Bayesian networks and decision trees in the diagnosis of female urinary incontinence

This study compares the effectiveness of Bayesian networks versus Decision Trees in modeling the Integral Theory of Female Urinary Incontinence diagnostic algorithm. Bayesian networks and Decision Trees were developed and trained using data from 58 adult women presenting with urinary incontinence symptoms. A Bayesian Network was developed in collaboration with an expert specialist who regularly utilizes a non-automated diagnostic algorithm in clinical practice. The original Bayesian network was later refined using a more connected approach. Diagnoses determined from all automated approaches were compared with the diagnoses of a single human expert. In most cases, Bayesian networks were found to be at least as accurate as the Decision Tree approach. The refined Connected Bayesian Network was found to be more accurate than the Original Bayesian Network accurately discriminated between diagnoses despite the small sample size. In contrast, the Connected and Decision Tree approaches were less able to discriminate between diagnoses. The Original Bayesian Network was found to provide an excellent basis for graphically communicating the correlation between symptoms and laxity defects in a given anatomical zone. Performance measures in both networks indicate that Bayesian networks could provide a potentially useful tool in the management of female pelvic floor dysfunction. Before the technique can be utilized in practice, well-established learning algorithms should be applied to improve network structure. A larger training data set should also improve network accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity

Data Mining Techniques for Fraud Detection

The paper presents application of data mining techniques to fraud analysis. We present some classification and prediction data mining techniques which we consider important to handle fraud detection. There exist a number of data mining algorithms and we present statistics-based algorithm, decision tree-based algorithm and rule-based algorithm. We present Bayesian classification model to detect fraud in automobile insurance. Naïve Bayesian visualization is selected to analyze and interpret the classifier predictions. We illustrate how ROC curves can be deployed for model assessment in order to provide a more intuitive analysis of the models. Keywords: Data Mining, Decision Tree, Bayesian Network, ROC Curve, Confusion Matri

Cost-sensitive Bayesian network learning using sampling

A significant advance in recent years has been the development of cost-sensitive decision tree learners, recognising that real world classification problems need to take account of costs of misclassification and not just focus on accuracy. The literature contains well over 50 cost-sensitive decision tree induction algorithms, each with varying performance profiles. Obtaining good Bayesian networks can be challenging and hence several algorithms have been proposed for learning their structure and parameters from data. However, most of these algorithms focus on learning Bayesian networks that aim to maximise the accuracy of classifications. Hence an obvious question that arises is whether it is possible to develop cost-sensitive Bayesian networks and whether they would perform better than cost-sensitive decision trees for minimising classification cost? This paper explores this question by developing a new Bayesian network learning algorithm based on changing the data distribution to reflect the costs of misclassification. The proposed method is explored by conducting experiments on over 20 data sets. The results show that this approach produces good results in comparison to more complex cost-sensitive decision tree algorithms