9,843 research outputs found
Coherent frequentism
By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of
confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called
frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any
prior distribution. The closure of the set of expected losses corresponding to
the dual frequentist posteriors constrains decisions without arbitrarily
forcing optimization under all circumstances. This decision theory reduces to
those that maximize expected utility when the pair of frequentist posteriors is
induced by an exact or approximate confidence set estimator or when an
automatic reduction rule is applied to the pair. In such cases, the resulting
frequentist posterior is coherent in the sense that, as a probability
distribution of the parameter of interest, it satisfies the axioms of the
decision-theoretic and logic-theoretic systems typically cited in support of
the Bayesian posterior. Unlike the p-value, the confidence level of an interval
hypothesis derived from such a measure is suitable as an estimator of the
indicator of hypothesis truth since it converges in sample-space probability to
1 if the hypothesis is true or to 0 otherwise under general conditions.Comment: The confidence-measure theory of inference and decision is explicitly
extended to vector parameters of interest. The derivation of upper and lower
confidence levels from valid and nonconservative set estimators is formalize
Solving Tree Problems with Category Theory
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has long pursued models, theories, and
techniques to imbue machines with human-like general intelligence. Yet even the
currently predominant data-driven approaches in AI seem to be lacking humans'
unique ability to solve wide ranges of problems. This situation begs the
question of the existence of principles that underlie general problem-solving
capabilities. We approach this question through the mathematical formulation of
analogies across different problems and solutions. We focus in particular on
problems that could be represented as tree-like structures. Most importantly,
we adopt a category-theoretic approach in formalising tree problems as
categories, and in proving the existence of equivalences across apparently
unrelated problem domains. We prove the existence of a functor between the
category of tree problems and the category of solutions. We also provide a
weaker version of the functor by quantifying equivalences of problem categories
using a metric on tree problems.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, International Conference on Artificial General
Intelligence (AGI) 201
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