4,888 research outputs found

    EU-India free trade agreement : a quantitative assessment

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    This report analyses the effects of a regional trade agreement (FTA) between the EU and India, for which negotiations are underway. The study starts with abrief overview of the key insights from the existing literature on FTAs and their relationship with multilateral negotiations. The remainder of the study is devoted to analysing the impact of tariff slashes under an FTA on merchandise trade between the EU and India. Of particular interest are the implications for agricultural markets, given the tension between agricultural liberalisation and India's policy goals relating to self-sufficiency in food grains and poverty reduction. The analysis employs GTAP, a global general equilibrium model using a recent database which has 2004 as its reference year. The results suggest that India's interests in a regional trade agreement with the EU are downplayed by the fact that India's economy is not well integrated in global markets. Impacts on the EU are minor and further reduced if a Doha agreement is in place when the FTA is implemented. Results indicate the rationale for a strongly asymmetric arrangement: it would be in the interest of both partners if the EU provides large concessions to India for market access, while India maintains the bulk of current border protection. An EU - India FTA delivers little scope for achieving efficiency gains via adjustments to the pattern of international specialisation. An EU - India agreement on merchandise trade is unlikely to embody substantial preferential treatment with regard to market access. Probably, India can find more suitable FTA partners. Agriculture is a key sector for India in the consideration of equity and growth purposes of a FTA with EU

    India and the multilateral trading system after Seattle - toward a proactive role

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    The authors argue that India should engage more actively in the multilateral trading system for four reasons: First, such engagement could facilitate domestic reform, and improve access to export markets. If the government could show that domestic reform would pay off with increased access to markets abroad, those who gain from such access - whether they export textiles, software, professional services, or other products - could represent a countervailing voice to reform's opponents. In turn, the need for this external payoff to secure domestic reform makes India a credible bargainer, which could induce trading partners, to open their markets to India. Second, external commitments can foster good domestic policies, by providing guarantees against the reversal of current policies, or lending credibility to promises of future reform. Such pre-commitments could help strike a balance between the reluctance to unleash competition immediately, and the desire not to be held perpetual hostage to vested interests, or weak domestic industries. Third, engagement can help enforce India's market access rights. If other countries do not eliminate quotas on textiles, and clothing as scheduled, India can credibly threaten to withdraw its obligations under the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs). Fourth, multilateral tariff reduction could reduce the disadvantage (to India) of not being part of regional agreements. The value of multilateral engagement might be limited, if the prospects for securing increased market access are dim, as the failed Seattle negotiations might appear to suggest. India must credibly test negotiating pessimism by showing its willingness to open its markets in return for improved access to foreign markets. Success is not certain, but India's chances are improved if aligns itself with countries pressing for sound policies of open trade.Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Rules of Origin,ICT Policy and Strategies,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Trade and Regional Integration,ICT Policy and Strategies

    Poverty and Human Development in India: Getting Priorities Right

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    human development, poverty, empowerment

    Changing dimensions of single European market : implications for the non-member countries : a case study on India's textile and clothing exports

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    The implications of the single European market on India's exports of textile and clothing industries to the EU can be summarised in the following four statements: 1. The trade creation effect has been witnessed for many of India’s textile and clothing exports. It is the consumption effects, rather than the efficiency related effects, that stimulated the trade creation effect for India's exports to the EU. The benefits of the trade creation for India's textile exports are absolute as India continued to maintain its role as a leading textile exporting nation to the EU. Since India's textile exporters did not witness any intense competition from the geographically adjacent non-member countries, or from the distant non-member countries, the Indian textile exporters continued to reap the benefits of the trade creation effect in the single European market. Even the leading distant non-member countries, which are traditional exporters like China, did not pose greater competition to India's textile exports to the EU. 2. There has been a trade diversion effect in selected product categories. This is particularly true in the case of garment exports. The arrival of the imports from Central and East European countries constituted direct competition to India's exports to the EU. There has also been an intense competition among the garment exporting countries. This is particularly true in the case of the geographically adjacent non-member countries. These countries exploit the maximum benefits offered to them by the EU's OPT with these countries. This is facilitated by the member countries' preference to keep their textile industries at home. 3. There has not been any trade suppression effect witnessed in the EU for India's textile and clothing exports. Though the traditional arguments of customs union theory expected the trade suppression effect to be witnessed in the enlarged market, this has not been witnessed in the European textile and clothing industries. Two reasons could explain the lack of trade suppression effect in the EU. The member countries' success in the OPT dissuade them from resorting to the domestic production of the same goods, which could be successfully produced and imported from the geographically adjacent non-member countries. Though there have been protectionist tendencies in many of the member countries to insulate their textile and clothing industries against low-cost imports, they have not resulted in the trade suppression effect in the EU. Even though the member countries witness a decline in their textile and clothing industries consistently, there has not been any effort to replace low-cost imports by domestic production. This is mainly because of the liberal trade regime, imposed on the developed member countries under the multilateral trade negotiations, which make trade in this industry more competitive. 4. However there has been the trade contraction effect witnessed in one particular product category. The trade in silk woven fabrics witnessed an overall fall in its trade both within and without the EU. But this could not be attributed to the formation of the single European market. The developed member countries' changing fabric preference from silk towards artificial fabric could be attributed to the fall in the EU's overall trade in this product category. Nevertheless the EU's trade contraction effect did not have any adverse effect on India's exports because India is the leading exporter in this product category (accounting for about 46 per cent of extra-EU imports in 1999)

    Growth Prospects in China and India Compared

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    This paper compares the growth prospects of China and India through a growth accounting analysis. Consistent time series for capital stock and employment are constructed using available survey data, and recent revisions to the national accounts for both countries are incorporated. The results allow for a discussion of the sources of growth in both countries, and a consideration of each country's rate of potential growth in light of the outlook for national savings, as demographic shifts occur in each country.Growth accounting; potential growth; capital measurement; demographics; China; India

    India: a Case of Fragile Wireless Service and Technology Adoption?

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    Wireless penetration and the Indian economy have grown significantly over the past few years, but how robust and sustainable is the adoption of wireless services and products? Several papers have discussed India as a wireless service and product market, and sometimes tried to assess quantitative attributes thereof. The present paper aims instead at looking, from a management point of view, at the unique underlying evolution processes, bottlenecks and risks. On specific facets, a comparison is given to adoption indicators in other key markets such as China.For example, just to illustrate highlights of these unique attributes , it is indeed surprising that such a major economy with its very large population has not yet achieved the wireless service usage and mobile terminal penetration ratios of neither an early European adopter ,nor of a recent large scale adopter like China or Russia . India has also been characterised by a surprising regulatory development process quite different from many other contexts, both in terms of its both centralised and regional structure, of very low tariffs providing almost no ROI to investors in a stable situation, and of absence of neutrality across communications technologies. At the same time, a very large fraction of the population has not , for affordability and regional coverage reasons, been able to get the access opportunities of more developed regions , leading to a distribution unbalance which is also a significant opportunity .Also , the wireless service and product adoption pattern in India , specific to communicating services , has so far been in rather sharp contrast with the widely known software and outsourcing services industry evolutions in that country .Therefore it is important to compare the most relevant known wireless service and product adoption theories, to establish from facts whether they apply in the Indian context, and, if not, suggest new or mixed theories able to explain all such facts and cast some light into its likely future structural evolution. It is of high relevance in management to validate if indeed established models apply or not in a significant case like India, just as it is also of high relevance for the main stakeholders to identify methodology able to support their analyses.The paper first provides background information on wireless, fixed, and other operators, on wireless penetration, on telecommunications infrastructure and investments, and on Indian human capital. Thereafter is analyzed in detail the relevance, or not, of five traditional technology adoption models across the Indian user base: the absorption business model, the perceived benefits business model, consumer attitudes, the globalisation business model, and finally the brand management business model. These first analyses are followed by the identification and detailed analysis of five other business models or structural processes, some rather unique to India: the two-tier migration model, large scale imported adoption without a telecommunications infrastructure & terminals industry, unstable adoption with lack of consistent public policies, knowledge sharing and productivity enhancement adoption model, and finally late foreign capital investments into a large emerging market.From the comparison of facts and background data , with these ten wireless service and product adoption models , the paper establishes which are not relevant, and which are too some degree . Furthermore the relevant business models are shown to share, further attributes of sustainability (or not) and dynamic behaviour. This allows concluding that India has had an overall quite fragile adoption and deployment path with growing tensions such as coverage, quality of service and affordability disparities. The model comparison also allows to diagnose the key three structural measures needed to reach a sustainable equilibrium from the business, economic and social points of view.India;Mobile communications;Adoption;Business models;Economic development;Infrastructure;Manufacturing;Mobile terminals;Wireless

    The "Gender Gap" in India and China: A Comparative Study

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    This paper provides an in-depth comparison of economic and political decisions as they relate to women of two of the biggest and oldest societies in the world - India and China. Based on long experience with quantitative data, the author also raises questions about how much such data obscures the experience of women.Cet article fait une comparaison detaillee entre les decisons d'ordre economique et les decision d'ordre politique et fait leur lien entre elles et les femmes des deux plus grandes et plus anciennes societes au monde: l'Inde et la Chine. En se basant sur une longue experience et des donnees quantitatives, l'auteure souleve des questions sur la facon dont ces donnees obscurent l'experience des femmes
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