On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference

With the advent of high-performance computing, Bayesian methods are increasingly popular tools for the quantification of uncertainty throughout science and industry. Since these methods impact the making of sometimes critical decisions in increasingly complicated contexts, the sensitivity of their posterior conclusions with respect to the underlying models and prior beliefs is a pressing question for which there currently exist positive and negative results. We report new results suggesting that, although Bayesian methods are robust when the number of possible outcomes is finite or when only a finite number of marginals of the data-generating distribution are unknown, they could be generically brittle when applied to continuous systems (and their discretizations) with finite information on the data-generating distribution. If closeness is defined in terms of the total variation metric or the matching of a finite system of generalized moments, then (1) two practitioners who use arbitrarily close models and observe the same (possibly arbitrarily large amount of) data may reach opposite conclusions; and (2) any given prior and model can be slightly perturbed to achieve any desired posterior conclusions. The mechanism causing brittlenss/robustness suggests that learning and robustness are antagonistic requirements and raises the question of a missing stability condition for using Bayesian Inference in a continuous world under finite information.Comment: 20 pages, 2 figures. To appear in SIAM Review (Research Spotlights). arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1304.677

Nonparametric Conditional Inference for Regression Coefficients with Application to Configural Polysampling

We consider inference procedures, conditional on an observed ancillary statistic, for regression coefficients under a linear regression setup where the unknown error distribution is specified nonparametrically. We establish conditional asymptotic normality of the regression coefficient estimators under regularity conditions, and formally justify the approach of plugging in kernel-type density estimators in conditional inference procedures. Simulation results show that the approach yields accurate conditional coverage probabilities when used for constructing confidence intervals. The plug-in approach can be applied in conjunction with configural polysampling to derive robust conditional estimators adaptive to a confrontation of contrasting scenarios. We demonstrate this by investigating the conditional mean squared error of location estimators under various confrontations in a simulation study, which successfully extends configural polysampling to a nonparametric context

Justifying Inference to the Best Explanation as a Practical Meta-Syllogism on Dialectical Structures

This article discusses how inference to the best explanation (IBE) can be justified as a practical meta-argument. It is, firstly, justified as a *practical* argument insofar as accepting the best explanation as true can be shown to further a specific aim. And because this aim is a discursive one which proponents can rationally pursue in--and relative to--a complex controversy, namely maximising the robustness of one's position, IBE can be conceived, secondly, as a *meta*-argument. My analysis thus bears a certain analogy to Sellars' well-known justification of inductive reasoning (Sellars 1969); it is based on recently developed theories of complex argumentation (Betz 2010, 2011)

RANK: Large-Scale Inference with Graphical Nonlinear Knockoffs

Power and reproducibility are key to enabling refined scientific discoveries in contemporary big data applications with general high-dimensional nonlinear models. In this paper, we provide theoretical foundations on the power and robustness for the model-free knockoffs procedure introduced recently in Cand\`{e}s, Fan, Janson and Lv (2016) in high-dimensional setting when the covariate distribution is characterized by Gaussian graphical model. We establish that under mild regularity conditions, the power of the oracle knockoffs procedure with known covariate distribution in high-dimensional linear models is asymptotically one as sample size goes to infinity. When moving away from the ideal case, we suggest the modified model-free knockoffs method called graphical nonlinear knockoffs (RANK) to accommodate the unknown covariate distribution. We provide theoretical justifications on the robustness of our modified procedure by showing that the false discovery rate (FDR) is asymptotically controlled at the target level and the power is asymptotically one with the estimated covariate distribution. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first formal theoretical result on the power for the knockoffs procedure. Simulation results demonstrate that compared to existing approaches, our method performs competitively in both FDR control and power. A real data set is analyzed to further assess the performance of the suggested knockoffs procedure.Comment: 37 pages, 6 tables, 9 pages supplementary materia