Locally Adaptive Dynamic Networks

Our focus is on realistically modeling and forecasting dynamic networks of face-to-face contacts among individuals. Important aspects of such data that lead to problems with current methods include the tendency of the contacts to move between periods of slow and rapid changes, and the dynamic heterogeneity in the actors' connectivity behaviors. Motivated by this application, we develop a novel method for Locally Adaptive DYnamic (LADY) network inference. The proposed model relies on a dynamic latent space representation in which each actor's position evolves in time via stochastic differential equations. Using a state space representation for these stochastic processes and P\'olya-gamma data augmentation, we develop an efficient MCMC algorithm for posterior inference along with tractable procedures for online updating and forecasting of future networks. We evaluate performance in simulation studies, and consider an application to face-to-face contacts among individuals in a primary school

Dynamic infinite relational model for time-varying relational data analysis

We propose a new probabilistic model for analyzing dynamic evolutions of relational data, such as additions, deletions and split & merge, of relation clusters like communities in social networks. Our proposed model abstracts observed timevarying object-object relationships into relationships between object clusters. We extend the infinite Hidden Markov model to follow dynamic and time-sensitive changes in the structure of the relational data and to estimate a number of clusters simultaneously. We show the usefulness of the model through experiments with synthetic and real-world data sets

Automated construction and analysis of political networks via open government and media sources

We present a tool to generate real world political networks from user provided lists of politicians and news sites. Additional output includes visualizations, interactive tools and maps that allow a user to better understand the politicians and their surrounding environments as portrayed by the media. As a case study, we construct a comprehensive list of current Texas politicians, select news sites that convey a spectrum of political viewpoints covering Texas politics, and examine the results. We propose a ”Combined” co-occurrence distance metric to better reflect the relationship between two entities. A topic modeling technique is also proposed as a novel, automated way of labeling communities that exist within a politician’s ”extended” network.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Contributions to the Modelling of Auditory Hallucinations, Social robotics, and Multiagent Systems

165 p.The Thesis covers three diverse lines of work that have been tackled with the central endeavor of modeling and understanding the phenomena under consideration. Firstly, the Thesis works on the problem of finding brain connectivity biomarkers of auditory hallucinations, a rather frequent phenomena that can be related some pathologies, but which is also present in healthy population. We apply machine learning techniques to assess the significance of effective brain connections extracted by either dynamical causal modeling or Granger causality. Secondly, the Thesis deals with the usefulness of social robotics strorytelling as a therapeutic tools for children at risk of exclussion. The Thesis reports on the observations gathered in several therapeutic sessions carried out in Spain and Bulgaria, under the supervision of tutors and caregivers. Thirdly, the Thesis deals with the spatio-temporal dynamic modeling of social agents trying to explain the phenomena of opinion survival of the social minorities. The Thesis proposes a eco-social model endowed with spatial mobility of the agents. Such mobility and the spatial perception of the agents are found to be strong mechanisms explaining opinion propagation and survival

Temporal Networks

A great variety of systems in nature, society and technology -- from the web of sexual contacts to the Internet, from the nervous system to power grids -- can be modeled as graphs of vertices coupled by edges. The network structure, describing how the graph is wired, helps us understand, predict and optimize the behavior of dynamical systems. In many cases, however, the edges are not continuously active. As an example, in networks of communication via email, text messages, or phone calls, edges represent sequences of instantaneous or practically instantaneous contacts. In some cases, edges are active for non-negligible periods of time: e.g., the proximity patterns of inpatients at hospitals can be represented by a graph where an edge between two individuals is on throughout the time they are at the same ward. Like network topology, the temporal structure of edge activations can affect dynamics of systems interacting through the network, from disease contagion on the network of patients to information diffusion over an e-mail network. In this review, we present the emergent field of temporal networks, and discuss methods for analyzing topological and temporal structure and models for elucidating their relation to the behavior of dynamical systems. In the light of traditional network theory, one can see this framework as moving the information of when things happen from the dynamical system on the network, to the network itself. Since fundamental properties, such as the transitivity of edges, do not necessarily hold in temporal networks, many of these methods need to be quite different from those for static networks

Generative Diffusion of Innovations: An Organizational Genetics Approach

Innovation in open ecosystems such as open source software is characterized by generative diffusion, the property of such ecosystems to evolve and change over time through the actions of uncoordinated participants. In this research, we contend that existing models of diffusion are not adequate to capture the multi-faceted nature of generative diffusion. To address this challenge, we use concepts from biological sciences to propose a multi-dimensional perspective to study generative diffusion, and construct three metrics: proliferation,evolvability, and temporality. Further, we use techniques inspired by genetics to measure these constructs in the context of open source software. In this research in progress manuscript, we demonstrate the applicability of our work with one example of an open source software project. This study makes an immense contribution not only to the study of open innovation, but also makes a methodological contribution by introducing the use of evolutionary genetics to study digital artifacts