A review of machine learning applications in wildfire science and management

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML in wildfire science and management. Our objective is to improve awareness of ML among wildfire scientists and managers, as well as illustrate the challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to data scientists. We first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date, and then review their use in wildfire science within six problem domains: 1) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; 2) fire weather and climate change; 3) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; 4) fire behavior prediction; 5) fire effects; and 6) fire management. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches and identify opportunities for future advances in wildfire science and management within a data science context. We identified 298 relevant publications, where the most frequently used ML methods included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. There exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods (e.g., deep learning and agent based learning) in wildfire science. However, despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods requires sophisticated knowledge for their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management community plays an active role in providing relevant, high quality data for use by practitioners of ML methods.Comment: 83 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

A Brief Review of Machine Learning Algorithms in Forest Fires Science

Due to the harm forest fires cause to the environment and the economy as they occur more frequently around the world, early fire prediction and detection are necessary. To anticipate and discover forest fires, several technologies and techniques were put forth. To forecast the likelihood of forest fires and evaluate the risk of forest fire-induced damage, artificial intelligence techniques are a crucial enabling technology. In current times, there has been a lot of interest in machine learning techniques. The machine learning methods that are used to identify and forecast forest fires are reviewed in this article. Selecting the best forecasting model is a constant gamble because each ML algorithm has advantages and disadvantages. Our main goal is to discover the research gaps and recent studies that use machine learning techniques to study forest fires. By choosing the best ML techniques based on particular forest characteristics, the current research results boost prediction power

An application of Bayesian Belief Networks to assess management scenarios for aquaculture in a complex tropical lake system in Indonesia

A Bayesian Belief Network, validated using past observational data, is applied to conceptualize the ecological response of Lake Maninjau, a tropical lake ecosystem in Indonesia, to tilapia cage farms operating on the lake and to quantify its impacts to assist decision making. The model captures ecosystem services trade-offs between cage farming and native fish loss. It is used to appraise options for lake management related to the minimization of the impacts of the cage farms. The constructed model overcomes difficulties with limited data availability to illustrate the complex physical and biogeochemical interactions contributing to triggering mass fish kills due to upwelling and the loss in the production of native fish related to the operation of cage farming. The model highlights existing information gaps in the research related to the management of the farms in the study area, which is applicable to other tropical lakes in general. Model results suggest that internal phosphorous loading (IPL) should be recognized as one of the primary targets of the deep eutrophic tropical lake restoration efforts. Theoretical and practical contributions of the model and model expansions are discussed. Short- and longer-term actions to contribute to a more sustainable management are recommended and include epilimnion aeration and sediment capping

Review of the use of remote sensing for monitoring wildfire risk conditions to support fire risk assessment in protected areas

Fire risk assessment is one of the most important components in the management of fire that offers the framework for monitoring fire risk conditions. Whilst monitoring fire risk conditions commonly revolved around field data, Remote Sensing (RS) plays key role in quantifying and monitoring fire risk indicators. This study presents a review of remote sensing data and techniques for fire risk monitoring and assessment with a particular emphasis on its implications for wildfire risk mapping in protected areas. Firstly, we concentrate on RS derived variables employed to monitor fire risk conditions for fire risk assessment. Thereafter, an evaluation of the prominent RS platforms such as Broadband, Hyperspectral and Active sensors that have been utilized for wildfire risk assessment. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness in obtaining information that has operational use or immediate potentials for operational application in protected areas (PAs). RS techniques that involve extraction of landscape information from imagery were summarised. The review concludes that in practice, fire risk assessment that consider all variables/indicators that influence fire risk is impossible to establish, however it is imperative to incorporate indicators or variables of very high heterogeneous and “multi-sensoral or multivariate fire risk index approach for fire risk assessment in PA.Keywords: Protected Areas, Fire Risk conditions; Remote Sensing, Wildfire risk assessmen

A general framework for quantifying the effects of land-use history on ecosystem dynamics

Land-use legacies are important for explaining present-day ecological patterns and processes. However, an overarching approach to quantify land-use history effects on ecosystem properties is lacking, mainly due to the scarcity of high-quality, complete and detailed data on past land use. We propose a general framework for quantifying the effects of land-use history on ecosystem properties, which is applicable (i) to different ecological processes in various ecosystem types and across trophic levels; and (ii) when historical data are incomplete or of variable quality. The conceptual foundation of our framework is that past land use affects current (and future) ecosystem properties through altering the past values of resources and conditions that are the driving variables of ecosystem responses. We describe and illustrate how Markov chains can be applied to derive past time series of driving variables, and how these time series can be used to improve our understanding of present-day ecosystem properties. We present our framework in a stepwise manner, elucidating its general nature. We illustrate its application through a case study on the importance of past light levels for the contemporary understorey composition of temperate deciduous forest. We found that the understorey shows legacies of past forest management: high past light availability lead to a low proportion of typical forest species in the understorey. Our framework can be a useful tool for quantifying the effect of past land use on ecological patterns and processes and enhancing our understanding of ecosystem dynamics by including legacy effects which have often been ignored

How good are Bayesian belief networks for environmental management? A test with data from an agricultural river catchment

1. The ecological health of rivers worldwide continues to decline despite increasing effort and investment in river science and management. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are increasingly being used as a mechanism for decision-making in river management because they provide a simple visual framework to explore different management scenarios for the multiple stressors that impact rivers. However, most applications of BBN modelling to resource management use expert knowledge and/or limited real data, and fail to accurately assess the ability of the model to make predictions. 2. We developed a BBN to model ecological condition in a New Zealand river using field/GIS data (from multiple rivers), rather than expert opinion, and assessed its predictive ability on an independent dataset. The developed BBN performed moderately better than a number of other modelling techniques (e.g., artificial neural networks, classification trees, random forest, logistic regression), although model construction was more time3consuming. Thus the predictive ability of BBNs is (in this case at least) on a par with other modelling methods but the approach is distinctly better for its ability to visually present the data linkages, issues and potential outcomes of management options in real time. 3. The BBN suggested management of habitat quality, su ch as riparian planting, along with the current management focus on limiting nutrient leaching from agricultural land may be most effective in improving ecological condition. 4. BBNs can be a powerful and accurate method of effectively portraying the multiple interacting drivers of environmental condition in an easily understood manner. However, most BBN applications fail to appropriately test the model fit prior to use. We believe this lack of testing may seriously undermine their long-term effectiveness in resource management, and recommend that BBNs should be used in conjunction with some measure of uncertainty about model predictions. We have demonstrated this for a BBN of ecological condition in a New Zealand river, shown that model fit is better than that for other modelling techniques, and that improving habitat would be equally effective to reducing nutrients to improve ecological condition

Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Identify Potential Compatibilities and Conflicts Between Development and Landscape Conservation

Experts with different land use interests often use differing definitions of land suitability that can result in competing land use decisions. We use Bayesian belief networks linked to GIS data layers to integrate empirical data and expert knowledge from two different land use interests (development and conservation) in Maine’s Lower Penobscot River Watershed. Using ground locations and digital orthoquads, we determined the overall accuracy of the resulting development and conservation suitability maps to be 82% and 89%, respectively. Overlay of the two maps show large areas of land suitable for both conservation protection and economic development and provide multiple options for mitigating potential conflict among these competing land users. The modeling process can be adapted to help prioritize and choose among different alternatives as new information becomes available, or as land use and land-use policies change. The current model structure provides a maximal coverage strategy that allows decision makers to target and prioritize several areas for protection or development and to set specific strategies in the face of changing ecological, social, or economic processes. Having multiple options can generate new hypotheses and decisions at more local scales or for more specific conservation purposes not yet identified by stakeholders and decision makers in the region. Subsequently, new models can be developed using the same process, but with higher resolution data, thereby helping a community evaluate the impacts of alternative land uses between different prioritized areas at finer scales