A Deterministic Analysis of an Online Convex Mixture of Expert Algorithms

Cataloged from PDF version of article.We analyze an online learning algorithm that adaptively combines outputs of two constituent algorithms (or the experts) running in parallel to model an unknown desired signal. This online learning algorithm is shown to achieve (and in some cases outperform) the mean-square error (MSE) performance of the best constituent algorithm in the mixture in the steady-state. However, the MSE analysis of this algorithm in the literature uses approximations and relies on statistical models on the underlying signals and systems. Hence, such an analysis may not be useful or valid for signals generated by various real life systems that show high degrees of nonstationarity, limit cycles and, in many cases, that are even chaotic. In this paper, we produce results in an individual sequence manner. In particular, we relate the time-accumulated squared estimation error of this online algorithm at any time over any interval to the time-accumulated squared estimation error of the optimal convex mixture of the constituent algorithms directly tuned to the underlying signal in a deterministic sense without any statistical assumptions. In this sense, our analysis provides the transient, steady-state and tracking behavior of this algorithm in a strong sense without any approximations in the derivations or statistical assumptions on the underlying signals such that our results are guaranteed to hold. We illustrate the introduced results through examples. © 2012 IEEE

A Second-order Bound with Excess Losses

We study online aggregation of the predictions of experts, and first show new second-order regret bounds in the standard setting, which are obtained via a version of the Prod algorithm (and also a version of the polynomially weighted average algorithm) with multiple learning rates. These bounds are in terms of excess losses, the differences between the instantaneous losses suffered by the algorithm and the ones of a given expert. We then demonstrate the interest of these bounds in the context of experts that report their confidences as a number in the interval [0,1] using a generic reduction to the standard setting. We conclude by two other applications in the standard setting, which improve the known bounds in case of small excess losses and show a bounded regret against i.i.d. sequences of losses

Relax and Localize: From Value to Algorithms

We show a principled way of deriving online learning algorithms from a minimax analysis. Various upper bounds on the minimax value, previously thought to be non-constructive, are shown to yield algorithms. This allows us to seamlessly recover known methods and to derive new ones. Our framework also captures such "unorthodox" methods as Follow the Perturbed Leader and the R^2 forecaster. We emphasize that understanding the inherent complexity of the learning problem leads to the development of algorithms. We define local sequential Rademacher complexities and associated algorithms that allow us to obtain faster rates in online learning, similarly to statistical learning theory. Based on these localized complexities we build a general adaptive method that can take advantage of the suboptimality of the observed sequence. We present a number of new algorithms, including a family of randomized methods that use the idea of a "random playout". Several new versions of the Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader algorithms are presented, as well as methods based on the Littlestone's dimension, efficient methods for matrix completion with trace norm, and algorithms for the problems of transductive learning and prediction with static experts

Massively Scalable Inverse Reinforcement Learning in Google Maps

Optimizing for humans' latent preferences is a grand challenge in route recommendation, where globally-scalable solutions remain an open problem. Although past work created increasingly general solutions for the application of inverse reinforcement learning (IRL), these have not been successfully scaled to world-sized MDPs, large datasets, and highly parameterized models; respectively hundreds of millions of states, trajectories, and parameters. In this work, we surpass previous limitations through a series of advancements focused on graph compression, parallelization, and problem initialization based on dominant eigenvectors. We introduce Receding Horizon Inverse Planning (RHIP), which generalizes existing work and enables control of key performance trade-offs via its planning horizon. Our policy achieves a 16-24% improvement in global route quality, and, to our knowledge, represents the largest instance of IRL in a real-world setting to date. Our results show critical benefits to more sustainable modes of transportation (e.g. two-wheelers), where factors beyond journey time (e.g. route safety) play a substantial role. We conclude with ablations of key components, negative results on state-of-the-art eigenvalue solvers, and identify future opportunities to improve scalability via IRL-specific batching strategies