Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Attentive monitoring of multiple video streams driven by a Bayesian foraging strategy

In this paper we shall consider the problem of deploying attention to subsets of the video streams for collating the most relevant data and information of interest related to a given task. We formalize this monitoring problem as a foraging problem. We propose a probabilistic framework to model observer's attentive behavior as the behavior of a forager. The forager, moment to moment, focuses its attention on the most informative stream/camera, detects interesting objects or activities, or switches to a more profitable stream. The approach proposed here is suitable to be exploited for multi-stream video summarization. Meanwhile, it can serve as a preliminary step for more sophisticated video surveillance, e.g. activity and behavior analysis. Experimental results achieved on the UCR Videoweb Activities Dataset, a publicly available dataset, are presented to illustrate the utility of the proposed technique.Comment: Accepted to IEEE Transactions on Image Processin

Closed-loop Bayesian Semantic Data Fusion for Collaborative Human-Autonomy Target Search

In search applications, autonomous unmanned vehicles must be able to efficiently reacquire and localize mobile targets that can remain out of view for long periods of time in large spaces. As such, all available information sources must be actively leveraged -- including imprecise but readily available semantic observations provided by humans. To achieve this, this work develops and validates a novel collaborative human-machine sensing solution for dynamic target search. Our approach uses continuous partially observable Markov decision process (CPOMDP) planning to generate vehicle trajectories that optimally exploit imperfect detection data from onboard sensors, as well as semantic natural language observations that can be specifically requested from human sensors. The key innovation is a scalable hierarchical Gaussian mixture model formulation for efficiently solving CPOMDPs with semantic observations in continuous dynamic state spaces. The approach is demonstrated and validated with a real human-robot team engaged in dynamic indoor target search and capture scenarios on a custom testbed.Comment: Final version accepted and submitted to 2018 FUSION Conference (Cambridge, UK, July 2018

Substructure and Boundary Modeling for Continuous Action Recognition

This paper introduces a probabilistic graphical model for continuous action recognition with two novel components: substructure transition model and discriminative boundary model. The first component encodes the sparse and global temporal transition prior between action primitives in state-space model to handle the large spatial-temporal variations within an action class. The second component enforces the action duration constraint in a discriminative way to locate the transition boundaries between actions more accurately. The two components are integrated into a unified graphical structure to enable effective training and inference. Our comprehensive experimental results on both public and in-house datasets show that, with the capability to incorporate additional information that had not been explicitly or efficiently modeled by previous methods, our proposed algorithm achieved significantly improved performance for continuous action recognition.Comment: Detailed version of the CVPR 2012 paper. 15 pages, 6 figure

Estimating Time-Varying Effective Connectivity in High-Dimensional fMRI Data Using Regime-Switching Factor Models

Recent studies on analyzing dynamic brain connectivity rely on sliding-window analysis or time-varying coefficient models which are unable to capture both smooth and abrupt changes simultaneously. Emerging evidence suggests state-related changes in brain connectivity where dependence structure alternates between a finite number of latent states or regimes. Another challenge is inference of full-brain networks with large number of nodes. We employ a Markov-switching dynamic factor model in which the state-driven time-varying connectivity regimes of high-dimensional fMRI data are characterized by lower-dimensional common latent factors, following a regime-switching process. It enables a reliable, data-adaptive estimation of change-points of connectivity regimes and the massive dependencies associated with each regime. We consider the switching VAR to quantity the dynamic effective connectivity. We propose a three-step estimation procedure: (1) extracting the factors using principal component analysis (PCA) and (2) identifying dynamic connectivity states using the factor-based switching vector autoregressive (VAR) models in a state-space formulation using Kalman filter and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, and (3) constructing the high-dimensional connectivity metrics for each state based on subspace estimates. Simulation results show that our proposed estimator outperforms the K-means clustering of time-windowed coefficients, providing more accurate estimation of regime dynamics and connectivity metrics in high-dimensional settings. Applications to analyzing resting-state fMRI data identify dynamic changes in brain states during rest, and reveal distinct directed connectivity patterns and modular organization in resting-state networks across different states.Comment: 21 page

A system for learning statistical motion patterns

Analysis of motion patterns is an effective approach for anomaly detection and behavior prediction. Current approaches for the analysis of motion patterns depend on known scenes, where objects move in predefined ways. It is highly desirable to automatically construct object motion patterns which reflect the knowledge of the scene. In this paper, we present a system for automatically learning motion patterns for anomaly detection and behavior prediction based on a proposed algorithm for robustly tracking multiple objects. In the tracking algorithm, foreground pixels are clustered using a fast accurate fuzzy k-means algorithm. Growing and prediction of the cluster centroids of foreground pixels ensure that each cluster centroid is associated with a moving object in the scene. In the algorithm for learning motion patterns, trajectories are clustered hierarchically using spatial and temporal information and then each motion pattern is represented with a chain of Gaussian distributions. Based on the learned statistical motion patterns, statistical methods are used to detect anomalies and predict behaviors. Our system is tested using image sequences acquired, respectively, from a crowded real traffic scene and a model traffic scene. Experimental results show the robustness of the tracking algorithm, the efficiency of the algorithm for learning motion patterns, and the encouraging performance of algorithms for anomaly detection and behavior prediction