Using graphical models and multi-attribute utility theory for probabilistic uncertainty handling in large systems, with application to nuclear emergency management

Although many decision-making problems involve uncertainty, uncertainty handling within large decision support systems (DSSs) is challenging. One domain where uncertainty handling is critical is emergency response management, in particular nuclear emergency response, where decision making takes place in an uncertain, dynamically changing environment. Assimilation and analysis of data can help to reduce these uncertainties, but it is critical to do this in an efficient and defensible way. After briefly introducing the structure of a typical DSS for nuclear emergencies, the paper sets up a theoretical structure that enables a formal Bayesian decision analysis to be performed for environments like this within a DSS architecture. In such probabilistic DSSs many input conditional probability distributions are provided by different sets of experts overseeing different aspects of the emergency. These probabilities are then used by the decision maker (DM) to find her optimal decision. We demonstrate in this paper that unless due care is taken in such a composite framework, coherence and rationality may be compromised in a sense made explicit below. The technology we describe here builds a framework around which Bayesian data updating can be performed in a modular way, ensuring both coherence and efficiency, and provides sufficient unambiguous information to enable the DM to discover her expected utility maximizing policy

Does Global Climate Policy Promote Low-Carbon Cities? Lessons Learnt From The CDM

An increasing proportion of greenhouse gas emissions is produced in urban areas in industrializing and developing countries. Recent research shows that per capita emissions in cities like Bangkok, Cape Town or Shanghai have already reached the level of cities like London, New York or Toronto. Large parts of the building stock and service infrastructure in cities in rapidly developing countries is built in the coming decade or two. Decisions taken in this sector today may therefore lock in a high emissions path. Based upon a survey of projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, we find that only about 1% of CDM projects have been submitted by municipalities, mostly in the waste management sector. This low participation is probably due to a lack of technical know how to develop CDM projects and an absence of motivation due to the long project cycle and the limited “visibility” of the projects for the electorate. Projects in the buildings and transport sector are rare, mainly due to heavy methodological challenges. A case study of the city network ICLEI and its experience with cities’ participation in the CDM adds insights from the practitioner side. We conclude that CDM reforms may make it easier for municipalities to engage in the CDM, and that new forms of cooperation between municipalities and project developers, potentially facilitated by ICLEI, are required to help to realize the urban CDM potential.CDM, cities, energy, climate policy, mitigation, transport, waste, local authorities

New resonance approach to competitiveness interventions in lagging regions: the case of Ukraine before the armed conflict

Regional competitiveness is considered to be an alternative basis for the determination of regional interventions. However, the composite competitiveness indicator is quite sensitive to the weights of sub-indicators, no matter what methodology is being used. To avoid this uncertainty in the determination of regional interventions, we proposed a new non-compensatory resonance approach that is focused on the hierarchical coincidence between weaknesses of NUTS 1 and NUTS 2 regions measuring the extensive and intensive components of competitiveness. Such a coincidence, being perceived as a resonance effect, is supposed to increase the effectiveness of interventions triggering synergetic effects and stirring up local regional potentials. The components of competitiveness are obtained through synthesising DEA methodology and Hellwig's index, correspondingly focusing on the measurement of technical efficiency and resource level. In analysing Ukrainian regions, no correlation between resonance interventions and the composite competitiveness indicator or GDP per capita was found, pointing toward a completely different direction in resonance approach. In western Ukraine, the congestion of six NUTS 2 regions was defined as a homogeneous area of analogous resonance interventions focused on improving business efficiency.Web of Science171562

Why do pluralistic media systems emerge? Comparing media change in the Czech Republic and in Russia after the collapse of Communism

A quarter century after the collapse of Communism in the former Eastern bloc, a wide range of scholarly projects have been undertaken to compare and theorize processes of media change in the region. One question that scholars have sought to address is: what were the factors that crucially impacted how these media landscapes evolved? This essay aims to contribute to this debate by juxtaposing media change in two selected cases: the Czech Republic (as a best-case scenario in terms of convergence with the Western model) and Russia (as a scenario where convergence has been limited). Based on secondary analysis of a wide range of sources, the essay systematically exposes 11 crucial differences between the two countries and illustrates how these have impacted the processes of media change. The conclusion sets out how these findings could serve as a starting point and source of inspiration for future comparative research

The Impact of Agricultural Technology in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Synthesis of Symposium Findings

The Symposium on the Impact of Technology on Agricultural Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa funded by AID/AFR/ARTS and AID/RD/EID under the Michigan State University Food Security Cooperative Agreements, was held in Washington, D.C., Oct. 14-16, 1992. A primary purpose of the symposium was to present evidence which would either confirm or contradict the perception that the accomplishments of TDT were insufficient to justify continued funding. A secondary objective was to consider the adequacy of available analytical tools for impact assessment. The rate of return (ROR) is the most commonly used valuative measure of investments in technology development and transfer. Examined as a group, the estimated RORs support the proposition that African agricultural research has had people-level impacts, and that these impacts are large enough to justify the level of investment that led to the impacts. An important part of the impact assessment story is the analysis of factors that had a positive or negative effect on the impact of TDT. Five major factors emerged from the studies presented and comments by symposium participants: agroclimatic conditions, civil unrest, research system performance, policy, and markets. Progress has been made in moving forward with the process of TDT, in spite of adverse conditions. This progress includes enhancing the capabilities of national, regional and international institutions to generate new techniques, pushing forward the technology frontier, transferring technology, and increasing productivity both in farm production and post-harvest activities. Activities such as structural adjustment, improvements in agricultural and macroeconomic policy, greater reliance on democracy and capitalism, investments in infrastructure, and a greater willingness to work with the private sector have increased the potential for TDT to have significant impact. Given the importance of raising productivity in agriculture as a step towards agricultural transformation, continued investment in agricultural TDT is merited. The evidence of impact achieved from previous investments shows that those investments have paid off. Coupled with the evidence of beneficial changes in the macroeconomic policy environment in many countries, this provides the basis for expecting that future investments will pay off. What is perhaps unique about the symposium is the movement towards a commodity sector perspective as the next logical step toward including more demand-side considerations in the TDT agenda.International Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Downloads July 2008 - June 2009: 18,

Enhanced financial mechanisms for post 2012 mitigation

Despite the many calls to reform the CDM, its conceptual underpinnings are strong and it will most likely survive in the post-2012 climate regime. Some modifications may be considered in the short term to strengthen the effectiveness and transparency of the mechanism without modifying the Marrakesh Accords. In the medium term substantially increased mitigation efforts in developing countries may require a combination of three possible financial mechanisms: the current activity-based CDM albeit improved, a second market mechanism that would seek to improve the long term emission trends of developing countries by promoting broad based emission reduction programs primarily in the private sector, and a third financial mechanism outside of the market which would be an incentive for the adoption of policy changes leading to a low carbon path, but where emission reductions would not be used as international offsets.Environmental Economics&Policies,Carbon Policy and Trading,Montreal Protocol,Energy and Environment,Environment and Energy Efficiency

New scalar politics : implications for education policy

This paper argues that globalisation has implications for research and theory in the social sciences, demanding that the social no longer be seen as homologous with nation, but also linked to postnational or global fields. This situation has theoretical and methodological implications for comparative education specifically focused on education policy, which traditionally has taken the nation-state as the unit of analysis, and also worked with \u27methodological nationalism\u27. The paper argues that globalisation has witnessed a rescaling of educational politics and policymaking and relocated some political authority to an emergent global education policy field, with implications for the functioning of national political authority and national education policy fields. This rescaling and this reworking of political authority are illustrated through two cases: the first is concerned with the impact of a globalised policy discourse of the ‘knowledge economy’ proselytised by the OECD and its impact in Australian policy developments; the second is concerned explicitly with the constitution of a global education policy field as a commensurate space of equivalence, as evidenced in the OECD’s PISA and educational indicators work and their increasing global coverage. The paper indicatively utilises Bourdieu’s ‘thinking tools’ to understand the emergent global education policy field and suggest these are very useful for doing comparative education policy analysis

How to use the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health as a reference system for comparative evaluation and standardized reporting of rehabilitation interventions

Rehabilitation aims to optimize functioning of persons experiencing functioning limitations. As such the comparative evaluation of rehabilitation interventions relies on the analysis of the differences between the change in patient functioning after a specific rehabilitation intervention versus the change following another intervention. A robust health information reference system that can facilitate the comparative evaluation of changes in functioning in rehabilitation studies and the standardized reporting of rehabilitation interventions is the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). The objective of this paper is to present recommendations that Cochrane Rehabilitation could adopt for using the ICF in rehabilitation studies by: 1) defining the functioning categories to be included in a rehabilitation study; 2) specifying selected functioning categories and selecting suitable data collection instruments; 3) examining aspects of functioning that have been documented in a study; 4) reporting functioning data collected with various data collection instruments; and 5) communicating results in an accessible, meaningful and easily understandable way. The authors provide examples of concrete studies that underscore these recommendations, whereby also em-phasizing the need for future research on the implementation of specific recommendations, e.g. in meta-analysis in systematic literature reviews. Furthermore, the paper outlines how the ICF can complement or be integrated in established Cochrane and rehabilitation research structures and methods, e.g. use of standard mean difference to compare cross-study data collected using different measures, in developing core outcome sets for rehabilitation, and the use of the PICO model. © 2019 EDIZIONI MINERVA MEDICA

Robust Global Stock Market Interdependencies

In this paper, we examine the scope for international stock portfolio diversification, from the viewpoint of a United States representative investor, in regard to both the Asian and theEuropean stock markets. Our findings indicate that despite correlation style evidence to thecontrary, the European stock markets provide a superior long-term diversification opportunity relative to that provided by the Asian stock markets. Hence, a short-term measurement of interdependence appears to be uninformative with respect to the diversification opportunities of investors with longer term investment horizons. In terms of methodology, we adopt common stochastic trend tests, including a common stochastic trend test which accounts for generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects in conjunction with the recursive estimation of these tests to estimate the development of longterm stock market interdependence linkages. Recursively estimated robust correlations between the international stock markets are utilised to reveal the nature of short-term stock market interdependence linkages.Stock Market Linkages, Portfolio Diversification, Correlation, Cointegration