Analysis of Zambia’s whole–of–government monitoring and evaluation system in the context of national development plans

Text in EnglishThis research study aimed to investigate and provide a comprehensive analysis of Zambia’s whole-of-government monitoring and evaluation system (WoGM&ES) in the context of national development plans (NDPs) within the broader agenda of good governance and poverty reduction. The study considered the period 1964 to 2021—a period covering all the seven (7) NDPs for Zambia since independence. The study focused on monitoring and evaluation (M&E) arrangements in the public sector as articulated in these NDPs and other government policies as well as structural operations. The research was centred on five (5) secondary objectives, namely a) justifying the theoretical significance of Zambia's WoGM&ES to improve public-sector good governance and poverty reduction agenda through the theory of change; b) presenting Zambia as a case study in terms of the results-based WoGM&ES; c) identifying gaps inhibiting the implementation of a results-focused WoGM&ES for Zambia’s public sector; d) establishing cornerstones necessary for building a results-based WoGM&ES for Zambia’s public sector; and e) proposing a new model for the enhanced WoGM&ES for Zambia’s public sector. Striving for functional M&E systems is a global phenomenon that requires commitment by all stakeholders and M&E of development interventions has become a vehicle that assists development agencies globally to demonstrate results to show to their stakeholders and beneficiaries. Thus, the starting point was to contend that M&E had increasingly become a useful tool towards good governance and that more institutions and governments had adopted it. The study then demonstrates how an M&E system, and, more so, a WoGM&ES, was crucial to implementing a thriving M&E culture for any country or organisation. In terms of scope, the study drew respondents from across government functionaries at national, line ministry, province and district level. Respondents from non-state institutions and M&E practitioners were also part of the study. The research was exploratory and investigatory and used the qualitative research approach to guide its design, data collection, collation and analysis, conclusion, recommendations and presentation. Further, purposive sampling was used to select respondents from these various institutions. Data collection benefited through the use of closed and open-ended questions from both secondary and primary sources. Nvivo software, text analysis as well as the analytical tool called LEADS comprised of a 5-point scoring scale were adopted and used for discussion and analysis of field data and information. The analytical instrument adopted to guide the research comprises of six components, namely: i) policy, ii) methodology, iii) organisation, iv) capacity, v) participation of actors outside government, and vi) the use of information from M&E. These components form the diagnostic checklist (analytical framework) used to assess the current status of Zambia’s WoGM&ES. In many ways, Zambia’s public sector system for M&E was found to be weak. At all levels—national, line ministry, provincial and district, M&E arrangements and practice were found to be poor. Both the supply side and the demand side of Zambia’s country level M&E system were unable to provide stakeholders with required and adequate information to inform critical development processes, such as policy-making, decision-making, planning, budgeting, resource allocation and advocacy. Gaps were identified in all the six components of the diagnostic checklist and improvements will be necessary as suggested and recommended under each one of them to make the WoGM&ES viable to meet the expectations of stakeholders. While the supply side of the system was relatively found to be well developed, the demand side was worse off. On the supply side, the study found that the policy and methodology components were fairly well developed. However, the component on the use of information by stakeholders, on the demand side, was found to be poorly developed. Further, various capacities in M&E were acknowledged as lacking across the WoGM&ES. The participation of actors outside government in strengthening the country system for M&E was also found to be weak, in many cases presented with lots of parallel and fragmented stand-alone systems. The policy environment in support of M&E strengthening and expansion was equally reported as one of the key areas that required attention from both political and technical powers that be. Although Zambia’s WoGM&ES was found to be weak in many aspects, it is noteworthy to mention that it has the necessary features for success. The study established that at national level, there were currently efforts to make M&E work in government. Such activities as creating a structure responsible for coordinating M&E across government, automating data management and information flows as well as developing a national M&E policy were reported to be ongoing efforts. To improve and enhance Zambia’s WoGM&ES, this study has proposed a model. Firstly, the new model recommends a structural shift in the manner M&E is coordinated at national level. The presidency was identified as the most appropriate location or entity to hold the responsibility of overseeing the WoGM&ES and in constantly as well as dedicatedly demanding for development results. The model is proposed as a transformational and long term strife and commitment by the current and successive governments. It was established that the current arrangement where the Ministry of National Development Planning (MNDP) was overseeing the WoGM&ES had led to operational gaps related to weak funding to M&E activities and high level policy clout. Generally, there is lack of influence (both political and technical) to spur an M&E transformational agenda for the country, let alone within the public sector. Therefore, the proposed model advances that the presidency will have the motivation and capacity to resolve these weaknesses a great deal. Specifically, the model suggests the establishment of an evaluation structure under the presidency to work as an apex institution to drive and champion the cause for a robust results-based WoGM&ES for the Zambian public sector. To formalise this arrangement, a well-defined M&E legislation will be needed. In addition, the proposed model has made salient recommendations on how to build and strengthen both the supply side and demand side of Zambia’s WoGM&ES. These two sides are considered vital for success of the country system for M&E and government and its stakeholders and partners will do well to invest in building and sustaining the supply and demand sides. In proposing a new architecture for Zambia’s WoGM&ES, the proposed model has acknowledged and incorporated the current positive practices and arrangements. Finally, the study has among others recommended that all government levels should create formal structures mandated to undertake M&E functions. These entities should be equipped with skilled staff in M&E, funding, technologies and relevant equipment. This research has also enriched literature on M&E and its relationship with good governance. Equally, a number of M&E issues such as political, technical and international best practices have been raised to prompt future research and development.Development StudiesPh.D. (Development Studies

Ontology driven clinical decision support for early diagnostic recommendations

Diagnostic error is a significant problem in medicine and a major cause of concern for patients and clinicians and is associated with moderate to severe harm to patients. Diagnostic errors are a primary cause of clinical negligence and can result in malpractice claims. Cognitive errors caused by biases such as premature closure and confirmation bias have been identified as major cause of diagnostic error. Researchers have identified several strategies to reduce diagnostic error arising from cognitive factors. This includes considering alternatives, reducing reliance on memory, providing access to clear and well-organized information. Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSSs) have been shown to reduce diagnostic errors. Clinical guidelines improve consistency of care and can potentially improve healthcare efficiency. They can alert clinicians to diagnostic tests and procedures that have the greatest evidence and provide the greatest benefit. Clinical guidelines can be used to streamline clinical decision making and provide the knowledge base for guideline based CDSSs and clinical alert systems. Clinical guidelines can potentially improve diagnostic decision making by improving information gathering. Argumentation is an emerging area for dealing with unstructured evidence in domains such as healthcare that are characterized by uncertainty. The knowledge needed to support decision making is expressed in the form of arguments. Argumentation has certain advantages over other decision support reasoning methods. This includes the ability to function with incomplete information, the ability to capture domain knowledge in an easy manner, using non-monotonic logic to support defeasible reasoning and providing recommendations in a manner that can be easily explained to clinicians. Argumentation is therefore a suitable method for generating early diagnostic recommendations. Argumentation-based CDSSs have been developed in a wide variety of clinical domains. However, the impact of an argumentation-based diagnostic Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) has not been evaluated yet. The first part of this thesis evaluates the impact of guideline recommendations and an argumentation-based diagnostic CDSS on clinician information gathering and diagnostic decision making. In addition, the impact of guideline recommendations on management decision making was evaluated. The study found that argumentation is a viable method for generating diagnostic recommendations that can potentially help reduce diagnostic error. The study showed that guideline recommendations do have a positive impact on information gathering of optometrists and can potentially help optometrists in asking the right questions and performing tests as per current standards of care. Guideline recommendations were found to have a positive impact on management decision making. The CDSS is dependent on quality of data that is entered into the system. Faulty interpretation of data can lead the clinician to enter wrong data and cause the CDSS to provide wrong recommendations. Current generation argumentation-based CDSSs and other diagnostic decision support systems have problems with semantic interoperability that prevents them from using data from the web. The clinician and CDSS is limited to information collected during a clinical encounter and cannot access information on the web that could be relevant to a patient. This is due to the distributed nature of medical information and lack of semantic interoperability between healthcare systems. Current argumentation-based decision support applications require specialized tools for modelling and execution and this prevents widespread use and adoption of these tools especially when these tools require additional training and licensing arrangements. Semantic web and linked data technologies have been developed to overcome problems with semantic interoperability on the web. Ontology-based diagnostic CDSS applications have been developed using semantic web technology to overcome problems with semantic interoperability of healthcare data in decision support applications. However, these models have problems with expressiveness, requiring specialized software and algorithms for generating diagnostic recommendations. The second part of this thesis describes the development of an argumentation-based ontology driven diagnostic model and CDSS that can execute this model to generate ranked diagnostic recommendations. This novel model called the Disease-Symptom Model combines strengths of argumentation with strengths of semantic web technology. The model allows the domain expert to model arguments favouring and negating a diagnosis using OWL/RDF language. The model uses a simple weighting scheme that represents the degree of support of each argument within the model. The model uses SPARQL to sum weights and produce a ranked diagnostic recommendation. The model can provide justifications for each recommendation in a manner that clinicians can easily understand. CDSS prototypes that can execute this ontology model to generate diagnostic recommendations were developed. The decision support prototypes demonstrated the ability to use a wide variety of data and access remote data sources using linked data technologies to generate recommendations. The thesis was able to demonstrate the development of an argumentation-based ontology driven diagnostic decision support model and decision support system that can integrate information from a variety of sources to generate diagnostic recommendations. This decision support application was developed without the use of specialized software and tools for modelling and execution, while using a simple modelling method. The third part of this thesis details evaluation of the Disease-Symptom model across all stages of a clinical encounter by comparing the performance of the model with clinicians. The evaluation showed that the Disease-Symptom Model can provide a ranked diagnostic recommendation in early stages of the clinical encounter that is comparable to clinicians. The diagnostic performance can be improved in the early stages using linked data technologies to incorporate more information into the decision making. With limited information, depending on the type of case, the performance of the Disease-Symptom Model will vary. As more information is collected during the clinical encounter the decision support application can provide recommendations that is comparable to clinicians recruited for the study. The evaluation showed that even with a simple weighting and summation method used in the Disease- Symptom Model the diagnostic ranking was comparable to dentists. With limited information in the early stages of the clinical encounter the Disease-Symptom Model was able to provide an accurately ranked diagnostic recommendation validating the model and methods used in this thesis

Principles for aerospace manufacturing engineering in integrated new product introduction

This article investigates the value-adding practices of Manufacturing Engineering for integrated New Product Introduction. A model representing how current practices align to support lean integration in Manufacturing Engineering has been defined. The results are used to identify a novel set of guiding principles for integrated Manufacturing Engineering. These are as follows: (1) use a data-driven process, (2) build from core capabilities, (3) develop the standard, (4) deliver through responsive processes and (5) align cross-functional and customer requirements. The investigation used a mixed-method approach. This comprises case studies to identify current practice and a survey to understand implementation in a sample of component development projects within a major aerospace manufacturer. The research contribution is an illustration of aerospace Manufacturing Engineering practices for New Product Introduction. The conclusions will be used to indicate new priorities for New Product Introduction and the cross-functional interactions to support flawless and innovative New Product Introduction. The final principles have been validated through a series of consultations with experts in the sponsoring company to ensure that correct and relevant content has been defined

An engineering approach to business model experimentation – an online investment research startup case study

Every organization needs a viable business model. Strikingly, most of current literature is focused on business model design, whereas there is almost no attention for business model validation and implementation and related business model experimentation. The goal of the research as described in this paper is to develop a business model engineering tool for supporting business model management as a continuous design, validation and implementation cycle. The tool is applied to an online investment research startup in roll out and market phase. This paper describes the research as performed in a case study setting by focusing on the design, implementation and evaluation of the business model engineering tool. We also analyze the actual implementation and usage of the business model tool by the online investment research startup by focusing on the most critical actions related to actual business model implementation – i.e. actions with so-called ‘Lollapalooza tendencies’

Discovery and Strategic Partnership Group Concept Mapping: 2014-2015 Progress Report

In 2014, New York State received funding from the U.S. Department of Education, Office of Special Education and Rehabilitative Services to begin the NYS PROMISE (Promote the Readiness of Minors in Supplemental Security Income) research initiative. The goal of this initiative is to coordinate the system of support surrounding these youths to better catalyze their potential to transition from Supplemental Security Income (SSI) to a sustainable future of living and earning as independent adults. To guide strategy and support PROMISE priorities over the course of the initiative, NYS PROMISE convened the NYS PROMISE Steering Committee, comprised of appointed liaisons from agencies who are connected to the NYS PROMISE initiative. To support sustainable partnership development for greater progress and impact on the goals of NYS PROMISE, the Steering Committee engaged in a structured, time sensitive strategic planning and partnership framework development effort. To develop the elements of a prioritized strategy, the group used Group Concept Mapping (GCM), and constructed a visual framework, or concept map, that served as the basis for prioritization and strategy development throughout the process. The GCM approach employs a group process to capture individual contributions for consensus around a given topic, using a structured approach with a specific sequence of steps that support timely and consistent engagement in the process. GCM incorporates opinions and values, and presents the results in ways that are understandable and usable. 25 individuals from 8 member agencies took part in the concept map development, contributing elements in response to the following prompt: “To yield enduring individual outcomes, a viable system to support youth with disabilities in their transition from high school to successful adult lives needs to include…

Planning Rural Water Services in Nicaragua: A Systems-Based Analysis of Impact Factors Using Graphical Modeling

The success or failure of rural water services in the developing world is a result of numerous factors that interact in a complex set of connections that are difficult to separate and identify. This research effort presented a novel means to empirically reveal the systemic interactions of factors that influence rural water service sustainability in the municipalities of Darío and Terrabona, Nicaragua. To accomplish this, the study employed graphical modeling to build and analyze factor networks. Influential factors were first identified by qualitatively and quantitatively analyzing transcribed interviews from community water committee members. Factor influences were then inferred by graphical modeling to create factor network diagrams that revealed the direct and indirect interaction of factors. Finally, network analysis measures were used to identify “impact factors” based on their relative influence within each factor network. Findings from this study elucidated the systematic nature of such factor interactions in both Darío and Terrabona, and highlighted key areas for programmatic impact on water service sustainability for both municipalities. Specifically, in Darío, the impact areas related to the current importance of water service management by community water committees, while in Terrabona, the impact areas related to the current importance of finances, viable water sources, and community capacity building by external support. Overall, this study presents a rigorous and useful means to identify impact factors as a way to facilitate the thoughtful planning and evaluation of sustainable rural water services in Nicaragua and beyond

From viability to sustainability: the contribution of the viable systems approach (VSA)

The current dynamics of business systems require new ways of conceiving the role of single entities. On this basis, a complex of interactions between the company and the reference context must be activated to guarantee survival dynamics. From these considerations re-emerge the ideas of Peccei (2013) and King (2013) that recognise in the systemic thought the foundations for a sustainable society. The present study derives from these considerations, and aims at contributing to the advancement of the knowledge necessary to overcome the challenges in the sustainability field. The methodological approach, albeit heuristic, can be traced back to the positive scientific and constructivist method. The results of the study showed the prevalence of qualitative and subjective techniques, accompanied by the so-called inductive method, testifying to the intense interaction between the scholar and the object investigated. With regard to future research, it would be interesting to construct a flexible, scalable and extensible model to recover both a database and an ontology for the theoretical framework

Improving Design of Micro-business Systems via VSM and Constituent Orientation Analysis

This paper describes recent design research into prototypical ‘classes’ of designs for operational business systems for micro-businesses of 1-10 employees typical of traditional craft and contemporary information economies. Business process design is an increasingly important and relatively new sub-field of design and design research. Its increasing importance is driven by three factors made more potent by information technology: increasing ability for very small business units to contribute to local and national economies; potential for increased efficiency of micro-businesses via reduction in Coasian transaction costs; increasingly competitive business environments leading to pressure on micro-businesses to deeply cut costs; and increased potential for improved design of micro-business processes to create significant benefits for the micro-businesses themselves and to local and national economies. The analyses used in this paper combine Tellefsen's perspective on constituent orientation with Beerian Viable System analysis and Cashflow Quadrant analysis (Beer, 1972, 1988, 1989, 1995; Kiyosaki & Lechter, 2007; Tellefsen, 1995, 1999, 2001; Tellefsen & Love, 2003). These analyses are used to identify promising foci of design effort particularly with the intention of automating and systematizing business activities. The paper first describes the importance of developing improved guidelines for design of organisational structures and business processes in the micro-business arena. It then outlines the structural, humanistic, financial, business management and computerized automation considerations that need to be addressed. Design issues are illustrated via mini case studies of three characteristic micro-businesses in the areas of publishing, plumbing, and rental investment. The paper shows how improvements to the design of business processes can be viewed through how four constituent orientations: • Self employed • Business managers • Business owners • Investors The paper concludes by integrating the outcomes of the above analyses into a preliminary checklist for the design of effective and efficient automated and systematized business processes for micro-businesses and small business enterprises. Keywords: Business Process Design, Micro-Business, Viable Systems, Constituent Orientation, Cashflow Quadrant Analysis.</p

Extending the product portfolio with ‘devolved manufacturing’: Methodology and case studies

Current research by the developers of rapid prototyping systems is generally focused on improvements in cost, speed and materials to create truly economic and practical economic rapid manufacturing machines. In addition to being potentially smarter/faster/cheaper replacements for existing manufacturing technologies, the next generation of these machines will provide opportunities not only for the design and fabrication of products without traditional constraints, but also for organizing manufacturing activities in new, innovative and previously undreamt of ways. This paper outlines a novel devolved manufacturing (DM) ‘factory-less’ approach to e-manufacturing, which integrates Mass Customization (MC) concepts, Rapid Manufacturing (RM) technologies and the communication opportunities of the Internet/WWW, describes two case studies of different DM implementations and discusses the limitations and appropriateness of each, and finally, draws some conclusions about the technical, manufacturing and business challenges involved