, and the Reduction of Complexity

Modern science is a model-building activity. But how are models contructed? How are they related to theories and data? How do they explain complex scientific phenomena, and which role do computer simulations play? To address these questions which are highly relevant to scientists as well as to philosophers of science, 8 leading natural, engineering and social scientists reflect upon their modeling work, and 8 philosophers provide a commentary