Towards Advancing the Earthquake Forecasting by Machine Learning of Satellite Data

Earthquakes have become one of the leading causes of death from natural hazards in the last fifty years. Continuous efforts have been made to understand the physical characteristics of earthquakes and the interaction between the physical hazards and the environments so that appropriate warnings may be generated before earthquakes strike. However, earthquake forecasting is not trivial at all. Reliable forecastings should include the analysis and the signals indicating the coming of a significant quake. Unfortunately, these signals are rarely evident before earthquakes occur, and therefore it is challenging to detect such precursors in seismic analysis. Among the available technologies for earthquake research, remote sensing has been commonly used due to its unique features such as fast imaging and wide image-acquisition range. Nevertheless, early studies on pre-earthquake and remote-sensing anomalies are mostly oriented towards anomaly identification and analysis of a single physical parameter. Many analyses are based on singular events, which provide a lack of understanding of this complex natural phenomenon because usually, the earthquake signals are hidden in the environmental noise. The universality of such analysis still is not being demonstrated on a worldwide scale. In this paper, we investigate physical and dynamic changes of seismic data and thereby develop a novel machine learning method, namely Inverse Boosting Pruning Trees (IBPT), to issue short-term forecast based on the satellite data of 1371 earthquakes of magnitude six or above due to their impact on the environment. We have analyzed and compared our proposed framework against several states of the art machine learning methods using ten different infrared and hyperspectral measurements collected between 2006 and 2013. Our proposed method outperforms all the six selected baselines and shows a strong capability in improving the likelihood of earthquake forecasting across different earthquake databases

Application of Model-Based Time Series Prediction of Infrared Long-Wave Radiation Data for Exploring the Precursory Patterns Associated with the 2021 Madoi Earthquake

Taking the Madoi MS 7.4 earthquake of 21 May 2021 as an example, this paper proposes using time series prediction models to predict the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) anomalies and study short-term pre-earthquake signals. Five time series prediction models, including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and long short-term memory (LSTM), were trained with the OLR time series data of the aseismic moments in the 5° × 5° spatial range around the epicenter. The model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to retrospectively predict the OLR values during the aseismic period and before the earthquake in the area. It was found, by comparing the predicted time series values with the actual time series value, that the similarity indexes of the two time series before the earthquake were lower than the index of the aseismic period, indicating that the predicted time series before the earthquake significantly differed from the actual time series. Meanwhile, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the anomalies in the 90 days before the earthquake were analyzed with a 95% confidence interval as the criterion of the anomalies, and the following was found: out of 25 grids, 18 grids showed anomalies—the anomalies of the different grids appeared on similar dates, and the anomalies of high values appeared centrally at the time of the earthquake, which supports the hypothesis that pre-earthquake signals may be associated with the earthquake

Coarse-graining research of the thermal infrared anomalies before earthquakes in the Sichuan area on Google Earth engine

Seismo-induced Thermal infrared (TIR) anomalies has been proposed as a significant precursor of earthquakes. Several methods have been proposed to detect Thermal infrared anomalies that may be associated with earthquakes. However, there is no comparison of the influence for Thermal infrared extraction methods with a long time statistical analysis. To quantify the effects of various techniques used in Thermal infrared anomaly extraction, in this paper, we offer a complete workflow of their comparative impacts. This study was divided into three parts: anomaly detection, statistical analysis, and tectonic factor research. For anomaly detection, daily continuous nighttime surface temperature (ConLST) data was obtained from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, and each different anomaly detection method was used to detect Thermal infrared outliers in the Sichuan region (27°-37°N, 97°-107°E). During statistical analysis, The heated core model was applied to explore Thermal infrared anomalies which is to filter anomalies unrelated to earthquakes by setting time-space-intensity conditions. The 3D error diagram offers scores to assume the best parameter set using training-test-validation steps. In the final part, we considered information on stresses, active faults, and seismic zones to determine the optimal parameters for extracting the Thermal infrared anomalies. The Kalman filter method detected the highest seismic anomaly frequency without considerating the heating core condition. The Autoencoder and Isolation Forest methods obtain the optimal alert type and parameter set to determine if the anomaly is likely earthquake-related. The RST method performs optimally in the final part of the workflow when it considers physical factors such as active faults, seismic zones, and stresses. However, The six methods we have chosen are not sufficient to contain the entire Thermal infrared anomaly extraction. The consideration of tectonic factors in the research remains poorly developed, as statistical methods were not employed to explore the role of constructive factors. Nevertheless, it is a significant factor in comparing anomaly extraction methods and precursor studies

A comprehensive multiparametric and multilayer approach to study the preparation phase of large earthquakes from ground to space: The case study of the June 15 2019, M7.2 Kermadec Islands (New Zealand) earthquake

This work deals with a comprehensive multiparametric and multilayer approach to study earthquake-related processes that occur during the preparation phase of a large earthquake. As a case study, the paper investigates the M7.2 Kermadec Islands (New Zealand) large earthquake that occurred on June 15, 2019 as the result of shallow reverse faulting within the Tonga-Kermadec subduction zone. The analyses focused on seismic (earthquake catalogs), atmospheric (climatological archives) and ionospheric data from ground to space (mainly satellite) in order to disclose the possible Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC). The ionospheric investigations analysed and compared the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver network with in-situ observations from space thanks to both the European Space Agency (ESA) Swarm constellation and the China National Space Administration (CNSA in partnership with Italian Space Agency, ASI) satellite dedicated to search for possible ionospheric disturbances before medium-large earthquakes, i.e. the China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES-01). An interesting comparison is made with another subsequent earthquake with comparable magnitude (M7.1) that occurred in Ridgecrest, California (USA) on 6 July of the same year but in a different tectonic context. Both earthquakes showed anomalies in several parameters (e.g. aerosol, skin temperature and some ionospheric quantities) that appeared at almost the same times before each earthquake occurrence, evidencing a chain of processes that collectively point to the moment of the corresponding mainshock. In both cases, it is demonstrated that a comprehensive multiparametric and multilayer analysis is fundamental to better understand the LAIC in the occasion of complex phenomena such as earthquakes.This work was undertaken in the framework of Limadou-Science+ funded by ASI (Italian Space Agency). Part of the funds were also given by Working Earth (Pianeta Dinamico) Project. We thank GeoNet (NZ) for providing TEC data (we also thank Claudio Cesaroni and Luca Spogli for giving suggestions on TEC data analyses) and the Kyoto World Data Center for Geomagnetism (http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/) for providing geomagnetic data indices. ESA is thanked for providing the Swarm satellite data and the CNSA (Chinese National Space Administration) for providing CSES-01 satellite data

Earth Resources: A continuing bibliography with indexes, Issue 35

This bibliography list 587 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information System between July 1, and September 30, 1982. Emphasis is placed on the use of remote sensing and geophysical instrumentation in spacecraft and aircraft to survey and inventory natural resources and urban areas. Subject matter is grouped according to agriculture and forestry, environmental changes and cultural resources, geodesy and cartography, geology and mineral resources, hydrology and water management, data processing and distribution systems, instrumentation and sensors, and economic analysis

Earth resources: A continuing bibliography with indexes (issue 52)

This bibliography lists 454 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system between October 1 and December 31, 1986. Emphasis is placed on the use of remote sensing and geophysical instrumentation in spacecraft and aircraft to survey and inventory natural resources and urban areas. Subject matter is grouped according to agriculture and forestry, environmental changes and cultural resources, geodesy and cartography, geology and mineral resources, hydrology and water management, data processing and distribution systems, instrumentation and sensors, and economic analysis

Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system

Global warming, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying socioeconomic disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, multiple interactions and complex structures of the Earth system, the understanding and, in particular, the prediction of such disruptive events represent formidable challenges to both scientific and policy communities. During the past years, the emergence and evolution of Earth system science has attracted much attention and produced new concepts and frameworks. Especially, novel statistical physics and complex networks-based techniques have been developed and implemented to substantially advance our knowledge of the Earth system, including climate extreme events, earthquakes and geological relief features, leading to substantially improved predictive performances. We present here a comprehensive review on the recent scientific progress in the development and application of how combined statistical physics and complex systems science approaches such as critical phenomena, network theory, percolation, tipping points analysis, and entropy can be applied to complex Earth systems. Notably, these integrating tools and approaches provide new insights and perspectives for understanding the dynamics of the Earth systems. The overall aim of this review is to offer readers the knowledge on how statistical physics concepts and theories can be useful in the field of Earth system science

Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system

Global climate change, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying natural disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions and complex structure of the Earth system, the understanding and in particular the predicting of such disruptive events represent formidable challenges for both scientific and policy communities. During the past years, the emergence and evolution of Earth system science has attracted much attention and produced new concepts and frameworks. Especially, novel statistical physics and complex networks-based techniques have been developed and implemented to substantially advance our knowledge for a better understanding of the Earth system, including climate extreme events, earthquakes and Earth geometric relief features, leading to substantially improved predictive performances. We present here a comprehensive review on the recent scientific progress in the development and application of how combined statistical physics and complex systems science approaches such as, critical phenomena, network theory, percolation, tipping points analysis, as well as entropy can be applied to complex Earth systems (climate, earthquakes, etc.). Notably, these integrating tools and approaches provide new insights and perspectives for understanding the dynamics of the Earth systems. The overall aim of this review is to offer readers the knowledge on how statistical physics approaches can be useful in the field of Earth system science