Data-Driven Modeling, Control and Tools for Cyber-Physical Energy Systems

Energy systems are experiencing a gradual but substantial change in moving away from being non-interactive and manually-controlled systems to utilizing tight integration of both cyber (computation, communications, and control) and physical representations guided by first principles based models, at all scales and levels. Furthermore, peak power reduction programs like demand response (DR) are becoming increasingly important as the volatility on the grid continues to increase due to regulation, integration of renewables and extreme weather conditions. In order to shield themselves from the risk of price volatility, end-user electricity consumers must monitor electricity prices and be flexible in the ways they choose to use electricity. This requires the use of control-oriented predictive models of an energy system’s dynamics and energy consumption. Such models are needed for understanding and improving the overall energy efficiency and operating costs. However, learning dynamical models using grey/white box approaches is very cost and time prohibitive since it often requires significant financial investments in retrofitting the system with several sensors and hiring domain experts for building the model. We present the use of data-driven methods for making model capture easy and efficient for cyber-physical energy systems. We develop Model-IQ, a methodology for analysis of uncertainty propagation for building inverse modeling and controls. Given a grey-box model structure and real input data from a temporary set of sensors, Model-IQ evaluates the effect of the uncertainty propagation from sensor data to model accuracy and to closed-loop control performance. We also developed a statistical method to quantify the bias in the sensor measurement and to determine near optimal sensor placement and density for accurate data collection for model training and control. Using a real building test-bed, we show how performing an uncertainty analysis can reveal trends about inverse model accuracy and control performance, which can be used to make informed decisions about sensor requirements and data accuracy. We also present DR-Advisor, a data-driven demand response recommender system for the building\u27s facilities manager which provides suitable control actions to meet the desired load curtailment while maintaining operations and maximizing the economic reward. We develop a model based control with regression trees algorithm (mbCRT), which allows us to perform closed-loop control for DR strategy synthesis for large commercial buildings. Our data-driven control synthesis algorithm outperforms rule-based demand response methods for a large DoE commercial reference building and leads to a significant amount of load curtailment (of 380kW) and over $45,000 in savings which is 37.9% of the summer energy bill for the building. The performance of DR-Advisor is also evaluated for 8 buildings on Penn\u27s campus; where it achieves 92.8% to 98.9% prediction accuracy. We also compare DR-Advisor with other data driven methods and rank 2nd on ASHRAE\u27s benchmarking data-set for energy prediction

A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration

Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science

Support Vector Machine in Prediction of Building Energy Demand Using Pseudo Dynamic Approach

Building's energy consumption prediction is a major concern in the recent years and many efforts have been achieved in order to improve the energy management of buildings. In particular, the prediction of energy consumption in building is essential for the energy operator to build an optimal operating strategy, which could be integrated to building's energy management system (BEMS). This paper proposes a prediction model for building energy consumption using support vector machine (SVM). Data-driven model, for instance, SVM is very sensitive to the selection of training data. Thus the relevant days data selection method based on Dynamic Time Warping is used to train SVM model. In addition, to encompass thermal inertia of building, pseudo dynamic model is applied since it takes into account information of transition of energy consumption effects and occupancy profile. Relevant days data selection and whole training data model is applied to the case studies of Ecole des Mines de Nantes, France Office building. The results showed that support vector machine based on relevant data selection method is able to predict the energy consumption of building with a high accuracy in compare to whole data training. In addition, relevant data selection method is computationally cheaper (around 8 minute training time) in contrast to whole data training (around 31 hour for weekend and 116 hour for working days) and reveals realistic control implementation for online system as well.Comment: Proceedings of ECOS 2015-The 28th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems , Jun 2015, Pau, Franc

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty

INTELLIGENT DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING ENERGY SYSTEMS

Building energy performance has emerged as a major issue in recent years due to growing concerns over costs, resource limitations, and the potential impact on climate. According to the 2011 Buildings Energy Data Book (prepared by D&R International, Ltd. for the US Department of Energy, March 2012), the built environment demands about 41% of primary energy in the United States [1]. Given the emergence of modern sensing technologies and low-cost data-processing capabilities, there is a growing interest in better managing and controlling consumption within buildings. Estimates suggest that the simple act of continuous monitoring can lead to improvements on the order of 20% [118]. To further reduce and better control energy consumption, one can turn to the use of real-time energy-performance modeling. This thesis adopts the view that smaller buildings (i.e. homes and smaller commercial facilities), which represent more than half of the sector’s consumption, provide a rich opportunity for low-cost monitoring solutions. The real advantage lies in the growth of so-called smart meters for demand monitoring and advanced sensing for improved load control. In particular, this thesis considers the use of a small sensor package for the creation of autonomously developed, data-driven thermal models. Such models can be used to predict and control the consumption of space heating and cooling equipment, which currently represent about 50% of residential consumption in the United States. The key contribution of this work is the real-time identification of thermal parameters in homes using only two temperature sensors, solar irradiance measurements, and a power meter with load-tracking capabilities. The proposed identification technique uses the Prediction Error Method (PEM) to find a Multiple Input Single Output (MISO) state-space model. Two different models have been devised, and both have been field tested. The first focuses on energy forecasting and enables various diagnostic features; the other is formulated for more advanced capacity controls in vapor-compression air conditioners. A Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme has been implemented and shown in simulation to yield energy reductions on the order of 30% over typical thermostatic control schemes. Similarly, the diagnostic model has been used to detect capacity degradation in operational units

Learning occupants’ indoor comfort temperature through a Bayesian inference approach for office buildings in United States

A carefully chosen indoor comfort temperature as the thermostat set-point is the key to optimizing building energy use and occupants’ comfort and well-being. ASHRAE Standard 55 or ISO Standard 7730 uses the PMV-PPD model or the adaptive comfort model that is based on small-sized or outdated sample data, which raises questions on whether and how ranges of occupant thermal comfort temperature should be revised using more recent larger-sized dataset. In this paper, a Bayesian inference approach has been used to derive new occupant comfort temperature ranges for U.S. office buildings using the ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database. Bayesian inference can express uncertainty and incorporate prior knowledge. The comfort temperatures were found to be higher and less variable at cooling mode than at heating mode, and with significant overlapped variation ranges between the two modes. The comfort operative temperature of occupants varies between 21.9 and 25.4 °C for the cooling mode with a median of 23.7 °C, and between 20.5 and 24.9 °C for the heating mode with a median of 22.7 °C. These comfort temperature ranges are similar to the current ASHRAE standard 55 in the heating mode but 2–3 °C lower in the cooling mode. The results of this study could be adopted as more realistic thermostat set-points in building design, operation, control optimization, energy performance analysis, and policymaking

Comfort driven adaptive window opening behaviour and the influence of building design

It is important to understand and model the behaviour of occupants in buildings and how this behaviour impacts energy use and comfort. It is similarly important to understand how a buildings design affects occupant comfort, occupant behaviour and ultimately the energy used in the operation of the building. In this work a behavioural algorithm for window opening developed from field survey data has been implemented in a dynamic simulation tool. The algorithm is in alignment with the proposed CEN standard for adaptive thermal comfort. The algorithm is first compared to the field study data then used to illustrate the impact of adaptive behaviour on summer indoor temperatures and heating energy. The simulation model is also used to illustrate the sensitivity of the occupant adaptive behaviour to building design parameters such as solar shading and thermal mass and the resulting impact on energy use and comfort. The results are compared to those from other approaches to model window opening behaviour. The adaptive algorithm is shown to provide insights not available using non adaptive simulation methods and can assist in achieving more comfortable and lower energy buildings