Modeling of electricity demand forecast for power system

© 2019, Springer-Verlag London Ltd., part of Springer Nature. The emerging complex circumstances caused by economy, technology, and government policy and the requirement of low-carbon development of power grid lead to many challenges in the power system coordination and operation. However, the real-time scheduling of electricity generation needs accurate modeling of electricity demand forecasting for a range of lead times. In order to better capture the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics and the seasonal cycles of future electricity demand data, a new concept of the integrated model is developed and successfully applied to research the forecast of electricity demand in this paper. The proposed model combines adaptive Fourier decomposition method, a new signal preprocessing technology, for extracting useful element from the original electricity demand series through filtering the noise factors. Considering the seasonal term existing in the decomposed series, it should be eliminated through the seasonal adjustment method, in which the seasonal indexes are calculated and should multiply the forecasts back to restore the final forecast. Besides, a newly proposed moth-flame optimization algorithm is used to ensure the suitable parameters of the least square support vector machine which can generate the forecasts. Finally, the case studies of Australia demonstrated the efficacy and feasibility of the proposed integrated model. Simultaneously, it can provide a better concept of modeling for electricity demand prediction over different forecasting horizons

An Enhanced Moth-Flame Optimization with Multiple Flame Guidance Mechanism for Parameter Extraction of Photovoltaic Models

How to accurately and efficiently extract photovoltaic (PV) model parameters is the primary problem of photovoltaic system optimization. To accurately and efficiently extract the parameters of PV models, an enhanced moth-flame optimization (EMFO) with multiple flame guidance mechanism is proposed in this study. In EMFO, an adaptive flame number updating mechanism is used to adaptively control the flame number, which enhances the local and global exploration capabilities of MFO. Meanwhile, a multiple flame guidance mechanism is designed for the full use of the position information of flames, which enhances the global diversity of the population. The EMFO is evaluated with other variants of the MFO on 25 benchmark functions of CEC2005, 28 functions of CEC2017, and 5 photovoltaic model parameter extraction problems. Experimental results show that the EMFO has obtained a better performance than other compared algorithms, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed EMFO. The method proposed in this study provides MFO researchers with ideas for adaptive research and making full use of flame population information

Rethinking solar photovoltaic parameter estimation: global optimality analysis and a simple efficient differential evolution method

Accurate, fast, and reliable parameter estimation is crucial for modeling, control, and optimization of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. In this paper, we focus on the two most widely used benchmark datasets and try to answer (i) whether the global minimum in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) has already been reached; and (ii) whether a significantly simpler metaheuristic, in contrast to currently sophisticated ones, is capable of identifying PV parameters with comparable performance, e.g., attaining the same RMSE. We address the former using an interval analysis based branch and bound algorithm and certify the global minimum rigorously for the single diode model (SDM) as well as locating a fairly tight upper bound for the double diode model (DDM) on both datasets. These obtained values will serve as useful references for metaheuristic methods, since none of them can guarantee or recognize the global minimum even if they have literally discovered it. However, this algorithm is excessively slow and unsuitable for time-sensitive applications (despite the great insights on RMSE that it yields). Regarding the second question, extensive examination and comparison reveal that, perhaps surprisingly, a classic and remarkably simple differential evolution (DE) algorithm can consistently achieve the certified global minimum for the SDM and obtain the best known result for the DDM on both datasets. Thanks to its extreme simplicity, the DE algorithm takes only a fraction of the running time required by other contemporary metaheuristics and is thus preferable in real-time scenarios. This unusual (and certainly notable) finding also indicates that the employment of increasingly complicated metaheuristics might possibly be somewhat overkill for regular PV parameter estimation. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results and suggest promising directions for future development.Comment: v2, see source code at https://github.com/ShuhuaGao/rePVes

Role of Metaheuristics in Optimizing Microgrids Operating and Management Issues::A Comprehensive Review

The increased interest in renewable-based microgrids imposes several challenges, such as source integration, power quality, and operating cost. Dealing with these problems requires solving nonlinear optimization problems that include multiple linear or nonlinear constraints and continuous variables or discrete ones that require large dimensionality search space to find the optimal or sub-optimal solution. These problems may include the optimal power flow in the microgrid, the best possible configurations, and the accuracy of the models within the microgrid. Metaheuristic optimization algorithms are getting more suggested in the literature contributions for microgrid applications to solve these optimization problems. This paper intends to thoroughly review some significant issues surrounding microgrid operation and solve them using metaheuristic optimization algorithms. This study provides a collection of fundamental principles and concepts that describe metaheuristic optimization algorithms. Then, the most significant metaheuristic optimization algorithms that have been published in the last years in the context of microgrid applications are investigated and analyzed. Finally, the employment of metaheuristic optimization algorithms to specific microgrid issue applications is reviewed, including examples of some used algorithms. These issues include unit commitment, economic dispatch, optimal power flow, distribution system reconfiguration, transmission network expansion and distribution system planning, load and generation forecasting, maintenance schedules, and renewable sources max power tracking

Reinforcement Learning-assisted Evolutionary Algorithm: A Survey and Research Opportunities

Evolutionary algorithms (EA), a class of stochastic search methods based on the principles of natural evolution, have received widespread acclaim for their exceptional performance in various real-world optimization problems. While researchers worldwide have proposed a wide variety of EAs, certain limitations remain, such as slow convergence speed and poor generalization capabilities. Consequently, numerous scholars actively explore improvements to algorithmic structures, operators, search patterns, etc., to enhance their optimization performance. Reinforcement learning (RL) integrated as a component in the EA framework has demonstrated superior performance in recent years. This paper presents a comprehensive survey on integrating reinforcement learning into the evolutionary algorithm, referred to as reinforcement learning-assisted evolutionary algorithm (RL-EA). We begin with the conceptual outlines of reinforcement learning and the evolutionary algorithm. We then provide a taxonomy of RL-EA. Subsequently, we discuss the RL-EA integration method, the RL-assisted strategy adopted by RL-EA, and its applications according to the existing literature. The RL-assisted procedure is divided according to the implemented functions including solution generation, learnable objective function, algorithm/operator/sub-population selection, parameter adaptation, and other strategies. Finally, we analyze potential directions for future research. This survey serves as a rich resource for researchers interested in RL-EA as it overviews the current state-of-the-art and highlights the associated challenges. By leveraging this survey, readers can swiftly gain insights into RL-EA to develop efficient algorithms, thereby fostering further advancements in this emerging field.Comment: 26 pages, 16 figure

The Application of PSO in Structural Damage Detection: An Analysis of the Previously Released Publications (2005–2020)

The structural health monitoring (SHM) approach plays a key role not only in structural engineering but also in other various engineering disciplines by evaluating the safety and performance monitoring of the structures. The structural damage detection methods could be regarded as the core of SHM strategies. That is because the early detection of the damages and measures to be taken to repair and replace the damaged members with healthy ones could lead to economic advantages and would prevent human disasters. The optimization-based methods are one of the most popular techniques for damage detection. Using these methods, an objective function is minimized by an optimization algorithm during an iterative procedure. The performance of optimization algorithms has a significant impact on the accuracy of damage identification methodology. Hence, a wide variety of algorithms are employed to address optimization-based damage detection problems. Among different algorithms, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach has been of the most popular ones. PSO was initially proposed by Kennedy and Eberhart in 1995, and different variants were developed to improve its performance. This work investigates the objectives, methodologies, and results obtained by over 50 studies (2005-2020) in the context of the structural damage detection using PSO and its variants. Then, several important open research questions are highlighted. The paper also provides insights on the frequently used methodologies based on PSO, the computational time, and the accuracy of the existing methodologies

An innovative metaheuristic strategy for solar energy management through a neural networks framework

Proper management of solar energy as an effective renewable source is of high importance toward sustainable energy harvesting. This paper offers a novel sophisticated method for predicting solar irradiance (SIr) from environmental conditions. To this end, an efficient metaheuristic technique, namely electromagnetic field optimization (EFO), is employed for optimizing a neural network. This algorithm quickly mines a publicly available dataset for nonlinearly tuning the network parameters. To suggest an optimal configuration, five influential parameters of the EFO are optimized by an extensive trial and error practice. Analyzing the results showed that the proposed model can learn the SIr pattern and predict it for unseen conditions with high accuracy. Furthermore, it provided about 10% and 16% higher accuracy compared to two benchmark optimizers, namely shuffled complex evolution and shuffled frog leaping algorithm. Hence, the EFO-supervised neural network can be a promising tool for the early prediction of SIr in practice. The findings of this research may shed light on the use of advanced intelligent models for efficient energy development

Computational Intelligence for Modeling, Control, Optimization, Forecasting and Diagnostics in Photovoltaic Applications

This book is a Special Issue Reprint edited by Prof. Massimo Vitelli and Dr. Luigi Costanzo. It contains original research articles covering, but not limited to, the following topics: maximum power point tracking techniques; forecasting techniques; sizing and optimization of PV components and systems; PV modeling; reconfiguration algorithms; fault diagnosis; mismatching detection; decision processes for grid operators

Algorithms and Methods for Designing and Scheduling Smart Manufacturing Systems

This book, as a Special Issue, is a collection of some of the latest advancements in designing and scheduling smart manufacturing systems. The smart manufacturing concept is undoubtedly considered a paradigm shift in manufacturing technology. This conception is part of the Industry 4.0 strategy, or equivalent national policies, and brings new challenges and opportunities for the companies that are facing tough global competition. Industry 4.0 should not only be perceived as one of many possible strategies for manufacturing companies, but also as an important practice within organizations. The main focus of Industry 4.0 implementation is to combine production, information technology, and the internet. The presented Special Issue consists of ten research papers presenting the latest works in the field. The papers include various topics, which can be divided into three categories—(i) designing and scheduling manufacturing systems (seven articles), (ii) machining process optimization (two articles), (iii) digital insurance platforms (one article). Most of the mentioned research problems are solved in these articles by using genetic algorithms, the harmony search algorithm, the hybrid bat algorithm, the combined whale optimization algorithm, and other optimization and decision-making methods. The above-mentioned groups of articles are briefly described in this order in this book

Recent meta-heuristic algorithms with a novel premature covergence method for determining the parameters of pv cells and modules

Currently, the incorporation of solar panels in many applications is a booming trend, which necessitates accurate simulations and analysis of their performance under different operating conditions for further decision making. In this paper, various optimization algorithms are addressed comprehensively through a comparative study and further discussions for extracting the unknown parameters. Efficient use of the iterations within the optimization process may help meta-heuristic algorithms in accelerating convergence plus attaining better accuracy for the final outcome. In this paper, a method, namely, the premature convergence method (PCM), is proposed to boost the convergence of meta-heuristic algorithms with significant improvement in their accuracies. PCM is based on updating the current position around the best-so-far solution with two-step sizes: the first is based on the distance between two individuals selected randomly from the population to encourage the exploration capability, and the second is based on the distance between the current position and the best-so-far solution to promote exploitation. In addition, PCM uses a weight variable, known also as a controlling factor, as a trade-off between the two-step sizes. The proposed method is integrated with three well-known meta-heuristic algorithms to observe its efficacy for estimating efficiently and effectively the unknown parameters of the single diode model (SDM). In addition, an RTC France Si solar cell, and three PV modules, namely, Photowatt-PWP201, Ultra 85-P, and STM6-40/36, are investigated with the improved algorithms and selected standard approaches to compare their performances in estimating the unknown parameters for those different types of PV cells and modules. The experimental results point out the efficacy of the PCM in accelerating the convergence speed with improved final outcomes