Microeconomic Motives of Land Use Change in Coastal Zone Area: Agent Based Modelling Approach

Economic growth causes growing urbanization, extension of tourist sector, infrastructure and change of natural landscape. These processes of land use change attract even more attention if they take place in coastal zone area. In that case not only the efficient allocation and preservation of natural area, but also reduction of potential damage from flooding is important. Driven forces of land use at macro and micro levels should be taken into account. This paper presents an agent based model (ABM), which is designed to simulate land use change in coastal zone area based of human behaviour. The aim is to understand motives, types of connections and interactions between different actors and natural environment in order to get a feeling how different policy options and natural conditions might affect land use configuration. Microeconomic motives of land use decisions are in the focus of the research. Individual land use decisions are guided by economic and geomorphologic conditions, spatial planning and coastal protection policy. Each location choice is done according to a set of defined rules and land attributes. Space is represented as a grid of cells. Self-interested economic agents interact with each other trying to benefit from a certain type of land-use. We introduce the perception of risk of flooding in the model of land use as an innovative aspect of ABM simulations for water management problems. Based on decisions of spatially distributed individual economic agents operating in a policy framework, the model produces aggregated land-use patterns as an outcome. Understanding the factors that affect land use decisions will help policy makers design incentives to achieve policy objectives in coastal zone area. The proposed ABM will be applied to a study area in the province of North Holland in the Netherlands

GIS-based approach for assessing the energy potential and the financial feasibility of run-off-river hydro-power in Alpine valleys

In the last decade, European attractive policies are favoring the construction of new run-off hydro-power plants. The realization cost of these plants is quite low in mountain areas thanks to small water discharges and high gross heads. For this reason, small rivers have been strongly exploited without considering an optimal use of the resource. Nowadays, available sites are often in areas with low accessibility and a greater specific cost of civil engineering works. However, during the planning of new small hydro-power plants, the dependency of physical, technical, legal and financial variable on space is often not assessed. The tool presented in this paper addresses this gap to support the planning of run-off-river plants. The method improves on previous approaches by (1) integrating all the legal, technical and financial analysis in a GIS tool, and (2) trying to validate the site-specific model with local knowledge. The tool is applied to the Gesso and Vermenagna valleys in the Alps. Information and data were collected and discussed with local stakeholders in order to improve the model results