Optimal management of bio-based energy supply chains under parametric uncertainty through a data-driven decision-support framework

This paper addresses the optimal management of a multi-objective bio-based energy supply chain network subjected to multiple sources of uncertainty. The complexity to obtain an optimal solution using traditional uncertainty management methods dramatically increases with the number of uncertain factors considered. Such a complexity produces that, if tractable, the problem is solved after a large computational effort. Therefore, in this work a data-driven decision-making framework is proposed to address this issue. Such a framework exploits machine learning techniques to efficiently approximate the optimal management decisions considering a set of uncertain parameters that continuously influence the process behavior as an input. A design of computer experiments technique is used in order to combine these parameters and produce a matrix of representative information. These data are used to optimize the deterministic multi-objective bio-based energy network problem through conventional optimization methods, leading to a detailed (but elementary) map of the optimal management decisions based on the uncertain parameters. Afterwards, the detailed data-driven relations are described/identified using an Ordinary Kriging meta-model. The result exhibits a very high accuracy of the parametric meta-models for predicting the optimal decision variables in comparison with the traditional stochastic approach. Besides, and more importantly, a dramatic reduction of the computational effort required to obtain these optimal values in response to the change of the uncertain parameters is achieved. Thus the use of the proposed data-driven decision tool promotes a time-effective optimal decision making, which represents a step forward to use data-driven strategy in large-scale/complex industrial problems.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Robust optimization for energy transactions in multi-microgrids under uncertainty

Independent operation of single microgrids (MGs) faces problems such as low self-consumption of local renewable energy, high operation cost and frequent power exchange with the grid. Interconnecting multiple MGs as a multi-microgrid (MMG) is an effective way to improve operational and economic performance. However, ensuring the optimal collaborative operation of a MMG is a challenging problem, especially under disturbances of intermittent renewable energy. In this paper, the economic and collaborative operation of MMGs is formulated as a unit commitment problem to describe the discrete characteristics of energy transaction combinations among MGs. A two-stage adaptive robust optimization based collaborative operation approach for a residential MMG is constructed to derive the scheduling scheme which minimizes the MMG operating cost under the worst realization of uncertain PV output. Transformed by its KKT optimality conditions, the reformulated model is efficiently solved by a column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) method. Case studies verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and evaluate the benefits of energy transactions in MMGs. The results show that the developed MMG operation approach is able to minimize the daily MMG operating cost while mitigating the disturbances of uncertainty in renewable energy sources. Compared to the non-interactive model, the proposed model can not only reduce the MMG operating cost but also mitigate the frequent energy interaction between the MMG and the grid

Review of trends and targets of complex systems for power system optimization

Optimization systems (OSs) allow operators of electrical power systems (PS) to optimally operate PSs and to also create optimal PS development plans. The inclusion of OSs in the PS is a big trend nowadays, and the demand for PS optimization tools and PS-OSs experts is growing. The aim of this review is to define the current dynamics and trends in PS optimization research and to present several papers that clearly and comprehensively describe PS OSs with characteristics corresponding to the identified current main trends in this research area. The current dynamics and trends of the research area were defined on the basis of the results of an analysis of the database of 255 PS-OS-presenting papers published from December 2015 to July 2019. Eleven main characteristics of the current PS OSs were identified. The results of the statistical analyses give four characteristics of PS OSs which are currently the most frequently presented in research papers: OSs for minimizing the price of electricity/OSs reducing PS operation costs, OSs for optimizing the operation of renewable energy sources, OSs for regulating the power consumption during the optimization process, and OSs for regulating the energy storage systems operation during the optimization process. Finally, individual identified characteristics of the current PS OSs are briefly described. In the analysis, all PS OSs presented in the observed time period were analyzed regardless of the part of the PS for which the operation was optimized by the PS OS, the voltage level of the optimized PS part, or the optimization goal of the PS OS.Web of Science135art. no. 107

Renewable electricity generation and transmission network developments in light of public opposition: Insights from Ireland. ESRI Working Paper No. 653 March 2020

This paper analyses how people’s attitudes towards onshore wind power and overhead transmission lines affect the costoptimal development of electricity generation mixes, under a high renewable energy policy. For that purpose, we use a power systems generation and transmission expansion planning model, combined with information on public attitudes towards energy infrastructure on the island of Ireland. Overall, households have a positive attitude towards onshore wind power but their willingness to accept wind farms near their homes tends to be low. Opposition to overhead transmission lines is even greater. This can lead to a substantial increase in the costs of expanding the power system. In the Irish case, costs escalate by more than 4.3% when public opposition is factored into the constrained optimisation of power generation and grid expansion planning across the island. This is mainly driven by the compounded effects of higher capacity investments in more expensive technologies such as offshore wind and solar photovoltaic to compensate for lower levels of onshore wind generation and grid reinforcements. The results also reveal the effect of public opposition on the value of onshore wind, via shadow prices. The higher the level of public opposition, the higher the shadow value of onshore wind. And, this starkly differs across regions: regions with more wind resource or closest to major demand centres have the highest shadow prices. The shadow costs can guide policy makers when designing incentive mechanisms to garner public support for onshore wind installations