Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

This paper develops and tests a dynamic optimization model of fishermen’s investment behavior in a limited-entry fishery. Because exit from limited-entry fisheries may be irreversible, the fisherman has an incentive to maintain the right to fish (whether by actually fishing or by purchasing an annual license) even when the fishery is not profitable, in the hope that conditions may improve. This incentive provides at least a partial explanation for excess capacity in fishing fleets, one of the most pressing fisheries management issues in limited-entry (and other) fisheries around the world. To assess the ability of simple financial models to explain observed investment behavior, we develop a two-factor (price and catch) real options model of the decision problem faced by an active fisherman who has the option to exit a fishery irrevocably. The immediate reason for adopting a two-factor model is the hope of achieving greater predictive power, since obviously both price and catch are important to fishermen’s decisions. Another advantage to this approach is that it provides a mechanism by which investment behavior can be linked in a real options framework to exogenous factors that affect price and catch separately. For example, international market forces are likely to affect price while having a negligible effect on a local fish stock, while local fish stock dynamics may affect catch directly but have little influence on prices (assuming the demand for a particular fish is relatively elastic). In a comparison of model predictions about fishermen’s exit decisions to 5059 observed decisions in the California salmon fishery in the 1990s, 65% of the model’s predictions are correct, suggesting this approach may be useful in the analysis of fishing fleet dynamics.Real option investment, Numerical methods, Fisheries

Quantifying polarization across political groups on key policy issues using sentiment analysis

There is growing concern that over the past decade, industrialized democratic nations are becoming increasingly politically polarized. Indeed, elections in the US, UK, France, and Germany have all seen tightly won races, with notable examples including the 2016 Trump vs. Clinton presidential election and the UK's Brexit referendum. However, while there has been much qualitative discussion of polarization on key issues, there are few examples of formal quantitative assessments examining this topic. Therefore, in this paper, we undertake a statistical evaluation of political polarization for representatives elected to the US congress on key policy issues between 2021-2022. The method is based on applying sentiment analysis to Twitter data and developing quantitative analysis for six political groupings defined based on voting records. Two sets of policy groups are explored, including geopolitical policies (e.g., Ukraine-Russia, China, Taiwan, etc.) and domestic policies (e.g., abortion, climate change, LGBTQ, immigration, etc.). We find that out of the twelve policies explored here, gun control was the most politically polarizing, with significant polarization results found for all groups (four of which were P < 0.001). The next most polarizing issues include immigration and border control, fossil fuels, and Ukraine-Russia. Interestingly, the least polarized policy topics were Taiwan, LGBTQ, and the Chinese Communist Party, potentially demonstrating the highest degree of bipartisanship on these issues. The results can be used to guide future policy making, by helping to identify areas of common ground across political groups.Comment: 31 pages, 7 figure

PICES Press, Vol. 21, No. 1, Winter 2013

•2012 PICES Science: A Note from the Science Board Chairman (pp. 1-6) ◾2012 PICES Awards (pp. 7-9) ◾GLOBEC/PICES/ICES ECOFOR Workshop (pp. 10-15) ◾ICES/PICES Symposium on “Forage Fish Interactions” (pp. 16-18) ◾The Yeosu Declaration, the Yeosu Declaration Forum and the Yeosu Project (pp. 19-23) ◾2013 PICES Calendar (p. 23) ◾Why Do We Need Human Dimensions for the FUTURE Program? (pp. 24-25) ◾New PICES MAFF-Sponsored Project on “Marine Ecosystem Health and Human Well-Being” (pp. 26-28) ◾The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Trends (pp. 29-31) ◾Continuing Cool in the Northeast Pacific Ocean (pp. 32, 35) ◾The State of the Western North Pacific in the First Half of 2012 (pp. 33-35) ◾New Leadership in PICES (pp. 36-39

The Methodology of Normative Policy Analysis

Policy analyses frequently clash. Their disagreements stem from many sources, including models, empirical estimates, and values such as who should have standing and how different criteria should be weighted. We provide a simple taxonomy of disagreement, identifying distinct categories within both the positive and values domains of normative policy analysis. Using disagreements in climate policy to illustrate, we demonstrate how illuminating the structure of disagreement helps to clarify the way forward. We conclude by suggesting a structure for policy analysis that can facilitate assessment, comparison, and debate by laying bare the most likely sources of disagreement.

GEANT4 : a simulation toolkit

Abstract Geant4 is a toolkit for simulating the passage of particles through matter. It includes a complete range of functionality including tracking, geometry, physics models and hits. The physics processes offered cover a comprehensive range, including electromagnetic, hadronic and optical processes, a large set of long-lived particles, materials and elements, over a wide energy range starting, in some cases, from 250 eV and extending in others to the TeV energy range. It has been designed and constructed to expose the physics models utilised, to handle complex geometries, and to enable its easy adaptation for optimal use in different sets of applications. The toolkit is the result of a worldwide collaboration of physicists and software engineers. It has been created exploiting software engineering and object-oriented technology and implemented in the C++ programming language. It has been used in applications in particle physics, nuclear physics, accelerator design, space engineering and medical physics. PACS: 07.05.Tp; 13; 2

Annual Report: 2008

I submit herewith the annual report from the Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station, School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, for the period ending December 31, 2008. This is done in accordance with an act of Congress, approved March 2, 1887, entitled, “An act to establish agricultural experiment stations, in connection with the agricultural college established in the several states under the provisions of an act approved July 2, 1862, and under the acts supplementary thereto,” and also of the act of the Alaska Territorial Legislature, approved March 12, 1935, accepting the provisions of the act of Congress. The research reports are organized according to our strategic plan, which focuses on high-latitude soils, high-latitude agriculture, natural resources use and allocation, ecosystems management, and geographic information. These areas cross department and unit lines, linking them and unifying the research. We have also included in our financial statement information on the special grants we receive. These special grants allow us to provide research and outreach that is targeted toward economic development in Alaska. Research conducted by our graduate and undergraduate students plays an important role in these grants and the impact they make on Alaska.Financial statement -- Grants -- Students -- Research reports: Partners, Facilities, and Programs; Geographic Information; High-Latitude Agriculture; High-Latitude Soils, Management of Ecosystems; Natural Resources Use and Allocation; Index to Reports -- Publications -- Facult

Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with $r^2$ up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.Comment: 27 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables. Version 2: Cite McIver & Brownstein and adjust novelty claims accordingly; revise title; various revisions for clarit

Economy-Wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise

The economy-wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. Overall, general equilibrium effects increase the costs of sea level rise, but not necessarily in every sector or region. In the absence of coastal protection, economies that rely most on agriculture are hit hardest. Although energy is substituted for land, overall energy consumption falls with the shrinking economy, hurting energy exporters. With full coastal protection, GDP increases, particularly in regions that do a lot of dike building, but utility falls, least in regions that build a lot of dikes and export energy. Energy prices rise and energy consumption falls. The costs of full protection exceed the costs of losing land.Impacts of climate change, Sea level rise, Computable general equilibrium

Data science methods for the analysis of controversial social dedia discussions

Social media communities like Reddit and Twitter allow users to express their views on topics of their interest, and to engage with other users who may share or oppose these views. This can lead to productive discussions towards a consensus, or to contended debates, where disagreements frequently arise. Prior work on such settings has primarily focused on identifying notable instances of antisocial behavior such as hate-speech and “trolling”, which represent possible threats to the health of a community. These, however, are exceptionally severe phenomena, and do not encompass controversies stemming from user debates, differences of opinions, and off-topic content, all of which can naturally come up in a discussion without going so far as to compromise its development. This dissertation proposes a framework for the systematic analysis of social media discussions that take place in the presence of controversial themes, disagreements, and mixed opinions from participating users. For this, we develop a feature-based model to describe key elements of a discussion, such as its salient topics, the level of activity from users, the sentiments it expresses, and the user feedback it receives. Initially, we build our feature model to characterize adversarial discussions surrounding political campaigns on Twitter, with a focus on the factual and sentimental nature of their topics and the role played by different users involved. We then extend our approach to Reddit discussions, leveraging community feedback signals to define a new notion of controversy and to highlight conversational archetypes that arise from frequent and interesting interaction patterns. We use our feature model to build logistic regression classifiers that can predict future instances of controversy in Reddit communities centered on politics, world news, sports, and personal relationships. Finally, our model also provides the basis for a comparison of different communities in the health domain, where topics and activity vary considerably despite their shared overall focus. In each of these cases, our framework provides insight into how user behavior can shape a community’s individual definition of controversy and its overall identity.Social-Media Communities wie Reddit und Twitter ermöglichen es Nutzern, ihre Ansichten zu eigenen Themen zu äußern und mit anderen Nutzern in Kontakt zu treten, die diese Ansichten teilen oder ablehnen. Dies kann zu produktiven Diskussionen mit einer Konsensbildung führen oder zu strittigen Auseinandersetzungen über auftretende Meinungsverschiedenheiten. Frühere Arbeiten zu diesem Komplex konzentrierten sich in erster Linie darauf, besondere Fälle von asozialem Verhalten wie Hassrede und "Trolling" zu identifizieren, da diese eine Gefahr für die Gesprächskultur und den Wert einer Community darstellen. Die sind jedoch außergewöhnlich schwerwiegende Phänomene, die keinesfalls bei jeder Kontroverse auftreten die sich aus einfachen Diskussionen, Meinungsverschiedenheiten und themenfremden Inhalten ergeben. All diese Reibungspunkte können auch ganz natürlich in einer Diskussion auftauchen, ohne dass diese gleich den ganzen Gesprächsverlauf gefährden. Diese Dissertation stellt ein Framework für die systematische Analyse von Social-Media Diskussionen vor, die vornehmlich von kontroversen Themen, strittigen Standpunkten und Meinungsverschiedenheiten der teilnehmenden Nutzer geprägt sind. Dazu entwickeln wir ein Feature-Modell, um Schlüsselelemente einer Diskussion zu beschreiben. Dazu zählen der Aktivitätsgrad der Benutzer, die Wichtigkeit der einzelnen Aspekte, die Stimmung, die sie ausdrückt, und das Benutzerfeedback. Zunächst bauen wir unser Feature-Modell so auf, um bei Diskussionen gegensätzlicher politischer Kampagnen auf Twitter die oben genannten Schlüsselelemente zu bestimmen. Der Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auf den sachlichen und emotionalen Aspekten der Themen im Bezug auf die Rollen verschiedener Nutzer. Anschließend erweitern wir unseren Ansatz auf Reddit-Diskussionen und nutzen das Community-Feedback, um einen neuen Begriff der Kontroverse zu definieren und Konversationsarchetypen hervorzuheben, die sich aus Interaktionsmustern ergeben. Wir nutzen unser Feature-Modell, um ein Logistischer Regression Verfahren zu entwickeln, das zukünftige Kontroversen in Reddit-Communities in den Themenbereichen Politik, Weltnachrichten, Sport und persönliche Beziehungen vorhersagen kann. Schlussendlich bietet unser Modell auch die Grundlage für eine Vergleichbarkeit verschiedener Communities im Gesundheitsbereich, auch wenn dort die Themen und die Nutzeraktivität, trotz des gemeinsamen Gesamtfokus, erheblich variieren. In jedem der genannten Themenbereiche gibt unser Framework Erkenntnisgewinne, wie das Verhalten der Nutzer die spezifisch Definition von Kontroversen der Community prägt