A pure variation of risk in private-value auctions

We introduce a new method of varying risk that bidders face in first-price and second-price private value auctions. We find that decreasing bidders’ risk in first-price auction reduces the degree of overbidding relative to the risk-neutral Bayesian Nash equilibrium prediction.This finding is consistent with the risk-aversion explanation of overbidding. Furthermore, we apply the method to second-price auctions and find that bidding behavior is robust to manipulating bidders'' risk as generally expected in auction theory.microeconomics ;

Risk- & Regret-Averse Bidders in Sealed-Bid Auctions

Overbidding, bidding more than risk-neutral Bayesian Nash Equilibrium, is a widely observed phenomenon in virtually all experimental auctions. The scholars within the auction literature propose the risk-averse preference model to explain overbidding structurally. However, the risk-averse preference model predicts underbidding in such important classes of auctions as all-pay auctions. To solve this discrepancy, we construct a structural model of bidding behavior in sealed-bid auctions, one in which bidders may regret their decisions. Our model nests both risk-averse and regret-averse attitudes and aims to explain overbidding in a wider class of auctions. We first derive equilibrium first-order conditions, which are used for estimation and calibration analyses, and show monotonic increasing properties of equilibrium bidding functions. Second, we carry out structural estimation and calibration analyses based on experimental data from Kagel and Levin (1993) and Noussair and Silver (2006). With these structurally estimated parameters, we test the significance of bidders’ risk-averse and regret-averse attitudes. The estimation results show that bidders exhibit weak risk-averse (close to risk-neutral) and strong regret-averse attitudes. Furthermore, regret-averse attitudes are significant when bidders anticipate losing. Calibration results demonstrate that our risk- & regret-averse model can explain overbidding across all of the above IPV auctions. Third, we simulate our model with the estimated parameters and obtain revenue rankings numerically. This allows us to confirm the revenue supremacy in all-pay auctions reported in experimental auction literature. We discuss extensions to asymmetric and Common-Value (CV) auctions in our online appendix

Anomalies in Auction Choice Behavior

Ivanova-Stenzel and Salmon (2004a) established some interesting yet puzzling results regarding bidders’ preferences between auction formats. The finding is that bidders strongly prefer the ascending to the first price sealed bid auction on a ceteris paribus basis but they are not willing to pay up to an entry price for entering into an ascending auction instead of a first price that would equalize the profits between the two. While it was found that risk aversion on the part of the bidders could resolve this anomaly the claim that risk aversion drives overbidding in first price auctions is somewhat controversial. In this study we examine two competing explanations for the observed behavior; loss aversion and “clock aversion”, i.e. a dislike for some aspect of the clock based bidding mechanism. We find that neither alternative explanation can account for bidders’ auction choice behavior leaving risk aversion as the only un-falsified hypothesis

Revenue Equivalence Revisited

The conventional wisdom in the auction design literature is that first price sealed bid auctions tend to make more money while ascending auctions tend to be more efficient. We re-examine these issues in an environment in which bidders are allowed to endogenously choose in which auction format to participate. Our findings are that more bidders choose to enter the ascending auction than the first price sealed bid auction and this extra entry is enough to make up the revenue difference between the formats. Consequently, we find that both formats raise approximately the same amount of revenue. They also generate efficiency levels and bidder earnings that are roughly equivalent across mechanisms though the earnings in the ascending might be slightly higher. In expected utility terms though, we find that the expected utility of entering a first price sealed bid auction is greater than entering an ascending for any risk averse bidder suggesting that we are seeing “overentry” into the ascending auctions

An Experimental Study of Information Revelation Policies in Sequential Auctions

Theoretical models of information asymmetry have identied a tradeoff between the desire to learn and the desire to prevent an opponent from learning private information. This paper reports a laboratory experiment that investigates if actual bidders account for this tradeoff, using a sequential procurement auction with private cost information and varying information revelation policies. Specically, the Complete Information Policy, where all submitted bids are revealed between auctions, is compared against the Incomplete Information Policy, where only the winning bid is revealed. The experimental results are largely consistent with the theoretical predictions. For example, bidders pool with other types to prevent an opponent from learning signicantly more often under a Complete Information Policy. Also as predicted, the procurer pays less when employing an Incomplete Information Policy only when the market is highly competitive. Bids are usually more aggressive than the risk neutral quantitative prediction, which is usually consistent with risk aversion.Complete and Incomplete Information Revelation Policies, Laboratory Study, Procurement Auction, Multistage Game

Essays in Behavioral Economics: Applying Prospect theory to Auctions

I explore the implications of reference-dependent preferences in sealed-bid auctions. In the first part, I develop a Prospect theory based model to explain bidding in first-price auctions. I show that bidding in induced-value first-price sealed-bid auctions can be rationalized as a combination of reactions to underlying ambiguity and anticipated loss aversion. Using data from experimental auctions, I provide evidence that in induced-value auctions with human bidders, this approach works well. In auctions with prior experience and /or against risk-neutral Nash rivals where ambiguity effects could be altogether irrelevant, anticipated loss aversion by itself can explain aggressive bidding. This is a novel result in the literature. Using data from experiments, I find that ambiguity effects become negligible in auctions with experienced human bidders against (i) experienced human rivals and (ii) Nash computer rivals, when loss aversion is taken in consideration. The estimates for loss aversion are similar in auctions with human bidders (with or without experience). Next, I extend my approach of anticipated loss aversion to address bidding outcomes in first- and second-price sealed-bid auctions. As shown in first part, the model predicts overbidding in first-price induced-value auctions consistent with evidence from most laboratory experiments. However, substantially different bidding behavior could result in commodity auctions where money and auction item are consumed along different dimensions of the consumption space. Differences also result in second-price auctions. The study thereby indicates that transferring qualitative behavioral findings from induced-value laboratory experiments to the field may be problematic if subjects are loss averse and anticipate such losses at the time of bidding. Finally, I explore the effect of resale or procurement opportunities, to which bidders have heterogeneous market access, on bidding in first- price sealed-bid auctions. My models suggest that in auctions with resale, loss aversion causes underbidding with respect to the risk-neutral-Nash prediction. Bidders with greatest level of market access are least affected by loss aversion and therefore bid closer to the risk-neutral-Nash than bidders with smaller market access. In auctions with procurement, the effect of loss aversion is such that it causes overbidding (underbidding) for bidders with respect to the risk-neutral-Nash. Bidders with greatest level of market access are again least affected by loss aversion and therefore bid much conservatively and closer to the risk-neutral-Nash than bidders with very low market access. If market access is interpreted as a proxy for experience, the predictions of my model are qualitatively similar to the findings in List (2003, 2004). Since these indirect effects are obtained without altering reference-dependent preferences, it raises the possibility that the effects obtained in List (2003, 2004) in field settings may not arise entirely due to the direct effect of experience on reference-dependent preferences. This calls for a more careful reexamination of the underlying issues

MEASURING REGRET: EMOTIONAL ASPECTS OF AUCTION DESIGN

Recent research strengthens the conjecture that human decision-making stems from a complex interaction of rational judgment and emotional processes. A prominent example of the impact of emotions in economic decision-making is the effect of regret-related information feedback on bidding behaviour in first-price sealed-bid auctions. Revealing the information “missed opportunity to win” upon losing an auction, results in higher bids. Revealing the information “money left on the table” upon winning an auction, results in lower bids. The common explanation for this pattern is winner and loser regret. However, this explanation is still hypothetical and little is known about the actual emotional processes that underlie this phenomenon. This paper investigates actual emotional processes in auctions with varying feedback information. Thereby, we provide an approach that combines an auction experiment with psychophysiological measures which indicate emotional involvement. Our economic results are in line with those of previous studies. Moreover, we can show that loser regret results in a stronger emotional response than winner regret. Remarkably, loser regret is strong for high values of “missed opportunity.” However, the pattern for different amounts of “money left on the table” is diametric to what winner regret theory suggests

Revenue Equivalence Revisited

The conventional wisdom in the auction design literature is that first price sealed bid auctions tend to make more money while ascending auctions tend to be more efficient. We re-examine these issues in an environment in which bidders are allowed to endogenously choose in which auction format to participate. Our findings are that more bidders choose to enter the ascending auction than the first price sealed bid auction and this extra entry is enough to make up the revenue difference between the formats. Consequently, we find that both formats raise approximately the same amount of revenue. They also generate efficiency levels and bidder earnings that are roughly equivalent across mechanisms though the earnings in the ascending might be slightly higher. In expected utility terms though, we find that the expected utility of entering a first price sealed bid auction is greater than entering an ascending for any risk averse bidder suggesting that we are seeing “overentry†into the ascending auctions.bidder preferences; private values; sealed bid auctions; ascending auctions; endogenous entry

Emotions and Emotion Regulation in Economic Decision Making

By employing the methodology of experimental economics, the thesis examines the influence of emotions on decision making in electronic auction markets. Subjects\u27 emotional processes are measured by psychophysiological indicators, helping to decipher the coherence of information, emotion (regulation) and decision making. Four chapters build the main body of the thesis and all are constructed similarly: introduction, design, method, results, limitations, theoretical and managerial implications

An Experimental Investigation of Auctions and Bargaining in Procurement

In reverse auctions, buyers often retain the right to bargain further concessions from the winners. The optimal form of such procurement is an English auction followed by an auctioneer's option to engage in ultimatum bargaining with the winners. We study behavior and performance in this procurement format using a laboratory experiment. Sellers closely follow the equilibrium strategy of exiting the auction at their costs and then accepting strictly profitable offers. Buyers generally exercise their option to bargain according to their equilibrium strategy, but their take-it-or-leave-it offers vary positively with auction prices when they should be invariant. We explain this deviation by modeling buyers' subjective posteriors regarding the winners' costs as distortions of the Bayesian posteriors, calculated using a formulation similar to a commonly used probability weighting function. We further test the robustness of the experimental results and the subjective posterior explanation with three additional experimental treatments