A Literature Review on Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes

Oleme läbi vaadanud mitmesuguseid ennetava jälgimise meetodeid äriprotsessides. Prognoositavate seirete eesmärk on aidata ettevõtetel oma eesmärke saavutada, aidata neil valida õige ärimudel, prognoosida tulemusi ja aega ning muuta äriprotsessid riskantsemaks. Antud väitekirjaga oleme hoolikalt kogunud ja üksikasjalikult läbi vaadanud selle väitekirja teemal oleva kirjanduse. Kirjandusuuringu tulemustest ja tähelepanekutest lähtuvalt oleme hoolikalt kavandanud ennetava jälgimisraamistiku. Raamistik on juhendiks ettevõtetele ja teadlastele, teadustöötajatele, kes uurivad selles valdkonnas ja ettevõtetele, kes soovivad neid tehnikaid oma valdkonnas rakendada.The goal of predictive monitoring is to help the business achieve their goals, help them take the right business path, predict outcomes, estimate delivery time, and make business processes risk aware. In this thesis, we have carefully collected and reviewed in detail all literature which falls in this process mining category. The objective of the thesis is to design a Predictive Monitoring Framework and classify the different predictive monitoring techniques. The framework acts as a guide for researchers and businesses. Researchers who are investigating in this field and businesses who want to apply these techniques in their respective field

Predictive Process Monitoring Methods: Which One Suits Me Best?

Predictive process monitoring has recently gained traction in academia and is maturing also in companies. However, with the growing body of research, it might be daunting for companies to navigate in this domain in order to find, provided certain data, what can be predicted and what methods to use. The main objective of this paper is developing a value-driven framework for classifying existing work on predictive process monitoring. This objective is achieved by systematically identifying, categorizing, and analyzing existing approaches for predictive process monitoring. The review is then used to develop a value-driven framework that can support organizations to navigate in the predictive process monitoring field and help them to find value and exploit the opportunities enabled by these analysis techniques

Cognitive finance: Behavioural strategies of spending, saving, and investing.

Research in economics is increasingly open to empirical results. The advances in behavioural approaches are expanded here by applying cognitive methods to financial questions. The field of "cognitive finance" is approached by the exploration of decision strategies in the financial settings of spending, saving, and investing. Individual strategies in these different domains are searched for and elaborated to derive explanations for observed irregularities in financial decision making. Strong context-dependency and adaptive learning form the basis for this cognition-based approach to finance. Experiments, ratings, and real world data analysis are carried out in specific financial settings, combining different research methods to improve the understanding of natural financial behaviour. People use various strategies in the domains of spending, saving, and investing. Specific spending profiles can be elaborated for a better understanding of individual spending differences. It was found that people differ along four dimensions of spending, which can be labelled: General Leisure, Regular Maintenance, Risk Orientation, and Future Orientation. Saving behaviour is strongly dependent on how people mentally structure their finance and on their self-control attitude towards decision space restrictions, environmental cues, and contingency structures. Investment strategies depend on how companies, in which investments are placed, are evaluated on factors such as Honesty, Prestige, Innovation, and Power. Further on, different information integration strategies can be learned in decision situations with direct feedback. The mapping of cognitive processes in financial decision making is discussed and adaptive learning mechanisms are proposed for the observed behavioural differences. The construal of a "financial personality" is proposed in accordance with other dimensions of personality measures, to better acknowledge and predict variations in financial behaviour. This perspective enriches economic theories and provides a useful ground for improving individual financial services

ORANGE: Outcome-Oriented Predictive Process Monitoring Based on Image Encoding and CNNs

The outcome-oriented predictive process monitoring is a family of predictive process mining techniques that have witnessed rapid development and increasing adoption in the past few years. Boosted by the recent successful applications of deep learning in predictive process mining, we propose ORANGE, a novel deep learning method for learning outcome-oriented predictive process models. The main innovation of this study is that we adopt an imagery representation of the ongoing traces, which delineates potential data patterns that arise at neighbour pixels. Leveraging a collection of images representing ongoing traces, we train a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict the outcome of an ongoing trace. The empirical study shows the feasibility of the proposed method by investigating its accuracy on different benchmark outcome prediction problems in comparison to state-of-art competitor methods. In addition, we show how ORANGE can be integrated as an Intelligent Assistant into a CVM realized by MTM Project srl company to support sales agents in their negotiations. This case study shows that ORANGE can be effectively used to smartly monitor the outcome of ongoing negotiations by early highlighting negotiations that are candidate to be completed successfully

Investigating the Relationship between IT and Organizations: A Research Trilogy

The overall objective of this dissertation is to contribute to knowledge and theory about the influence of information technology (IT) on organizations and their members. This dissertation is composed of three related studies, each examining different aspects of the relationship between IT and organizations. The objective of the first study is to provide an overview of the dominant theoretical perspectives that IS researchers have used in the last five decades to study the influence of technology on organizations and their members. Without being exhaustive, this study seeks more specifically to identify, for each decade, the dominant theoretical perspectives used in the IS field. These dominant theoretical perspectives are illustrated by the selection and description of exemplars published in the decade and their implications for researchers and practitioners are discussed. This review is useful not only for understanding past trends and the current state of research in this area but also to foresee its future directions and guide researchers in their future research on the influence of IT on organizations and their members. The objective of the second study is to theorize how IT artifacts influence the design and performance of organizational routines. This study adopts organizational routines theory as its theoretical lens. Organizational routines represent an important part of almost every organization and organizational routines theory is an influential theory that explains how the accomplishment of organizational routines can contribute to both organizational stability and change. However, the current form of this theory has several limitations such as its neglect of the material aspect of artifacts and the distinctive characteristics of IT artifacts, and its treatment of artifacts as outside of organizational routines. This study seeks to overcome these limitations by extending organizational routines theory. The objective of the third study is to develop a better understanding of information security standards by analyzing the structure, nature and content of their controls. This study investigates also the mechanisms used in the design of information security standards to make them both applicable to a wide range of organizations and adaptable to various specific organizational settings. The results of this study led to the proposition of a new theory for information systems called generative control theory

A Novel Business Process Prediction Model Using a DeepLearning Method

The ability to proactively monitor business pro-cesses is a main competitive differentiator for firms. Processexecution logs generated by process aware informationsystems help to make process specific predictions forenabling a proactive situational awareness. The goal of theproposed approach is to predict the next process event fromthe completed activities of the running process instance,based on the execution log data from previously completedprocess instances. By predicting process events, companiescan initiate timely interventions to address undesired devi-ations from the desired workflow. The paper proposes amulti-stage deep learning approach that formulates the nextevent prediction problem as a classification problem. Fol-lowing a feature pre-processing stage with n-grams andfeature hashing, a deep learning model consisting of anunsupervised pre-training component with stacked autoen-coders and a supervised fine-tuning component is applied.Experiments on a variety of business process log datasetsshow that the multi-stage deep learning approach providespromising results. The study also compared the results toexisting deep recurrent neural networks and conventionalclassification approaches. Furthermore, the paper addressesthe identification of suitable hyperparameters for the pro-posed approach, and the handling of the imbalanced nature ofbusiness process event datasets

Äriprotsesside ajaliste näitajate selgitatav ennustav jälgimine

Kaasaegsed ettevõtte infosüsteemid võimaldavad ettevõtetel koguda detailset informatsiooni äriprotsesside täitmiste kohta. Eelnev koos masinõppe meetoditega võimaldab kasutada andmejuhitavaid ja ennustatavaid lähenemisi äriprotsesside jõudluse jälgimiseks. Kasutades ennustuslike äriprotsesside jälgimise tehnikaid on võimalik jõudluse probleeme ennustada ning soovimatu tegurite mõju ennetavalt leevendada. Tüüpilised küsimused, millega tegeleb ennustuslik protsesside jälgimine on “millal antud äriprotsess lõppeb?” või “mis on kõige tõenäolisem järgmine sündmus antud äriprotsessi jaoks?”. Suurim osa olemasolevatest lahendustest eelistavad täpsust selgitatavusele. Praktikas, selgitatavus on ennustatavate tehnikate tähtis tunnus. Ennustused, kas protsessi täitmine ebaõnnestub või selle täitmisel võivad tekkida raskused, pole piisavad. On oluline kasutajatele seletada, kuidas on selline ennustuse tulemus saavutatud ning mida saab teha soovimatu tulemuse ennetamiseks. Töö pakub välja kaks meetodit ennustatavate mudelite konstrueerimiseks, mis võimaldavad jälgida äriprotsesse ning keskenduvad selgitatavusel. Seda saavutatakse ennustuse lahtivõtmisega elementaarosadeks. Näiteks, kui ennustatakse, et äriprotsessi lõpuni on jäänud aega 20 tundi, siis saame anda seletust, et see aeg on moodustatud kõikide seni käsitlemata tegevuste lõpetamiseks vajalikust ajast. Töös võrreldakse omavahel eelmainitud meetodeid, käsitledes äriprotsesse erinevatest valdkondadest. Hindamine toob esile erinevusi selgitatava ja täpsusele põhinevale lähenemiste vahel. Töö teaduslik panus on ennustuslikuks protsesside jälgimiseks vabavaralise tööriista arendamine. Süsteemi nimeks on Nirdizati ning see süsteem võimaldab treenida ennustuslike masinõppe mudeleid, kasutades nii töös kirjeldatud meetodeid kui ka kolmanda osapoole meetodeid. Hiljem saab treenitud mudeleid kasutada hetkel käivate äriprotsesside tulemuste ennustamiseks, mis saab aidata kasutajaid reaalajas.Modern enterprise systems collect detailed data about the execution of the business processes they support. The widespread availability of such data in companies, coupled with advances in machine learning, have led to the emergence of data-driven and predictive approaches to monitor the performance of business processes. By using such predictive process monitoring approaches, potential performance issues can be anticipated and proactively mitigated. Various approaches have been proposed to address typical predictive process monitoring questions, such as what is the most likely continuation of an ongoing process instance, or when it will finish. However, most existing approaches prioritize accuracy over explainability. Yet in practice, explainability is a critical property of predictive methods. It is not enough to accurately predict that a running process instance will end up in an undesired outcome. It is also important for users to understand why this prediction is made and what can be done to prevent this undesired outcome. This thesis proposes two methods to build predictive models to monitor business processes in an explainable manner. This is achieved by decomposing a prediction into its elementary components. For example, to explain that the remaining execution time of a process execution is predicted to be 20 hours, we decompose this prediction into the predicted execution time of each activity that has not yet been executed. We evaluate the proposed methods against each other and various state-of-the-art baselines using a range of business processes from multiple domains. The evaluation reaffirms a fundamental trade-off between explainability and accuracy of predictions. The research contributions of the thesis have been consolidated into an open-source tool for predictive business process monitoring, namely Nirdizati. It can be used to train predictive models using the methods described in this thesis, as well as third-party methods. These models are then used to make predictions for ongoing process instances; thus, the tool can also support users at runtime

Context-Aware Process Performance Indicator Prediction

It is well-known that context impacts running instances of a process. Thus, defining and using contextual information may help to improve the predictive monitoring of business processes, which is one of the main challenges in process mining. However, identifying this contextual information is not an easy task because it might change depending on the target of the prediction. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology named CAP3 (Context-aware Process Performance indicator Prediction) which involves two phases. The first phase guides process analysts on identifying the context for the predictive monitoring of process performance indicators (PPIs), which are quantifiable metrics focused on measuring the progress of strategic objectives aimed to improve the process. The second phase involves a context-aware predictive monitoring technique that incorporates the relevant context information as input for the prediction. Our methodology leverages context-oriented domain knowledge and experts’ feedback to discover the contextual information useful to improve the quality of PPI prediction with a decrease of error rates in most cases, by adding this information as features to the datasets used as input of the predictive monitoring process. We experimentally evaluated our approach using two-real-life organizations. Process experts from both organizations applied CAP3 methodology and identified the contextual information to be used for prediction. The model learned using this information achieved lower error rates in most cases than the model learned without contextual information confirming the benefits of CAP3.European Union Horizon 2020 No. 645751 (RISE BPM)Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades Horatio RTI2018-101204-B-C21Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades OPHELIA RTI2018-101204-B-C2