Did Social-Distancing Measures in Kentucky Help to Flatten the COVID-19 Curve?

In the absence of a vaccine or more effective treatment options, containing the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) must rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions. All U.S. states adopted social-distancing measures in March and April of 2020, though they varied in both timing and scope. Kentucky began by closing public schools and restaurant dining rooms on March 16th before progressing to closing other non-essential businesses and eventually issuing a “Healthy at Home” order with restrictions similar to the shelter-in-place (SIPO) orders adopted by other states. We aim to quantify the impact of these measures on COVID-19 case growth in the state. An event-study model allows us to link adoption of social distancing measures across the Midwest and South to the growth rate of cases, allowing for effects to emerge gradually to account for the lag between infection and positive test result. We then use the results to predict how the number of cases would have evolved in Kentucky in the absence of these policy measures – in other words, if the state had relied on voluntary social distancing alone. We estimate that, by April 25, Kentucky would have had 44,482 confirmed COVID-19 cases without social distancing restrictions, as opposed to the 3,857 actually observed

Predictive power of wastewater for nowcasting infectious disease transmission: A retrospective case study of five sewershed areas in Louisville, Kentucky

Background: Epidemiological nowcasting traditionally relies on count surveillance data. The availability and quality of such count data may vary over time, limiting representation of true infections. Wastewater data correlates with traditional surveillance data and may provide additional value for nowcasting disease trends. Methods: We obtained SARS-CoV-2 case, death, wastewater, and serosurvey data for Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA), between August 2020 and March 2021, and parameterized an existing nowcasting model using combinations of these data. We assessed the predictive performance and variability at the sewershed level and compared the effects of adding or replacing wastewater data to case and death reports. Findings: Adding wastewater data minimally improved the predictive performance of nowcasts compared to a model fitted to case and death data (Weighted Interval Score (WIS) 0.208 versus 0.223), and reduced the predictive performance compared to a model fitted to deaths data (WIS 0.517 versus 0.500). Adding wastewater data to deaths data improved the nowcasts agreement to estimates from models using cases and deaths data. These findings were consistent across individual sewersheds as well as for models fit to the aggregated total data of 5 sewersheds. Retrospective reconstructions of epidemiological dynamics created using different combinations of data were in general agreement (coverage \u3e75%). Interpretation: These findings show wastewater data may be valuable for infectious disease nowcasting when clinical surveillance data are absent, such as early in a pandemic or in low-resource settings where systematic collection of epidemiologic data is difficult

A literature review of paid sick leave and disparate populations in the United States during the COVID pandemic

The COVID pandemic is providing many public health and health policy learning opportunities to identify disparities among women, minorities, and underserved/distressed populations and inform subsequent policy-level strategies. It is recommended people stay home when they are sick; yet, not all people have access to paid sick leave. Individuals are left with the unfortunate decision to lose pay or go to work when they are ill. This is disconcerting in any given year with the annual flu illness and other communicable diseases; however, especially concerning during the COVID pandemic given the high virus transmissibility. Paid sick leave is not universally accessible at a federal level yet was a temporary solution to bridge this gap during COVID. This literature review aims to provide additional context for state and federal legislation of a paid sick leave policy with findings thematically organized. Furthermore, the review proposes a cross-sectional study to identify specific disparities in working-age adults in the rural Nebraska Panhandle to accessing paid sick leave, increasing the evidence-base of public health, and informing a long-term state and/or federal paid sick leave strategy

Nowcasting and Forecasting COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Using Twitter Sentiment

Real-time access to information during a pandemic is crucial for mobilizing a response. A sentiment analysis of Twitter posts from the first 90 days of the COVID-19 pandemic was conducted. In particular, 2 million English tweets were collected from users in the United States that contained the word ‘covid’ between January 1, 2020 and March 31, 2020. Sentiments were used to model the new case and death counts using data from this time. The results of linear regression and k-nearest neighbors indicate that public sentiments on social media accurately predict both same-day and near future counts of both COVID-19 cases and deaths. Public health officials can use this knowledge to assist in responding to adverse public health events. Additionally, implications for future research and theorizing of social media’s impact on health behaviors are discussed

UD Day: Impending Evictions and Homelessness in Los Angeles

Well before the COVID-19 pandemic, Los Angeles was a hotspot of growing homelessness and severe housing insecurity for renter households. A stark manifestation of race and class inequality, this crisis is now set to get much worse. This UCLA Luskin Institute on Inequality and Democracy report, UD Day: Impending Evictions and Homelessness in Los Angeles, authored by Gary Blasi, Professor Emeritus at UCLA Law, projects a surge in evictions and homelessness that will follow the lifting of COVID-19 emergency orders. As argued in the report, and as repeatedly noted by community organizations and legal and policy advocates, such devastation could have been avoided through robust tenant protections, rent relief, and eviction moratoria at local, state, and federal levels of government. The first publication in our Housing Justice in the Time of COVID-19 series, the report foregrounds the urgency of organizing and pressing public officials at all levels of government to plan and prepare for a potential humanitarian disaster of hunger and homelessness on a scale not seen in any urban area of any industrialized country in the past 90 years