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Predicting business failure using artificial intelligence system
This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonPredicting business insolvency is considered one of the main supportive sources of information
for decision making for financial institutions, investors, creditors, and other participants in the
business market. Financial reporting systems provide relevant information that can be used to
assess the financial position of firms. It is crucial to have classification and prediction models
that can analyse this financial information and provide accurate assurance for users about
business health. Recent studies have explored the use of machine learning tools as substitute
for traditional statistical methods to develop classification models to classify firm insolvency
according to financial statement information. However, these models have no ideal classifier,
since each provides a certain percentage of wrong outputs, which is a crucial consideration;
every percentage of wrong response can mean massive financial losses for stakeholders.
Therefore, this study proposes new insolvency classification and perdition models based on
machine learning modelling techniques to develop an improved classifier.
Individual modelling techniques using statistical methods and machine learning were used to
develop the classification model of business insolvency. The results showed that machine
learning method outperformed statistical methods. Deep Learning (DPL) achieved the highest
performance based on all performance measurements used in the study, and it was the best
individual classifier, with average accuracy of 97.2% using all-years dataset. Ensemble-
Boosted Decision Tree classifier ranked second, followed by Decision Tree classifier. Thus, it
has been proven that DPL modelling approach is useful for business insolvency classification.
A key contribution in enhancing individual classifier outputs is the use of traditional combining
methods with two new aggregation methods in business insolvency (Fuzzy Logic and
Consensus Approach). The Consensus Approach showed the best improvement in the results
of all individual classifiers with average accuracy of 97.7%, and it is considered the best
classification method not only in comparison with individual classifiers, but also with
traditional combiners.
This study pioneers the development of a time series business insolvency prediction model
with Big Data for UK businesses. The aim of the model is to provide early prediction about a
business health. Three prediction models were developed based on Nonlinear Autoregressive
with Exogenous Input models (NARX), Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network (NAR),
and Deep Learning Time-series model (DPL-SA) and achieved average accuracy rates of
83.6%, 89.5%, and 91.35%, respectively. The results show relatively high performance in
comparison with the best individual classifier (deep learning)
Updating the Lambda modes of a nuclear power reactor
[EN] Starting from a steady state configuration of a nuclear power reactor some situations arise in which the reactor configuration is perturbed. The Lambda modes are eigenfunctions associated with a given configuration of the reactor, which have successfully been used to describe unstable events in BWRs. To compute several eigenvalues and its corresponding eigenfunctions for a nuclear reactor is quite expensive from the computational point of view. Krylov subspace methods are efficient methods to compute the dominant Lambda modes associated with a given configuration of the reactor, but if the Lambda modes have to be computed for different perturbed configurations of the reactor more efficient methods can be used. In this paper, different methods for the updating Lambda modes problem will be proposed and compared by computing the dominant Lambda modes of different configurations associated with a Boron injection transient in a typical BWR reactor. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.This work has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Educacion y Ciencia under projects ENE2008-02669 and MTM2007-64477-AR07, the Generalitat Valenciana under project ACOMP/2009/058, and the Universidad Politecnica de Valencia under project PAID-05-09-4285.González Pintor, S.; Ginestar Peiro, D.; VerdĂş MartĂn, GJ. (2011). Updating the Lambda modes of a nuclear power reactor. Mathematical and Computer Modelling. 54(7):1796-1801. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2010.12.013S1796180154
The Serving Supervisor: Supervisor Servant Leadership as a Protective Factor for Counseling Residents’ Burnout and Secondary Traumatic Stress
According to Stamm (2010), variables in counselors’ work environment, personal environment, and client environment precipitate the development of compassion fatigue. Compassion fatigue, which comprises secondary traumatic stress and burnout, is an occupational hazard for counselors, and new counselors are especially vulnerable. A supervisory style that exhibits servant leadership traits may provide necessary support and counteract compassion fatigue symptoms for counseling residents. Servant leadership shares many philosophical assumptions of the counseling profession and addresses the administrative challenges many clinical supervisors face today (Evans, Wright, Murphy, & Maki, 2016). A sample of 241 counseling residents participated in the study and completed several instruments. Data were analyzed with two structural equation models to identify the impact of the perceived servant leadership traits of supervisors on counseling residents’ compassion fatigue, burnout, and secondary traumatic stress with other relevant predictors. Limitations, avenues for future research, and implications for counselor education and supervision are discussed
Interactive Imitation Learning in Robotics: A Survey
Interactive Imitation Learning (IIL) is a branch of Imitation Learning (IL)
where human feedback is provided intermittently during robot execution allowing
an online improvement of the robot's behavior. In recent years, IIL has
increasingly started to carve out its own space as a promising data-driven
alternative for solving complex robotic tasks. The advantages of IIL are its
data-efficient, as the human feedback guides the robot directly towards an
improved behavior, and its robustness, as the distribution mismatch between the
teacher and learner trajectories is minimized by providing feedback directly
over the learner's trajectories. Nevertheless, despite the opportunities that
IIL presents, its terminology, structure, and applicability are not clear nor
unified in the literature, slowing down its development and, therefore, the
research of innovative formulations and discoveries. In this article, we
attempt to facilitate research in IIL and lower entry barriers for new
practitioners by providing a survey of the field that unifies and structures
it. In addition, we aim to raise awareness of its potential, what has been
accomplished and what are still open research questions. We organize the most
relevant works in IIL in terms of human-robot interaction (i.e., types of
feedback), interfaces (i.e., means of providing feedback), learning (i.e.,
models learned from feedback and function approximators), user experience
(i.e., human perception about the learning process), applications, and
benchmarks. Furthermore, we analyze similarities and differences between IIL
and RL, providing a discussion on how the concepts offline, online, off-policy
and on-policy learning should be transferred to IIL from the RL literature. We
particularly focus on robotic applications in the real world and discuss their
implications, limitations, and promising future areas of research
Made to Stick : The Book by Chip and Dan Heath, Adapted to a Library Audience
Presentation of ideas from the book Made to Stick outlining the five steps to SUCCES which include Simple, Unexpected, Concrete, Credible, Emotional, and Stories
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