45,014 research outputs found
A space-time multivariate Bayesian model to analyse road traffic accidents by severity
The paper investigates the dependences between levels of severity of road traffic accidents, accounting at the same time for spatial and temporal correlations. The study analyses road traffic accidents data at ward level in England over the period 2005–2013. We include in our model multivariate spatially structured and unstructured effects to capture the dependences between severities, within a Bayesian hierarchical formulation. We also include a temporal component to capture the time effects and we carry out an extensive model comparison. The results show important associations in both spatially structured and unstructured effects between severities, and a downward temporal trend is observed for low and high levels of severity. Maps of posterior accident rates indicate elevated risk within big cities for accidents of low severity and in suburban areas in the north and on the southern coast of England for accidents of high severity. The posterior probability of extreme rates is used to suggest the presence of hot spots in a public health perspective.Areti Boulieri acknowledges support from the National Institute for Health Research and the Medical Research Council Doctoral Training Partnership. Marta Blangiardo acknowledges support from the National Institute for Health Research and the Medical Research Council–Public Health England Centre for Environment and Health. Silvia Liverani acknowledges support from the Leverhulme Trust (grant ECF-2011-576)
Spatial clustering of average risks and risk trends in Bayesian disease mapping
Spatiotemporal disease mapping focuses on estimating the spatial pattern in disease risk across a set of nonoverlapping areal units over a fixed period of time. The key aim of such research is to identify areas that have a high average level of disease risk or where disease risk is increasing over time, thus allowing public health interventions to be focused on these areas. Such aims are well suited to the statistical approach of clustering, and while much research has been done in this area in a purely spatial setting, only a handful of approaches have focused on spatiotemporal clustering of disease risk. Therefore, this paper outlines a new modeling approach for clustering spatiotemporal disease risk data, by clustering areas based on both their mean risk levels and the behavior of their temporal trends. The efficacy of the methodology is established by a simulation study, and is illustrated by a study of respiratory disease risk in Glasgow, Scotland
Clustering South African households based on their asset status using latent variable models
The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has since 2001
conducted a biannual household asset survey in order to quantify household
socio-economic status (SES) in a rural population living in northeast South
Africa. The survey contains binary, ordinal and nominal items. In the absence
of income or expenditure data, the SES landscape in the study population is
explored and described by clustering the households into homogeneous groups
based on their asset status. A model-based approach to clustering the Agincourt
households, based on latent variable models, is proposed. In the case of
modeling binary or ordinal items, item response theory models are employed. For
nominal survey items, a factor analysis model, similar in nature to a
multinomial probit model, is used. Both model types have an underlying latent
variable structure - this similarity is exploited and the models are combined
to produce a hybrid model capable of handling mixed data types. Further, a
mixture of the hybrid models is considered to provide clustering capabilities
within the context of mixed binary, ordinal and nominal response data. The
proposed model is termed a mixture of factor analyzers for mixed data (MFA-MD).
The MFA-MD model is applied to the survey data to cluster the Agincourt
households into homogeneous groups. The model is estimated within the Bayesian
paradigm, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Intuitive groupings
result, providing insight to the different socio-economic strata within the
Agincourt region.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS726 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Bayesian cluster detection via adjacency modelling
Disease mapping aims to estimate the spatial pattern in disease risk across an area, identifying units which have elevated disease risk. Existing methods use Bayesian hierarchical models with spatially smooth conditional autoregressive priors to estimate risk, but these methods are unable to identify the geographical extent of spatially contiguous high-risk clusters of areal units. Our proposed solution to this problem is a two-stage approach, which produces a set of potential cluster structures for the data and then chooses the optimal structure via a Bayesian hierarchical model. The first stage uses a spatially adjusted hierarchical agglomerative clustering algorithm. The second stage fits a Poisson log-linear model to the data to estimate the optimal cluster structure and the spatial pattern in disease risk. The methodology was applied to a study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in local authorities in England, where a number of high risk clusters were identified
Simultaneous Variable and Covariance Selection with the Multivariate Spike-and-Slab Lasso
We propose a Bayesian procedure for simultaneous variable and covariance
selection using continuous spike-and-slab priors in multivariate linear
regression models where q possibly correlated responses are regressed onto p
predictors. Rather than relying on a stochastic search through the
high-dimensional model space, we develop an ECM algorithm similar to the EMVS
procedure of Rockova & George (2014) targeting modal estimates of the matrix of
regression coefficients and residual precision matrix. Varying the scale of the
continuous spike densities facilitates dynamic posterior exploration and allows
us to filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances
gradually. Our method is seen to substantially outperform regularization
competitors on simulated data. We demonstrate our method with a re-examination
of data from a recent observational study of the effect of playing high school
football on several later-life cognition, psychological, and socio-economic
outcomes
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