Calibration: Respice, Adspice, Prospice

“Those who claim for themselves to judge the truth are bound to possess a criterion of truth.” JEL Code: C18, C53, D89calibration, prediction

Predictive Complexity for Games with Finite Outcome Spaces

Predictive complexity is a generalisation of Kolmogorov complexity motivated by an on-line prediction scenario. It quantifies “unpredictability ” of a sequence in a particular prediction environment. This paper surveys key results on predictive complexity for games with finitely many outcomes. The issues of existence, non-existence, uniqueness, and linear inequalities are covered.

Simplicity, scientific inference and econometric modelling

Economic Schools;Econometric Models;Economic Methodology

The Fundamental Nature of the Log Loss Function

The standard loss functions used in the literature on probabilistic prediction are the log loss function, the Brier loss function, and the spherical loss function; however, any computable proper loss function can be used for comparison of prediction algorithms. This note shows that the log loss function is most selective in that any prediction algorithm that is optimal for a given data sequence (in the sense of the algorithmic theory of randomness) under the log loss function will be optimal under any computable proper mixable loss function; on the other hand, there is a data sequence and a prediction algorithm that is optimal for that sequence under either of the two other standard loss functions but not under the log loss function.Comment: 12 page

Back to the Future: Economic Self-Organisation and Maximum Entropy Prediction

This paper shows that signal restoration methodology is appropriate for predicting the equilibrium state of certain economic systems. A formal justification for this is provided by proving the existence of finite improvement paths in object allocation problems under weak assumptions on preferences, linking any initial condition to a Nash equilibrium. Because a finite improvement path is made up of a sequence of systematic best-responses, backwards movement from the equilibrium back to the initial condition can be treated like the realisation of a noise process. This underpins the use of signal restoration to predict the equilibrium from the initial condition, and an illustration is provided through an application of maximum entropy signal restoration to the Schelling model of segregation

Feature Reinforcement Learning: Part I: Unstructured MDPs

General-purpose, intelligent, learning agents cycle through sequences of observations, actions, and rewards that are complex, uncertain, unknown, and non-Markovian. On the other hand, reinforcement learning is well-developed for small finite state Markov decision processes (MDPs). Up to now, extracting the right state representations out of bare observations, that is, reducing the general agent setup to the MDP framework, is an art that involves significant effort by designers. The primary goal of this work is to automate the reduction process and thereby significantly expand the scope of many existing reinforcement learning algorithms and the agents that employ them. Before we can think of mechanizing this search for suitable MDPs, we need a formal objective criterion. The main contribution of this article is to develop such a criterion. I also integrate the various parts into one learning algorithm. Extensions to more realistic dynamic Bayesian networks are developed in Part II. The role of POMDPs is also considered there.Comment: 24 LaTeX pages, 5 diagram

Is Virtual Marriage Acceptable? A Psychological Study Investigating The Role of Ambiguity Tolerance and Intimacy Illusion in Online Dating among Adolescents and Early Adults

Marriage is one of the most important topics in the education field since life in this world is structured by interaction among families and between families and other social institutions. Dissatisfaction and unsustainability of marriage have led the urgency of premarital education in various countries. The problem is that the spread of virtual reality has made marriage itself to become more complex and experience reinterpretation and reconfiguration, moreover with the emergence of new kind of marriage in the digital era, i.e. virtual marriage. Everybody who has observed, known, or even tried, certainly asks the question, “Could (or: should) I accept virtual marriage?” . This study was aimed to investigate the role of tolerance of ambiguity and illusion of intimacy in online dating in predicting the acceptance of virtual marriage. There were 420 adolescents and young adults (212 males, 208 females; Mage=21.10 years old, SDage=1.459 years; 338 students, 82 employees or entrepreneurs) in the Greater Jakarta, Indonesia, participated in this study. It was found that the acceptance was not predicted by the ambiguity tolerance, but by the illusion of intimacy in online dating. The psychometric issues, substantive discussion, and recommendation are presented at the end of this article. The trend of virtual marriage should not be allowed to roll away, by autopilot, without loaded by strategies in designing an online game as one of the pivotal educational technologies that needs to shape appropriate character and attitude for it