Probabilistic Modeling and Inference for Obfuscated Network Attack Sequences

Prevalent computing devices with networking capabilities have become critical network infrastructure for government, industry, academia and every-day life. As their value rises, the motivation driving network attacks on this infrastructure has shifted from the pursuit of notoriety to the pursuit of profit or political gains, leading to network attack on various scales. Facing diverse network attack strategies and overwhelming alters, much work has been devoted to correlate observed malicious events to pre-defined scenarios, attempting to deduce the attack plans based on expert models of how network attacks may transpire. We started the exploration of characterizing network attacks by investigating how temporal and spatial features of attack sequence can be used to describe different types of attack sources in real data set. Attack sequence models were built from real data set to describe different attack strategies. Based on the probabilistic attack sequence model, attack predictions were made to actively predict next possible actions. Experiments through attack predictions have revealed that sophisticated attackers can employ a number of obfuscation techniques to confuse the alert correlation engine or classifier. Unfortunately, most exiting work treats attack obfuscations by developing ad-hoc fixes to specific obfuscation technique. To this end, we developed an attack modeling framework that enables a systematical analysis of obfuscations. The proposed framework represents network attack strategies as general finite order Markov models and integrates it with different attack obfuscation models to form probabilistic graphical model models. A set of algorithms is developed to inference the network attack strategies given the models and the observed sequences, which are likely to be obfuscated. The algorithms enable an efficient analysis of the impact of different obfuscation techniques and attack strategies, by determining the expected classification accuracy of the obfuscated sequences. The algorithms are developed by integrating the recursion concept in dynamic programming and the Monte-Carlo method. The primary contributions of this work include the development of the formal framework and the algorithms to evaluate the impact of attack obfuscations. Several knowledge-driven attack obfuscation models are developed and analyzed to demonstrate the impact of different types of commonly used obfuscation techniques. The framework and algorithms developed in this work can also be applied to other contexts beyond network security. Any behavior sequences that might suffer from noise and require matching to pre-defined models can use this work to recover the most likely original sequence or evaluate quantitatively the expected classification accuracy one can achieve to separate the sequences

Hidden Markov Model Based Intrusion Alert Prediction

Intrusion detection is only a starting step in securing IT infrastructure. Prediction of intrusions is the next step to provide an active defense against incoming attacks. Most of the existing intrusion prediction methods mainly focus on prediction of either intrusion type or intrusion category. Also, most of them are built based on domain knowledge and specific scenario knowledge. This thesis proposes an alert prediction framework which provides more detailed information than just the intrusion type or category to initiate possible defensive measures. The proposed algorithm is based on hidden Markov model and it does not depend on specific domain knowledge. Instead, it depends on a training process. Hence the proposed algorithm is adaptable to different conditions. Also, it is based on prediction of the next alert cluster, which contains source IP address, destination IP range, alert type and alert category. Hence, prediction of next alert cluster provides more information about future strategies of the attacker. Experiments were conducted using a public data set generated over 2500 alert predictions. Proposed alert prediction framework achieved accuracy of 81% and 77% for single step and five step predictions respectively for prediction of the next alert cluster. It also achieved an accuracy of prediction of 95% and 92% for single step and five step predictions respectively for prediction of the next alert category. The proposed methods achieved 5% prediction accuracy improvement for alert category over variable length Markov based alert prediction method, while providing more information for a possible defense

Enhanced Prediction of Network Attacks Using Incomplete Data

For years, intrusion detection has been considered a key component of many organizations’ network defense capabilities. Although a number of approaches to intrusion detection have been tried, few have been capable of providing security personnel responsible for the protection of a network with sufficient information to make adjustments and respond to attacks in real-time. Because intrusion detection systems rarely have complete information, false negatives and false positives are extremely common, and thus valuable resources are wasted responding to irrelevant events. In order to provide better actionable information for security personnel, a mechanism for quantifying the confidence level in predictions is needed. This work presents an approach which seeks to combine a primary prediction model with a novel secondary confidence level model which provides a measurement of the confidence in a given attack prediction being made. The ability to accurately identify an attack and quantify the confidence level in the prediction could serve as the basis for a new generation of intrusion detection devices, devices that provide earlier and better alerts for administrators and allow more proactive response to events as they are occurring

A two-layer dimension reduction and two-tier classification model for anomaly-based intrusion detection in IoT backbone networks

With increasing reliance on Internet of Things (IoT) devices and services, the capability to detect intrusions and malicious activities within IoT networks is critical for resilience of the network infrastructure. In this paper, we present a novel model for intrusion detection based on two-layer dimension reduction and two-tier classification module, designed to detect malicious activities such as User to Root (U2R) and Remote to Local (R2L) attacks. The proposed model is using component analysis and linear discriminate analysis of dimension reduction module to spate the high dimensional dataset to a lower one with lesser features. We then apply a two-tier classification module utilizing Naïve Bayes and Certainty Factor version of K-Nearest Neighbor to identify suspicious behaviors. The experiment results using NSL-KDD dataset shows that our model outperforms previous models designed to detect U2R and R2L attacks

Advanced Topics in Systems Safety and Security

This book presents valuable research results in the challenging field of systems (cyber)security. It is a reprint of the Information (MDPI, Basel) - Special Issue (SI) on Advanced Topics in Systems Safety and Security. The competitive review process of MDPI journals guarantees the quality of the presented concepts and results. The SI comprises high-quality papers focused on cutting-edge research topics in cybersecurity of computer networks and industrial control systems. The contributions presented in this book are mainly the extended versions of selected papers presented at the 7th and the 8th editions of the International Workshop on Systems Safety and Security—IWSSS. These two editions took place in Romania in 2019 and respectively in 2020. In addition to the selected papers from IWSSS, the special issue includes other valuable and relevant contributions. The papers included in this reprint discuss various subjects ranging from cyberattack or criminal activities detection, evaluation of the attacker skills, modeling of the cyber-attacks, and mobile application security evaluation. Given this diversity of topics and the scientific level of papers, we consider this book a valuable reference for researchers in the security and safety of systems

Reduction of False Positives in Intrusion Detection Based on Extreme Learning Machine with Situation Awareness

Protecting computer networks from intrusions is more important than ever for our privacy, economy, and national security. Seemingly a month does not pass without news of a major data breach involving sensitive personal identity, financial, medical, trade secret, or national security data. Democratic processes can now be potentially compromised through breaches of electronic voting systems. As ever more devices, including medical machines, automobiles, and control systems for critical infrastructure are increasingly networked, human life is also more at risk from cyber-attacks. Research into Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) began several decades ago and IDSs are still a mainstay of computer and network protection and continue to evolve. However, detecting previously unseen, or zero-day, threats is still an elusive goal. Many commercial IDS deployments still use misuse detection based on known threat signatures. Systems utilizing anomaly detection have shown great promise to detect previously unseen threats in academic research. But their success has been limited in large part due to the excessive number of false positives that they produce. This research demonstrates that false positives can be better minimized, while maintaining detection accuracy, by combining Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Hidden Markov Models (HMM) as classifiers within the context of a situation awareness framework. This research was performed using the University of New South Wales - Network Based 2015 (UNSW-NB15) data set which is more representative of contemporary cyber-attack and normal network traffic than older data sets typically used in IDS research. It is shown that this approach provides better results than either HMM or ELM alone and with a lower False Positive Rate (FPR) than other comparable approaches that also used the UNSW-NB15 data set