Network tomography based on 1-D projections

Network tomography has been regarded as one of the most promising methodologies for performance evaluation and diagnosis of the massive and decentralized Internet. This paper proposes a new estimation approach for solving a class of inverse problems in network tomography, based on marginal distributions of a sequence of one-dimensional linear projections of the observed data. We give a general identifiability result for the proposed method and study the design issue of these one dimensional projections in terms of statistical efficiency. We show that for a simple Gaussian tomography model, there is an optimal set of one-dimensional projections such that the estimator obtained from these projections is asymptotically as efficient as the maximum likelihood estimator based on the joint distribution of the observed data. For practical applications, we carry out simulation studies of the proposed method for two instances of network tomography. The first is for traffic demand tomography using a Gaussian Origin-Destination traffic model with a power relation between its mean and variance, and the second is for network delay tomography where the link delays are to be estimated from the end-to-end path delays. We compare estimators obtained from our method and that obtained from using the joint distribution and other lower dimensional projections, and show that in both cases, the proposed method yields satisfactory results.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921707000000238 in the IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Closed Queueing Network Demands from Queue Length Data

Resource demand estimation is essential for the application of analyical models, such as queueing networks, to real-world systems. In this paper, we investigate maximum likelihood (ML) estimators for service demands in closed queueing networks with load-independent and load-dependent service times. Stemming from a characterization of necessary conditions for ML estimation, we propose new estimators that infer demands from queue-length measurements, which are inexpensive metrics to collect in real systems. One advantage of focusing on queue-length data compared to response times or utilizations is that confidence intervals can be rigorously derived from the equilibrium distribution of the queueing network model. Our estimators and their confidence intervals are validated against simulation and real system measurements for a multi-tier application

Modeling operational risk data reported above a time-varying threshold

Typically, operational risk losses are reported above a threshold. Fitting data reported above a constant threshold is a well known and studied problem. However, in practice, the losses are scaled for business and other factors before the fitting and thus the threshold is varying across the scaled data sample. A reporting level may also change when a bank changes its reporting policy. We present both the maximum likelihood and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches to fitting the frequency and severity loss distributions using data in the case of a time varying threshold. Estimation of the annual loss distribution accounting for parameter uncertainty is also presented