An application of multiattribute decision analysis to the Space Station Freedom program. Case study: Automation and robotics technology evaluation

The results are described of an application of multiattribute analysis to the evaluation of high leverage prototyping technologies in the automation and robotics (A and R) areas that might contribute to the Space Station (SS) Freedom baseline design. An implication is that high leverage prototyping is beneficial to the SS Freedom Program as a means for transferring technology from the advanced development program to the baseline program. The process also highlights the tradeoffs to be made between subsidizing high value, low risk technology development versus high value, high risk technology developments. Twenty one A and R Technology tasks spanning a diverse array of technical concepts were evaluated using multiattribute decision analysis. Because of large uncertainties associated with characterizing the technologies, the methodology was modified to incorporate uncertainty. Eight attributes affected the rankings: initial cost, operation cost, crew productivity, safety, resource requirements, growth potential, and spinoff potential. The four attributes of initial cost, operations cost, crew productivity, and safety affected the rankings the most

A critical evaluation of deterministic methods in size optimisation of reliable and cost effective standalone Hybrid renewable energy systems

Reliability of a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) strongly depends on various uncertainties affecting the amount of power produced by the system. In the design of systems subject to uncertainties, both deterministic and nondeterministic design approaches can be adopted. In a deterministic design approach, the designer considers the presence of uncertainties and incorporates them indirectly into the design by applying safety factors. It is assumed that, by employing suitable safety factors and considering worst-case-scenarios, reliable systems can be designed. In fact, the multi-objective optimisation problem with two objectives of reliability and cost is reduced to a single-objective optimisation problem with the objective of cost only. In this paper the competence of deterministic design methods in size optimisation of reliable standalone wind-PV-battery, wind-PV-diesel and wind-PV-battery-diesel configurations is examined. For each configuration, first, using different values of safety factors, the optimal size of the system components which minimises the system cost is found deterministically. Then, for each case, using a Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of safety factors on the reliability and the cost are investigated. In performing reliability analysis, several reliability measures, namely, unmet load, blackout durations (total, maximum and average) and mean time between failures are considered. It is shown that the traditional methods of considering the effect of uncertainties in deterministic designs such as design for an autonomy period and employing safety factors have either little or unpredictable impact on the actual reliability of the designed wind-PV-battery configuration. In the case of wind-PV-diesel and wind-PV-battery-diesel configurations it is shown that, while using a high-enough margin of safety in sizing diesel generator leads to reliable systems, the optimum value for this margin of safety leading to a cost-effective system cannot be quantified without employing probabilistic methods of analysis. It is also shown that deterministic cost analysis yields inaccurate results for all of the investigated configurations

A proposed framework for characterising uncertainty and variability in rock mechanics and rock engineering

This thesis develops a novel understanding of the fundamental issues in characterising and propagating unpredictability in rock engineering design. This unpredictability stems from the inherent complexity and heterogeneity of fractured rock masses as engineering media. It establishes the importance of: a) recognising that unpredictability results from epistemic uncertainty (i.e. resulting from a lack of knowledge) and aleatory variability (i.e. due to inherent randomness), and; b) the means by which uncertainty and variability associated with the parameters that characterise fractured rock masses are propagated through the modelling and design process. Through a critical review of the literature, this thesis shows that in geotechnical engineering – rock mechanics and rock engineering in particular – there is a lack of recognition in the existence of epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability, and hence inappropriate design methods are often used. To overcome this, a novel taxonomy is developed and presented that facilitates characterisation of epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability in the context of rock mechanics and rock engineering. Using this taxonomy, a new framework is developed that gives a protocol for correctly propagating uncertainty and variability through engineering calculations. The effectiveness of the taxonomy and the framework are demonstrated through their application to simple challenge problems commonly found in rock engineering. This new taxonomy and framework will provide engineers engaged in preparing rock engineering designs an objective means of characterising unpredictability in parameters commonly used to define properties of fractured rock masses. These new tools will also provide engineers with a means of clearly understanding the true nature of unpredictability inherent in rock mechanics and rock engineering, and thus direct selection of an appropriate unpredictability model to propagate unpredictability faithfully through engineering calculations. Thus, the taxonomy and framework developed in this thesis provide practical tools to improve the safety of rock engineering designs through an improved understanding of the unpredictability concepts.Open Acces

Technology assessment between risk, uncertainty and ignorance

The use of most if not all technologies is accompanied by negative side effects, While we may profit from today’s technologies, it is most often future generations who bear most risks. Risk analysis therefore becomes a delicate issue, because future risks often cannot be assigned a meaningful occurance probability. This paper argues that technology assessement most often deal with uncertainty and ignorance rather than risk when we include future generations into our ethical, political or juridal thinking. This has serious implications as probabilistic decision approaches are not applicable anymore. I contend that a virtue ethical approach in which dianoetic virtues play a central role may supplement a welfare based ethics in order to overcome the difficulties in dealing with uncertainty and ignorance in technology assessement

Multi-level optimisation models for transmission expansion planning under uncertainty

The significant integration of renewable energy sources to electricity grids poses unprecedented challenges to power systems planning. Each of these challenges is implied by a particular circumstance faced by the system planner when devising the expansion plan, which should be tailored to address the needs and objectives of the system under consideration. Within this context, this thesis is dedicated to propose methodologies to address three timely situations that may arise when planning the expansion of the grid. In the first situation, we consider the case in which the system planner must meet established renewable penetration targets while complying with multiple deterministic security criteria. Renewable targets have been largely adopted as an important mechanism to foster the decarbonization of power systems. Hence, we propose a methodology that simultaneously identifies the optimal subset of candidate assets as well as renewable sites to be developed, while introducing the concept of compound GT n-K security criteria. In the second situation, we aim to minimize the regret of the system planner under generation expansion uncertainty. In many cases, e.g. the United Kingdom, the decision on the transmission expansion plan is taken by a market player that does not determine the future generation expansion. Within this context, we propose a 5-level MILP formulation to represent the minimization of the regret of the system planner in light of a set of credible scenarios of generation expansion while enforcing n-1 security criterion. Finally, in the third situation, the objective is to inform the optimal transmission expansion plan under ambiguity in the probability distribution of RES generation output. To do so, we present a methodology capable of determining the transmission plan under deterministic security criterion while accommodating a set of different probability distributions for RES output in order to integrate ambiguity aversion.Open Acces