Abductive Design of BDI Agent-based Digital Twins of Organizations

For a Digital Twin - a precise, virtual representation of a physical counterpart - of a human-like system to be faithful and complete, it must appeal to a notion of anthropomorphism (i.e., attributing human behaviour to non-human entities) to imitate (1) the externally visible behaviour and (2) the internal workings of that system. Although the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) paradigm was not developed for this purpose, it has been used successfully in human modeling applications. In this sense, we introduce in this thesis the notion of abductive design of BDI agent-based Digital Twins of organizations, which builds on two powerful reasoning disciplines: reverse engineering (to recreate the visible behaviour of the target system) and goal-driven eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) (for viewing the behaviour of the target system through the lens of BDI agents). Precisely speaking, the overall problem we are trying to address in this thesis is to “Find a BDI agent program that best explains (in the sense of formal abduction) the behaviour of a target system based on its past experiences . To do so, we propose three goal-driven XAI techniques: (1) abductive design of BDI agents, (2) leveraging imperfect explanations and (3) mining belief-based explanations. The resulting approach suggests that using goal-driven XAI to generate Digital Twins of organizations in the form of BDI agents can be effective, even in a setting with limited information about the target system’s behaviour

Strategy and small firm performance

The objective of this study is to contribute to the debate on the relationship between strategy and firm performance, especially for SMEs. The research questions are: Can different strategic groups of SMEs be identified and to what extent does the selected strategy influence the firm performance of SMEs?For the empirical analysis, data from the SME panel of EIM is used. The analysis shows that four distinct groups of companies can be identified: service differentiators, stuck-in-the-middle companies, innovation and marketing differentiators and process differentiators. Companies in the first two groups are relatively small and are less active with strategic issues like planning etc. Companies in the last two groups are relatively large and deal with strategy in a more professional way (written-down strategy, regular updates et cetera). If controlled for size, there are no significant differences in terms of turnover and profit.

Efficient Human Pose Estimation with Image-dependent Interactions

Human pose estimation from 2D images is one of the most challenging and computationally-demanding problems in computer vision. Standard models such as Pictorial Structures consider interactions between kinematically connected joints or limbs, leading to inference cost that is quadratic in the number of pixels. As a result, researchers and practitioners have restricted themselves to simple models which only measure the quality of limb-pair possibilities by their 2D geometric plausibility. In this talk, we propose novel methods which allow for efficient inference in richer models with data-dependent interactions. First, we introduce structured prediction cascades, a structured analog of binary cascaded classifiers, which learn to focus computational effort where it is needed, filtering out many states cheaply while ensuring the correct output is unfiltered. Second, we propose a way to decompose models of human pose with cyclic dependencies into a collection of tree models, and provide novel methods to impose model agreement. Finally, we develop a local linear approach that learns bases centered around modes in the training data, giving us image-dependent local models which are fast and accurate. These techniques allow for sparse and efficient inference on the order of minutes or seconds per image. As a result, we can afford to model pairwise interaction potentials much more richly with data-dependent features such as contour continuity, segmentation alignment, color consistency, optical flow and multiple modes. We show empirically that these richer models are worthwhile, obtaining significantly more accurate pose estimation on popular datasets

A survey on competitive intelligence practices for strategic decisions

Doutoramento em GestãoThis thesis aims to measure the frequency use of competitive intelligence as a support tool to the strategic decision-making in Portuguese organizations. Likewise, the thesis aims to measure the satisfaction level of the decision-maker when making decisions based on competitive intelligence. Based on an extensive literature review, some hypotheses appear to support a survey addressing competitive intelligence issues. Considering a convenient sample, the conclusions drawn about the use and satisfaction level based on competitive intelligence are as expected, as what lies beneath strategic decisions is also answered.Esta tese tem o objectivo de medir a frequência do uso de competitive intelligence como ferramenta de suporte à tomada de decisão estratégica nas empresas Portuguesas. De igual modo, tem o objectivo de medir o grau de satisfação dos decisores quando tomam decisões baseadas em competitive intelligence. Com base numa extensa revisão de literatura, surgem algumas hipóteses que suportam um inquérito sobre competitive intelligence. Considerando uma amostra de conveniência, as conclusões tiradas são as esperadas, e obtém-se a resposta para o que está por detrás da decisão estratégica.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Paradigm Shift in Game Theory : Sociological Re-Conceptualization of Human Agency, Social Structure, and Agents’ Cognitive-Normative Frameworks and Action Determination Modalities

This article aims to present some of the initial work of developing a social science grounded game theory—as a clear alternative to classical game theory. Two distinct independent initiatives in Sociology are presented: One, a systems approach, social systems game theory (SGT), and the other, Erving Goffman’s interactionist approach (IGT). These approaches are presented and contrasted with classical theory. They focus on the social rules, norms, roles, role relationships, and institutional arrangements, which structure and regulate human behavior. While strategic judgment and instrumental rationality play an important part in the sociological approaches, they are not a universal or dominant modality of social action determination. Rule following is considered, generally speaking, more characteristic and more general. Sociological approaches, such as those outlined in this article provide a language and conceptual tools to more adequately and effectively than the classical theory describe, model, and analyze the diversity and complexity of human interaction conditions and processes: (1) complex cognitive rule based models of the interaction situation with which actors understand and analyze their situations; (2) value complex(es) with which actors operate, often with multiple values and norms applying in interaction situations; (3) action repertoires (rule complexes) with simple and complex action alternatives—plans, programs, established (sometimes highly elaborated) algorithms, and rituals; (4) a rule complex of action determination modalities for actors to generate and/or select actions in game situations; three action modalities are considered here; each modality consists of one or more procedures or algorithms for action determination: (I) following or implementing a rule or rule complex, norm, role, ritual, or social relation; (II) selecting or choosing among given or institutionalized alternatives according to a rule or principle; and (III) constructing or adopting one or more alternatives according to a value, guideline, or set of criteria. Such determinations are often carried out collectively. The paper identifies and illustrates in a concluding table several of the key differences between classical theory and the sociological approaches on a number of dimensions relating to human agency; social structure, norms, institutions, and cultural forms; patterns of game interaction and outcomes, the conditions of cooperation and conflict, game restructuring and transformation, and empirical relevance. Sociologically based game theory, such as the contributions outlined in this article suggest a language and conceptual tools to more adequately and effectively than the classical theory describe, model, and analyze the diversity, complexity, and dynamics of human interaction conditions and processes and, therefore, promises greater empirical relevance and scientific power. An Appendix provides an elaboration of SGT, concluding that one of SGT’s major contributions is the rule based conceptualization of games as socially embedded with agents in social roles and role relationships and subject to cognitive-normative and agential regulation. SGT rules and rule complexes are based on contemporary developments relating to granular computing and Artificial Intelligence in general.Peer reviewe

Understanding dynamics of strategic decision-making in venture creation: a process study of effectuation and causation

The process of new venture creation is characterized by the need to decide and take action in the face of uncertainty. Especially in the context of technology-based ventures uncertainty is substantial, posing difficulties for strategic decision-making based on prediction and planning. As alternative, more flexible and adaptive decision-making logics are being advanced. This study draws upon effectuation and causation as examples of planning-based and flexible decision-making logics, and investigates dynamics in the use of both logics. The study applies a longitudinal process research approach to investigate strategic decision-making in new venture creation over time. Combining qualitative and quantitative methods, we analyze 385 decision events across nine technology-based ventures. Our observations suggest a hybrid perspective on strategic decision-making, demonstrating how effectuation and causation logics are combined, and how entrepreneurs’ emphasis on these logics shifts and re-shifts over time. From our data, we induce a dynamic model which extends the literature on strategic decision-making in venture creation, illustrating how external and venture conditions - including not only uncertainty but also resource position and stakeholder pressure - lead to changes in venture scope, and thereby to shifts in the use of decision-making logics