Error-avoidance theory: sniper employment for military and civilian law enforcement

Sniper operations are high risk, high reward missions with unique traits and distinctive capabilities often resulting in great success or punishing failure. Within nearly all conceptions of sniper operations there is a perceived difference between civilian and military sniper engagements. This thesis presents an error-avoidance theory for guiding successful sniper operations across both domains. Inside sniper operations there are two critical errors that need to be avoided. These errors are defined as Type 1 and Type 2 errors. Type 1 errors are those that result in the death of an innocent individual. Type 2 errors occur when the targeted individual escapes the situation and the mission objective is not met, and thus the threat or potential threat remains active. Naturally, the goal is to avoid both errors. However, the rules of engagement established for any mission must, by necessity, privilege the avoidance of one error type over the other. The evaluation of three critical variablesoperational environment, political and social context, and the stakes or risk in the situationshould prioritize which error to avoid. This thesis thereby establishes a theoretical framework that can be universally employed to establish rules of engagement by all those who use the sniper tactic, for both civilian and military operations.http://archive.org/details/erroravoidanceor1094539001Major, United States ArmyApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Toward Realism in Human Performance Simulation

This chapter focuses on challenges to improving the realism of socially intelligent agents and attempts to reflect the state of the art in human behavior modeling with particular attention to the impact of values, emotion, and physiology/stress upon individual and group decision-making. The goal is to help those interested in constructing more realistic software agents for use in human performance simulations in both training and analysis settings. The first two sections offer an assessment of the state of the practice and of the need to make better use of human performance moderator functions (PMFs) published in the behavioral literature. The third section pursues this goal by providing an illustrative framework for integrating existing PMF theories and models, such as those on physiology and stress, cognitive and emotive processes, individual differences, and group and crowd behavior, among others. The fourth section presents asymmetric warfare and civil unrest case studies to examine some of the concerns affecting implementation of PMFs such as verification, validation, and interoperability with existing simulators, artificial life emulators, and artificial intelligence components. The final section of this chapter concludes with lessons learned and with some challenges if the field is to reach a greater level of maturity

Designing Studies of Predation Risk for Improved Inference in Carnivore-Ungulate Systems

Quantifying both the lethal and non-lethal (or “risk”) effects of predation has emerged as a major research focus in carnivore-ungulate systems. While numerous studies have examined predation risk and risk effects in recent decades, a lack of standardization in approaches has impeded progress in the field. We provide an overview of five major study design considerations involved in assessing predation risk and responses of prey in carnivoreungulate systems, highlighting how different design choices can impact the strength and scope of inference. First, we stress the importance of distinguishing measures of predation risk (probability of being killed) from measures of risk effects (costs of antipredator behaviors in response to risk). Second, we recommend explicit consideration of spatial and temporal scales using a standardized framework to facilitate cross-study comparisons. Third, ungulates use visual, auditory, and olfactory sensory pathways to evaluate predation risk. Experiments that manipulate signals of risk (e.g., auditory playbacks or application of predator scent) can be powerful approaches, but the dosages and types of cues need to be carefully considered. Fourth, ungulates usually face threats from multiple predators simultaneously, and we highlight the potential for remote cameras and structural equation modeling to help address this challenge. Fifth, emerging technologies may substantially improve our ability to assess risk. We discuss several promising technologies, such as animal-borne video, unmanned aerial vehicles, and physiological sensors. We conclude with general recommendations for study design, which may improve the utility of predation risk research for the conservation and management of carnivore-ungulate systems

Fluid Mechanics of Plankton

The cooperation between plankton biologists and fluid dynamists has enhanced our knowledge of life within the plankton communities in ponds, lakes, and seas. This book assembled contributions on plankton–flow interactions, with an emphasis on syntheses and/or predictions. However, a wide range of novel insights, reasonable scenarios, and founded critiques are also considered in this book

Production, mortality, and infectivity of planktonic larval sea lice, Lepeophtheirus salmonis (Krøyer, 1837): current knowledge and implications for epidemiological modelling

Current sea louse models attempt to estimate louse burdens on wild and cultured salmon by predicting the production and distribution of lice larvae and estimating the risk of transmission. While physical characteristics of water bodies and weather can be accurately modelled, many aspects of sea lice biology require further parameterization. The aims of this review are (i) to describe current knowledge regarding the production, mortality, and infectivity of planktonic sea lice larvae and (ii) to identify gaps in knowledge and suggest research approaches to filling them. Several major gaps are identified, and those likely to have the greatest impact on infection levels are (i) egg production, viability and hatching success, (ii) predation in plankton and (iii) copepodid infectivity profiles. A key problem identified in current parameter estimates is that they originate from a number of sources and have been determined using a variety of experimental approaches. This is a barrier to the provision of “best” or consensus estimates for use in modelling. Additional and more consistent data collection and experimentation will help to fill these gaps. Furthermore, coordinated international efforts are required to generate a more complete picture of sea louse infections across all regions experiencing problems with sea lice

Human Behavior Models for Agents in Simulators and Games: Part II Gamebot Engineering with PMFserv

Many producers and consumers of legacy training simulator and game environments are beginning to envision a new era where psycho-socio-physiologic models could be interoperated to enhance their environments\u27 simulation of human agents. This paper explores whether we could embed our behavior modeling framework (described in the companion paper, Part 1) behind a legacy first person shooter 3D game environment to recreate portions of the Black Hawk Down scenario. Section 1 amplifies the interoperability needs and challenges confronting the field, presents the questions that are examined, and describes the test scenario. Sections 2 and 3 review the software and knowledge engineering methodology, respectively, needed to create the system and populate it with bots. Results (Section 4) and discussion (Section 5) reveal that we were able to generate plausible and adaptive recreations of Somalian crowds, militia, women acting as shields, suicide bombers, and more. Also, there are specific lessons learned about ways to advance the field so that such interoperabilities will become more affordable and widespread

Ponds as experimental arenas for studying animal movement: current research and future prospects

Animal movement is a multifaceted process that occurs for multiple reasons with powerful consequences for food web and ecosystem dynamics. New paradigms and technical innovations have recently pervaded the field, providing increasingly powerful means to deliver fine-scale movement data, attracting renewed interest. Specifically in the aquatic environment, tracking with acoustic telemetry now provides integral spatiotemporal information to follow individual movements in the wild. Yet, this technology also holds great promise for experimental studies, enhancing our ability to truly establish cause-and-effect relationships. Here, we argue that ponds with well-defined borders (i.e. "islands in a sea of land") are particularly well suited for this purpose. To support our argument, we also discuss recent experiences from studies conducted in an innovative experimental infrastructure, composed of replicated ponds equipped with modern aquatic telemetry systems that allow for unparalleled insights into the movement patterns of individual animals