Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting

In 20th century, many countries have liberalized their electricity market. This power markets liberalization has directed generation companies as well as wholesale buyers to undertake a greater intense risk exposure compared to the old centralized framework. In this framework, electricity price prediction has become crucial for any market player in their decision‐making process as well as strategic planning. In this study, a prototype asymmetric‐based neuro‐fuzzy network (AGFINN) architecture has been implemented for short‐term electricity prices forecasting for ISO New England market. AGFINN framework has been designed through two different defuzzification schemes. Fuzzy clustering has been explored as an initial step for defining the fuzzy rules while an asymmetric Gaussian membership function has been utilized in the fuzzification part of the model. Results related to the minimum and maximum electricity prices for ISO New England, emphasize the superiority of the proposed model over well‐established learning‐based models

Game Theoretical Analysis of a Multi-MNO MVNO Business Model in 5G Networks

This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (MCIU/AEI) and the European Union (FEDER/UE) through Grant PGC2018-094151-B-I00 and partially supported by Politecnica Salesiana University (Salesian Polytechnic University) in Ecuador through a Ph.D. scholarship granted to the first author.Sacoto Cabrera, EJ.; Guijarro, L.; Maillé, P. (2020). Game Theoretical Analysis of a Multi-MNO MVNO Business Model in 5G Networks. Electronics. 9(6):1-26. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics9060933S12696Gruber, H. (2001). Competition and innovation. Information Economics and Policy, 13(1), 19-34. doi:10.1016/s0167-6245(00)00028-7Berne, M., Vialle, P., & Whalley, J. (2019). An analysis of the disruptive impact of the entry of Free Mobile into the French mobile telecommunications market. Telecommunications Policy, 43(3), 262-277. doi:10.1016/j.telpol.2018.07.007Nakao, A., Du, P., Kiriha, Y., Granelli, F., Gebremariam, A. A., Taleb, T., & Bagaa, M. (2017). 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Energy Efficient Hybrid Routing Protocol Based on the Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm and Ant Colony Optimisation for WSNs

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are a particular type of distributed self-managed network with limited energy supply and communication ability. The most significant challenge of a routing protocol is the energy consumption and the extension of the network lifetime. Many energy-efficient routing algorithms were inspired by the development of Ant Colony Optimisation (ACO). However, due to the inborn defects, ACO-based routing algorithms have a slow convergence behaviour and are prone to premature, stagnation phenomenon, which hinders further route discovery, especially in a large-scale network. This paper proposes a hybrid routing algorithm by combining the Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm (AFSA) and ACO to address these issues. We utilise AFSA to perform the initial route discovery in order to find feasible routes quickly. In the route discovery algorithm, we present a hybrid algorithm by combining the crowd factor in AFSA and the pseudo-random route select strategy in ACO. Furthermore, this paper presents an improved pheromone update method by considering energy levels and path length. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm avoids the routing algorithm falling into local optimisation and stagnation, whilst speeding up the routing convergence, which is more prominent in a large-scale network. Furthermore, simulation evaluation reports that the proposed algorithm exhibits a significant improvement in terms of network lifetime

Transfer Learning by Similarity Centred Architecture Evolution for Multiple Residential Load Forecasting

The development from traditional low voltage grids to smart systems has become extensive and adopted worldwide. Expanding the demand response program to cover the residential sector raises a wide range of challenges. Short term load forecasting for residential consumers in a neighbourhood could lead to a better understanding of low voltage consumption behaviour. Nevertheless, users with similar characteristics can present diversity in consumption patterns. Consequently, transfer learning methods have become a useful tool to tackle differences among residential time series. This paper proposes a method combining evolutionary algorithms for neural architecture search with transfer learning to perform short term load forecasting in a neighbourhood with multiple household load consumption. The approach centres its efforts on neural architecture search using evolutionary algorithms. The neural architecture evolution process retains the patterns of the centre-most house, and later the architecture weights are adjusted for each house in a multihouse set from a neighbourhood. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to ensure model performance. Experimental results on a large dataset containing hourly load consumption for ten houses in London, Ontario showed that the performance of the proposed approach performs better than the compared techniques. Moreover, the proposed method presents the average accuracy performance of 3.17 points higher than the state-of-the-art LSTM one shot method

State-of-the-art integration of decentralized energy management systems into the German smart meter gateway infrastructure

The German Smart Meter Gateway (SMGW) infrastructure enables digital access to metering data and distributed energy resources by external parties. There are, however, various restrictions in order to guarantee the privacy of consumers, and strong security requirements. Furthermore, in the current state of development, there are still several challenges to overcome in order to implement demand side management (DSM) measures. In this paper, we present a prototype enabling DSM measures within the SMGW infrastructure, using the smart grid traffic light concept. The prototype implements an automated decentralized energy management system (EMS) that optimally controls an electric vehicle charging station. In the development of this prototype, we did not only evaluate five of the seven available SMGW devices, but also push the limits of the infrastructure itself. The experiments demonstrated the successful implementation of the intended DSM measure by the EMS. Even though there are technical guidelines standardizing the functionality of SMGWs, our evaluation shows that there are substantial differences between the individual SMGW devices

Computational Analysis of Antipode Algorithms for the Output Feedback Hopf Algebra

The feedback interconnection of two systems written in terms of Chen-Fliess series can be described explicitly in terms of the antipode of the output feedback Hopf algebra. At present, there are three known computational approaches to calculating this antipode: the left coproduct method, the right coproduct method, and the derivation method. Each of these algorithms is defined recursively, and thus becomes computationally expensive quite quickly. This motivates the need for a more complete understanding of the algorithmic complexity of these methods, as well as the development of new approaches for determining the Hopf algebra antipode. The main goals of this thesis are to create an implementation in code of the derivation method and compare the computational performance against existing code for the two coproduct methods in Mathematica. Both temporal and spatial complexity are examined empirically, and the main conclusion is that the derivation method yields the best performance

Path loss model for outdoor parking environments at 28 GHz and 38 GHz for 5G wireless networks

It has been widely speculated that the performance of the next generation Internet of Things (IoT) based wireless network should meet a transmission speed on the order of 1000 times more than current wireless networks; energy consumption on the order of 10 times less and access delay of less than 1 ns that will be provided by future 5G systems. To increase the current mobile broadband capacity in future 5G systems, the millimeter wave (mmWave) band will be used with huge amounts of bandwidth available in this band. Hence, to support this wider bandwith at the mmWave band, new radio access technology (RAT) should be provided for 5G systems. The new RAT with symmetry design for downlink and uplink should support different scenarios such as device to device (D2D) and multi-hop communications. This paper presents the path loss models in parking lot environment which represents the multi-end users for future 5G applications. To completely assess the typical performance of 5G wireless network systems across these different frequency bands, it is necessary to develop path loss (PL) models across these wide frequency ranges. The short wavelength of the highest frequency bands provides many scatterings from different objects. Cars and other objects are some examples of scatterings, which represent a critical issue at millimeter-wave bands. This paper presents the large-scale propagation characteristics for millimeter-wave in a parking lot environment. A new physical-based path loss model for parking lots is proposed. The path loss was investigated based on different models. The measurement was conducted at 28 GHz and 38 GHz frequencies for different scenarios. Results showed that the path loss exponent values were approximately identical at 28 GHz and 38 GHz for different scenarios of parking lots. It was found that the proposed compensation factor varied between 10.6 dB and 23.1 dB and between 13.1 and 19.1 in 28 GHz and 38 GHz, respectively. The proposed path loss models showed that more compensation factors are required for more scattering objects, especially at 28 GHz

Domain Generalization in Machine Learning Models for Wireless Communications: Concepts, State-of-the-Art, and Open Issues

Data-driven machine learning (ML) is promoted as one potential technology to be used in next-generations wireless systems. This led to a large body of research work that applies ML techniques to solve problems in different layers of the wireless transmission link. However, most of these applications rely on supervised learning which assumes that the source (training) and target (test) data are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d). This assumption is often violated in the real world due to domain or distribution shifts between the source and the target data. Thus, it is important to ensure that these algorithms generalize to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this context, domain generalization (DG) tackles the OOD-related issues by learning models on different and distinct source domains/datasets with generalization capabilities to unseen new domains without additional finetuning. Motivated by the importance of DG requirements for wireless applications, we present a comprehensive overview of the recent developments in DG and the different sources of domain shift. We also summarize the existing DG methods and review their applications in selected wireless communication problems, and conclude with insights and open questions

A Comparison of Univariate and Multivariate Forecasting Models Predicting Emergency Department Patient Arrivals during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the existing concern about the uncertainty surrounding patient arrival and the overutilization of resources in emergency departments (EDs). The prediction of variations in patient arrivals is vital for managing limited healthcare resources and facilitating data-driven resource planning. The objective of this study was to forecast ED patient arrivals during a pandemic over different time horizons. A secondary objective was to compare the performance of different forecasting models in predicting ED patient arrivals. We included all ED patient encounters at an urban teaching hospital between January 2019 and December 2020. We divided the data into training and testing datasets and applied univariate and multivariable forecasting models to predict daily ED visits. The influence of COVID-19 lockdown and climatic factors were included in the multivariable models. The model evaluation consisted of the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) over different forecasting horizons. Our exploratory analysis illustrated that monthly and weekly patterns impact daily demand for care. The Holt–Winters approach outperformed all other univariate and multivariable forecasting models for short-term predictions, while the Long Short-Term Memory approach performed best in extended predictions. The developed forecasting models are able to accurately predict ED patient arrivals and peaks during a surge when tested on two years of data from a high-volume urban ED. These short-and long-term prediction models can potentially enhance ED and hospital resource planning