Holistic Measures for Evaluating Prediction Models in Smart Grids

The performance of prediction models is often based on "abstract metrics" that estimate the model's ability to limit residual errors between the observed and predicted values. However, meaningful evaluation and selection of prediction models for end-user domains requires holistic and application-sensitive performance measures. Inspired by energy consumption prediction models used in the emerging "big data" domain of Smart Power Grids, we propose a suite of performance measures to rationally compare models along the dimensions of scale independence, reliability, volatility and cost. We include both application independent and dependent measures, the latter parameterized to allow customization by domain experts to fit their scenario. While our measures are generalizable to other domains, we offer an empirical analysis using real energy use data for three Smart Grid applications: planning, customer education and demand response, which are relevant for energy sustainability. Our results underscore the value of the proposed measures to offer a deeper insight into models' behavior and their impact on real applications, which benefit both data mining researchers and practitioners.Comment: 14 Pages, 8 figures, Accepted and to appear in IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 2014. Authors' final version. Copyright transferred to IEE

Cooperation and Storage Tradeoffs in Power-Grids with Renewable Energy Resources

One of the most important challenges in smart grid systems is the integration of renewable energy resources into its design. In this work, two different techniques to mitigate the time varying and intermittent nature of renewable energy generation are considered. The first one is the use of storage, which smooths out the fluctuations in the renewable energy generation across time. The second technique is the concept of distributed generation combined with cooperation by exchanging energy among the distributed sources. This technique averages out the variation in energy production across space. This paper analyzes the trade-off between these two techniques. The problem is formulated as a stochastic optimization problem with the objective of minimizing the time average cost of energy exchange within the grid. First, an analytical model of the optimal cost is provided by investigating the steady state of the system for some specific scenarios. Then, an algorithm to solve the cost minimization problem using the technique of Lyapunov optimization is developed and results for the performance of the algorithm are provided. These results show that in the presence of limited storage devices, the grid can benefit greatly from cooperation, whereas in the presence of large storage capacity, cooperation does not yield much benefit. Further, it is observed that most of the gains from cooperation can be obtained by exchanging energy only among a few energy harvesting sources

Scenarios for the development of smart grids in the UK: synthesis report

‘Smart grid’ is a catch-all term for the smart options that could transform the ways society produces, delivers and consumes energy, and potentially the way we conceive of these services. Delivering energy more intelligently will be fundamental to decarbonising the UK electricity system at least possible cost, while maintaining security and reliability of supply. Smarter energy delivery is expected to allow the integration of more low carbon technologies and to be much more cost effective than traditional methods, as well as contributing to economic growth by opening up new business and innovation opportunities. Innovating new options for energy system management could lead to cost savings of up to £10bn, even if low carbon technologies do not emerge. This saving will be much higher if UK renewable energy targets are achieved. Building on extensive expert feedback and input, this report describes four smart grid scenarios which consider how the UK’s electricity system might develop to 2050. The scenarios outline how political decisions, as well as those made in regulation, finance, technology, consumer and social behaviour, market design or response, might affect the decisions of other actors and limit or allow the availability of future options. The project aims to explore the degree of uncertainty around the current direction of the electricity system and the complex interactions of a whole host of factors that may lead to any one of a wide range of outcomes. Our addition to this discussion will help decision makers to understand the implications of possible actions and better plan for the future, whilst recognising that it may take any one of a number of forms