Bayesian Gait Optimization for Bipedal Locomotion

One of the key challenges in robotic bipedal locomotion is finding gait parameters that optimize a desired performance criterion, such as speed, robustness or energy efficiency. Typically, gait optimization requires extensive robot experiments and specific expert knowledge. We propose to apply data-driven machine learning to automate and speed up the process of gait optimization. In particular, we use Bayesian optimization to efficiently find gait parameters that optimize the desired performance metric. As a proof of concept we demonstrate that Bayesian optimization is near-optimal in a classical stochastic optimal control framework. Moreover, we validate our approach to Bayesian gait optimization on a low-cost and fragile real bipedal walker and show that good walking gaits can be efficiently found by Bayesian optimization. © 2014 Springer International Publishing

Half empty, half full and the possibility of agreeing to disagree

Aumann (1976) derives his famous we cannot agree to disagree result under the assumption of rational Bayesian learning. Motivated by psychological evidence against this assumption, we develop formal models of optimistically, resp. pessimistically, biased Bayesian learning within the framework of Choquet expected utility theory. As a key feature of our approach the posterior subjective beliefs do, in general, not converge to "true" probabilities. Moreover, the posteriors of different people can converge to different beliefs even if these people receive the same information. As our main contribution we show that people may well agree to disagree if their Bayesian learning is psychologically biased in our sense. Remarkably, this finding holds regardless of whether people with identical priors apply the same psychologically biased Bayesian learning rule or not. A simple example about the possibility of ex-post trading in a financial asset illustrates our formal findings. Finally, our analysis settles a discussion in the no-trade literature (cf. Dow, Madrigal, and Werlang 1990, Halevy 1998) in that it clarifies that ex-post trade between agents with common priors and identical learning rules is only possible under asymmetric information.Common Knowledge, No-Trade Results, Rational Bayesian Learning, Bounded Rationality, Choquet Expected Utility Theory, Bayesian Updating, Dynamic Inconsistency

Bayesian network learning with cutting planes

The problem of learning the structure of Bayesian networks from complete discrete data with a limit on parent set size is considered. Learning is cast explicitly as an optimisation problem where the goal is to find a BN structure which maximises log marginal likelihood (BDe score). Integer programming, specifically the SCIP framework, is used to solve this optimisation problem. Acyclicity constraints are added to the integer program (IP) during solving in the form of cutting planes. Finding good cutting planes is the key to the success of the approach -the search for such cutting planes is effected using a sub-IP. Results show that this is a particularly fast method for exact BN learning

Besov priors for Bayesian inverse problems

We consider the inverse problem of estimating a function $u$ from noisy, possibly nonlinear, observations. We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem. This approach has a long history for inversion, dating back to 1970, and has, over the last decade, gained importance as a practical tool. However most of the existing theory has been developed for Gaussian prior measures. Recently Lassas, Saksman and Siltanen (Inv. Prob. Imag. 2009) showed how to construct Besov prior measures, based on wavelet expansions with random coefficients, and used these prior measures to study linear inverse problems. In this paper we build on this development of Besov priors to include the case of nonlinear measurements. In doing so a key technical tool, established here, is a Fernique-like theorem for Besov measures. This theorem enables us to identify appropriate conditions on the forward solution operator which, when matched to properties of the prior Besov measure, imply the well-definedness and well-posedness of the posterior measure. We then consider the application of these results to the inverse problem of finding the diffusion coefficient of an elliptic partial differential equation, given noisy measurements of its solution.Comment: 18 page

What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?

We propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector autoregressions. Unlike most of the previous literature this approach does not require that the contemporaneous reaction of some variables to fiscal policy shocks be set to zero or need additional information, such as the timing of wars, in order to identify fiscal policy shocks. The paper's method is a purely vector autoregressive approach which can be universally applied. The approach also has the advantages that it is able to model the effects of announcements of future changes in fiscal policy and that it is able to distinguish between the changes in fiscal variables caused by fiscal policy shocks and those caused by business cycle and monetary policy shocks. We apply the method to US quarterly data from 1955-2000 and obtain interesting results. Our key finding is that the best fiscal policy to stimulate the economy is a deficit-financed tax cut and that the long term costs of fiscal expansion through government spending are probably greater than the short term gains.Fiscal Policy, Vector Autoregression, Bayesian Econometrics, Agnostic identification

Bayesian Optimization for Learning Gaits under Uncertainty

© 2015, Springer International Publishing Switzerland.Designing gaits and corresponding control policies is a key challenge in robot locomotion. Even with a viable controller parametrization, finding near-optimal parameters can be daunting. Typically, this kind of parameter optimization requires specific expert knowledge and extensive robot experiments. Automatic black-box gait optimization methods greatly reduce the need for human expertise and time-consuming design processes. Many different approaches for automatic gait optimization have been suggested to date. However, no extensive comparison among them has yet been performed. In this article, we thoroughly discuss multiple automatic optimization methods in the context of gait optimization. We extensively evaluate Bayesian optimization, a model-based approach to black-box optimization under uncertainty, on both simulated problems and real robots. This evaluation demonstrates that Bayesian optimization is particularly suited for robotic applications, where it is crucial to find a good set of gait parameters in a small number of experiments

Bayesian inference of atomistic structure in functional materials

Tailoring the functional properties of advanced organic/inorganic heterogeneous devices to their intended technological applications requires knowledge and control of the microscopic structure inside the device. Atomistic quantum mechanical simulation methods deliver accurate energies and properties for individual configurations, however, finding the most favourable configurations remains computationally prohibitive. We propose a 'building block'-based Bayesian Optimisation Structure Search (BOSS) approach for addressing extended organic/inorganic interface problems and demonstrate its feasibility in a molecular surface adsorption study. In BOSS, a Bayesian model identifies material energy landscapes in an accelerated fashion from atomistic configurations sampled during active learning. This allowed us to identify several most favourable molecular adsorption configurations for C-60 on the (101) surface of TiO2 anatase and clarify the key molecule-surface interactions governing structural assembly. Inferred structures were in good agreement with detailed experimental images of this surface adsorbate, demonstrating good predictive power of BOSS and opening the route towards large-scale surface adsorption studies of molecular aggregates and films.Peer reviewe