Software defect prediction: do different classifiers find the same defects?

Open Access: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License CC BY 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.During the last 10 years, hundreds of different defect prediction models have been published. The performance of the classifiers used in these models is reported to be similar with models rarely performing above the predictive performance ceiling of about 80% recall. We investigate the individual defects that four classifiers predict and analyse the level of prediction uncertainty produced by these classifiers. We perform a sensitivity analysis to compare the performance of Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, RPart and SVM classifiers when predicting defects in NASA, open source and commercial datasets. The defect predictions that each classifier makes is captured in a confusion matrix and the prediction uncertainty of each classifier is compared. Despite similar predictive performance values for these four classifiers, each detects different sets of defects. Some classifiers are more consistent in predicting defects than others. Our results confirm that a unique subset of defects can be detected by specific classifiers. However, while some classifiers are consistent in the predictions they make, other classifiers vary in their predictions. Given our results, we conclude that classifier ensembles with decision-making strategies not based on majority voting are likely to perform best in defect prediction.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Radiomics strategies for risk assessment of tumour failure in head-and-neck cancer

Quantitative extraction of high-dimensional mineable data from medical images is a process known as radiomics. Radiomics is foreseen as an essential prognostic tool for cancer risk assessment and the quantification of intratumoural heterogeneity. In this work, 1615 radiomic features (quantifying tumour image intensity, shape, texture) extracted from pre-treatment FDG-PET and CT images of 300 patients from four different cohorts were analyzed for the risk assessment of locoregional recurrences (LR) and distant metastases (DM) in head-and-neck cancer. Prediction models combining radiomic and clinical variables were constructed via random forests and imbalance-adjustment strategies using two of the four cohorts. Independent validation of the prediction and prognostic performance of the models was carried out on the other two cohorts (LR: AUC = 0.69 and CI = 0.67; DM: AUC = 0.86 and CI = 0.88). Furthermore, the results obtained via Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated the potential of radiomics for assessing the risk of specific tumour outcomes using multiple stratification groups. This could have important clinical impact, notably by allowing for a better personalization of chemo-radiation treatments for head-and-neck cancer patients from different risk groups.Comment: (1) Paper: 33 pages, 4 figures, 1 table; (2) SUPP info: 41 pages, 7 figures, 8 table

EC3: Combining Clustering and Classification for Ensemble Learning

Classification and clustering algorithms have been proved to be successful individually in different contexts. Both of them have their own advantages and limitations. For instance, although classification algorithms are more powerful than clustering methods in predicting class labels of objects, they do not perform well when there is a lack of sufficient manually labeled reliable data. On the other hand, although clustering algorithms do not produce label information for objects, they provide supplementary constraints (e.g., if two objects are clustered together, it is more likely that the same label is assigned to both of them) that one can leverage for label prediction of a set of unknown objects. Therefore, systematic utilization of both these types of algorithms together can lead to better prediction performance. In this paper, We propose a novel algorithm, called EC3 that merges classification and clustering together in order to support both binary and multi-class classification. EC3 is based on a principled combination of multiple classification and multiple clustering methods using an optimization function. We theoretically show the convexity and optimality of the problem and solve it by block coordinate descent method. We additionally propose iEC3, a variant of EC3 that handles imbalanced training data. We perform an extensive experimental analysis by comparing EC3 and iEC3 with 14 baseline methods (7 well-known standalone classifiers, 5 ensemble classifiers, and 2 existing methods that merge classification and clustering) on 13 standard benchmark datasets. We show that our methods outperform other baselines for every single dataset, achieving at most 10% higher AUC. Moreover our methods are faster (1.21 times faster than the best baseline), more resilient to noise and class imbalance than the best baseline method.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 11 table

Pan-cancer classifications of tumor histological images using deep learning

Histopathological images are essential for the diagnosis of cancer type and selection of optimal treatment. However, the current clinical process of manual inspection of images is time consuming and prone to intra- and inter-observer variability. Here we show that key aspects of cancer image analysis can be performed by deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) across a wide spectrum of cancer types. In particular, we implement CNN architectures based on Google Inception v3 transfer learning to analyze 27815 H&E slides from 23 cohorts in The Cancer Genome Atlas in studies of tumor/normal status, cancer subtype, and mutation status. For 19 solid cancer types we are able to classify tumor/normal status of whole slide images with extremely high AUCs (0.995±0.008). We are also able to classify cancer subtypes within 10 tissue types with AUC values well above random expectations (micro-average 0.87±0.1). We then perform a cross-classification analysis of tumor/normal status across tumor types. We find that classifiers trained on one type are often effective in distinguishing tumor from normal in other cancer types, with the relationships among classifiers matching known cancer tissue relationships. For the more challenging problem of mutational status, we are able to classify TP53 mutations in three cancer types with AUCs from 0.65-0.80 using a fully-trained CNN, and with similar cross-classification accuracy across tissues. These studies demonstrate the power of CNNs for not only classifying histopathological images in diverse cancer types, but also for revealing shared biology between tumors. We have made software available at: https://github.com/javadnoorb/HistCNNFirst author draf

A critical assessment of imbalanced class distribution problem: the case of predicting freshmen student attrition

Predicting student attrition is an intriguing yet challenging problem for any academic institution. Class-imbalanced data is a common in the field of student retention, mainly because a lot of students register but fewer students drop out. Classification techniques for imbalanced dataset can yield deceivingly high prediction accuracy where the overall predictive accuracy is usually driven by the majority class at the expense of having very poor performance on the crucial minority class. In this study, we compared different data balancing techniques to improve the predictive accuracy in minority class while maintaining satisfactory overall classification performance. Specifically, we tested three balancing techniques—oversampling, under-sampling and synthetic minority over-sampling (SMOTE)—along with four popular classification methods—logistic regression, decision trees, neuron networks and support vector machines. We used a large and feature rich institutional student data (between the years 2005 and 2011) to assess the efficacy of both balancing techniques as well as prediction methods. The results indicated that the support vector machine combined with SMOTE data-balancing technique achieved the best classification performance with a 90.24% overall accuracy on the 10-fold holdout sample. All three data-balancing techniques improved the prediction accuracy for the minority class. Applying sensitivity analyses on developed models, we also identified the most important variables for accurate prediction of student attrition. Application of these models has the potential to accurately predict at-risk students and help reduce student dropout rates

Towards Data-Driven Autonomics in Data Centers

Continued reliance on human operators for managing data centers is a major impediment for them from ever reaching extreme dimensions. Large computer systems in general, and data centers in particular, will ultimately be managed using predictive computational and executable models obtained through data-science tools, and at that point, the intervention of humans will be limited to setting high-level goals and policies rather than performing low-level operations. Data-driven autonomics, where management and control are based on holistic predictive models that are built and updated using generated data, opens one possible path towards limiting the role of operators in data centers. In this paper, we present a data-science study of a public Google dataset collected in a 12K-node cluster with the goal of building and evaluating a predictive model for node failures. We use BigQuery, the big data SQL platform from the Google Cloud suite, to process massive amounts of data and generate a rich feature set characterizing machine state over time. We describe how an ensemble classifier can be built out of many Random Forest classifiers each trained on these features, to predict if machines will fail in a future 24-hour window. Our evaluation reveals that if we limit false positive rates to 5%, we can achieve true positive rates between 27% and 88% with precision varying between 50% and 72%. We discuss the practicality of including our predictive model as the central component of a data-driven autonomic manager and operating it on-line with live data streams (rather than off-line on data logs). All of the scripts used for BigQuery and classification analyses are publicly available from the authors' website.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure