Bayesian neural network learning for repeat purchase modelling in direct marketing.

We focus on purchase incidence modelling for a European direct mail company. Response models based on statistical and neural network techniques are contrasted. The evidence framework of MacKay is used as an example implementation of Bayesian neural network learning, a method that is fairly robust with respect to problems typically encountered when implementing neural networks. The automatic relevance determination (ARD) method, an integrated feature of this framework, allows to assess the relative importance of the inputs. The basic response models use operationalisations of the traditionally discussed Recency, Frequency and Monetary (RFM) predictor categories. In a second experiment, the RFM response framework is enriched by the inclusion of other (non-RFM) customer profiling predictors. We contribute to the literature by providing experimental evidence that: (1) Bayesian neural networks offer a viable alternative for purchase incidence modelling; (2) a combined use of all three RFM predictor categories is advocated by the ARD method; (3) the inclusion of non-RFM variables allows to significantly augment the predictive power of the constructed RFM classifiers; (4) this rise is mainly attributed to the inclusion of customer\slash company interaction variables and a variable measuring whether a customer uses the credit facilities of the direct mailing company.Marketing; Companies; Models; Model; Problems; Neural networks; Networks; Variables; Credit;

Learning Discriminative Bayesian Networks from High-dimensional Continuous Neuroimaging Data

Due to its causal semantics, Bayesian networks (BN) have been widely employed to discover the underlying data relationship in exploratory studies, such as brain research. Despite its success in modeling the probability distribution of variables, BN is naturally a generative model, which is not necessarily discriminative. This may cause the ignorance of subtle but critical network changes that are of investigation values across populations. In this paper, we propose to improve the discriminative power of BN models for continuous variables from two different perspectives. This brings two general discriminative learning frameworks for Gaussian Bayesian networks (GBN). In the first framework, we employ Fisher kernel to bridge the generative models of GBN and the discriminative classifiers of SVMs, and convert the GBN parameter learning to Fisher kernel learning via minimizing a generalization error bound of SVMs. In the second framework, we employ the max-margin criterion and build it directly upon GBN models to explicitly optimize the classification performance of the GBNs. The advantages and disadvantages of the two frameworks are discussed and experimentally compared. Both of them demonstrate strong power in learning discriminative parameters of GBNs for neuroimaging based brain network analysis, as well as maintaining reasonable representation capacity. The contributions of this paper also include a new Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) constraint with theoretical guarantee to ensure the graph validity of GBN.Comment: 16 pages and 5 figures for the article (excluding appendix

The robust selection of predictive genes via a simple classifier

Identifying genes that direct the mechanism of a disease from expression data is extremely useful in understanding how that mechanism works. This in turn may lead to better diagnoses and potentially can lead to a cure for that disease. This task becomes extremely challenging when the data are characterised by only a small number of samples and a high number of dimensions, as it is often the case with gene expression data. Motivated by this challenge, we present a general framework that focuses on simplicity and data perturbation. These are the keys for the robust identification of the most predictive features in such data. Within this framework, we propose a simple selective na¨ıve Bayes classifier discovered using a global search technique, and combine it with data perturbation to increase its robustness to small sample sizes. An extensive validation of the method was carried out using two applied datasets from the field of microarrays and a simulated dataset, all confounded by small sample sizes and high dimensionality. The method has been shown capable of identifying genes previously confirmed or associated with prostate cancer and viral infections

Short-segment heart sound classification using an ensemble of deep convolutional neural networks

This paper proposes a framework based on deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for automatic heart sound classification using short-segments of individual heart beats. We design a 1D-CNN that directly learns features from raw heart-sound signals, and a 2D-CNN that takes inputs of two- dimensional time-frequency feature maps based on Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC). We further develop a time-frequency CNN ensemble (TF-ECNN) combining the 1D-CNN and 2D-CNN based on score-level fusion of the class probabilities. On the large PhysioNet CinC challenge 2016 database, the proposed CNN models outperformed traditional classifiers based on support vector machine and hidden Markov models with various hand-crafted time- and frequency-domain features. Best classification scores with 89.22% accuracy and 89.94% sensitivity were achieved by the ECNN, and 91.55% specificity and 88.82% modified accuracy by the 2D-CNN alone on the test set.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure, conferenc