Forecasting tools and probabilistic scheduling approach incorporatins renewables uncertainty for the insular power systems industry

Nowadays, the paradigm shift in the electricity sector and the advent of the smart grid, along with the growing impositions of a gradual reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, pose numerous challenges related with the sustainable management of power systems. The insular power systems industry is heavily dependent on imported energy, namely fossil fuels, and also on seasonal tourism behavior, which strongly influences the local economy. In comparison with the mainland power system, the behavior of insular power systems is highly influenced by the stochastic nature of the renewable energy sources available. The insular electricity grid is particularly sensitive to power quality parameters, mainly to frequency and voltage deviations, and a greater integration of endogenous renewables potential in the power system may affect the overall reliability and security of energy supply, so singular care should be placed in all forecasting and system operation procedures. The goals of this thesis are focused on the development of new decision support tools, for the reliable forecasting of market prices and wind power, for the optimal economic dispatch and unit commitment considering renewable generation, and for the smart control of energy storage systems. The new methodologies developed are tested in real case studies, demonstrating their computational proficiency comparatively to the current state-of-the-art

Recent Approaches of Forecasting and Optimal Economic Dispatch to Overcome Intermittency of Wind and Photovoltaic (PV) Systems:A Review

Renewable energy sources (RESs) are the replacement of fast depleting, environment polluting, costly, and unsustainable fossil fuels. RESs themselves have various issues such as variable supply towards the load during different periods, and mostly they are available at distant locations from load centers. This paper inspects forecasting techniques, employed to predict the RESs availability during different periods and considers the dispatch mechanisms for the supply, extracted from these resources. Firstly, we analyze the application of stochastic distributions especially the Weibull distribution (WD), for forecasting both wind and PV power potential, with and without incorporating neural networks (NN). Secondly, a review of the optimal economic dispatch (OED) of RES using particle swarm optimization (PSO) is presented. The reviewed techniques will be of great significance for system operators that require to gauge and pre-plan flexibility competence for their power systems to ensure practical and economical operation under high penetration of RESs

Microgrid Energy Management with Flexibility Constraints: A Data-Driven Solution Method

Microgrid energy management is a challenging and important problem in modern power systems. Several deterministic and stochastic models have been proposed in the literature for the microgrid energy management problem. However, more accurate models are required to enhance flexibility of the microgrids when accounting for renewable energy and load uncertainties. This thesis proposes key contributions to solve the energy management problem for smart building (or small-scale microgrid). In Chapter 3, a deterministic energy management model is presented taking into account system flexibility requirements. Energy storage systems are deployed to enhance the grid flexibility and ramping capability. The objective function of the formulated optimization is to minimize the operation cost. Combined heat and power (CHP) units, which interconnect heat and electricity, are modeled. Thus, electricity and thermal generation and load constraints are formulated. To account for uncertainties of load and renewable energy resources (e.g., solar generation), a stochastic energy management model is proposed in Chapter 4. A data-driven chance-constrained optimization is based method is formulated. The proposed model is nonparametric that imposes no assumption on probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the random variables (i.e., load and renewable generation). Adaptive kernel density estimation is deployed to estimate a nonparametric PDF for each random variable. Confidence levels (risk levels) of the chance constraints are modified according to estimation errors. Several cases are simulated to analyze the deterministic and stochastic optimization models. The simulation results show that the proposed data-driven chance-constrained optimization with the flexibility constraints enhance reliability, resiliency, and economics of the microgrid energy systems. Note that these flexibility constraints avoid propagating solar and load fluctuations to the distribution feeder. That is smart building (microgrid) is capable of capturing fluctuations locally

A two-stage framework for short-term wind power forecasting using different feature-learning models

With the growing dependence on wind power generation, improving the accuracy of short-term forecasting has become increasingly important for ensuring continued economical and reliable system operations. In the wind power forecasting field, ensemble-based forecasting models have been studied extensively; however, few of them considered learning the features from both historical wind data and NWP data. In addition, the exploration of the multiple-input and multiple-output learning structures is lacking in the wind power forecasting literature. Therefore, this study exploits the NWP and historical wind data as input and proposes a two-stage forecasting framework on the shelf of moving window algorithm. Specifically, at the first stage, four forecasting models are constructed with deep neural networks considering the multiple-input and multiple-output structures; at the second stage, an ensemble model is developed using ridge regression method for reducing the extrapolation error. The experiments are conducted on three existing wind farms for examining the 2-h ahead forecasting point. The results demonstrate that 1) the single-input-multiple-output (SIMO) structure leads to a better forecasting accuracy than the other threes; 2) ridge regression method results in a better ensemble model that is able to further improve the forecasting accuracy, than the other machine learning methods; 3) the proposed two-stage forecasting framework is likely to generate more accurate and stable results than the other existing algorithms