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    Automatic Recognition, Segmentation, and Sex Assignment of Nocturnal Asthmatic Coughs and Cough Epochs in Smartphone Audio Recordings: Observational Field Study

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    Background: Asthma is one of the most prevalent chronic respiratory diseases. Despite increased investment in treatment, little progress has been made in the early recognition and treatment of asthma exacerbations over the last decade. Nocturnal cough monitoring may provide an opportunity to identify patients at risk for imminent exacerbations. Recently developed approaches enable smartphone-based cough monitoring. These approaches, however, have not undergone longitudinal overnight testing nor have they been specifically evaluated in the context of asthma. Also, the problem of distinguishing partner coughs from patient coughs when two or more people are sleeping in the same room using contact-free audio recordings remains unsolved. Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the automatic recognition and segmentation of nocturnal asthmatic coughs and cough epochs in smartphone-based audio recordings that were collected in the field. We also aimed to distinguish partner coughs from patient coughs in contact-free audio recordings by classifying coughs based on sex. Methods: We used a convolutional neural network model that we had developed in previous work for automated cough recognition. We further used techniques (such as ensemble learning, minibatch balancing, and thresholding) to address the imbalance in the data set. We evaluated the classifier in a classification task and a segmentation task. The cough-recognition classifier served as the basis for the cough-segmentation classifier from continuous audio recordings. We compared automated cough and cough-epoch counts to human-annotated cough and cough-epoch counts. We employed Gaussian mixture models to build a classifier for cough and cough-epoch signals based on sex. Results: We recorded audio data from 94 adults with asthma (overall: mean 43 years; SD 16 years; female: 54/94, 57%; male 40/94, 43%). Audio data were recorded by each participant in their everyday environment using a smartphone placed next to their bed; recordings were made over a period of 28 nights. Out of 704,697 sounds, we identified 30,304 sounds as coughs. A total of 26,166 coughs occurred without a 2-second pause between coughs, yielding 8238 cough epochs. The ensemble classifier performed well with a Matthews correlation coefficient of 92% in a pure classification task and achieved comparable cough counts to that of human annotators in the segmentation of coughing. The count difference between automated and human-annotated coughs was a mean โ€“0.1 (95% CI โ€“12.11, 11.91) coughs. The count difference between automated and human-annotated cough epochs was a mean 0.24 (95% CI โ€“3.67, 4.15) cough epochs. The Gaussian mixture model cough epochโ€“based sex classification performed best yielding an accuracy of 83%. Conclusions: Our study showed longitudinal nocturnal cough and cough-epoch recognition from nightly recorded smartphone-based audio from adults with asthma. The model distinguishes partner cough from patient cough in contact-free recordings by identifying cough and cough-epoch signals that correspond to the sex of the patient. This research represents a step towards enabling passive and scalable cough monitoring for adults with asthma

    ๋งˆ๋ฅด์ฝ”ํ”„ ๋žœ๋ค ํ•„๋“œ ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•œ 2๊ฐœ ์ง‘๋‹จ์˜ ํ˜ผํ•ฉ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„ ๋ชจํ˜• ์ถ”์ • ๋ฐ ์ ์šฉ

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    ํ•™์œ„๋…ผ๋ฌธ(๋ฐ•์‚ฌ) -- ์„œ์šธ๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต๋Œ€ํ•™์› : ์ž์—ฐ๊ณผํ•™๋Œ€ํ•™ ํ˜‘๋™๊ณผ์ • ์ƒ๋ฌผ์ •๋ณดํ•™์ „๊ณต, 2022. 8. ์›์„ฑํ˜ธ.Background Large datasets with a huge number of variables or subjects, such as multi-omics data, have been widely generated recently. Many of these datasets are mixed type including both numeric and categorical variables, which makes their analyses difficult. In some studies, the networks underlying the large dataset may be of interest. There have been several methods that are suggested for the inference of the networks, but most of them can be used only for a single type of data or single class cases. Objective The objective of the study is to develop and propose a new method, named fused MGM (FMGM), that infers network structures underlying mixed data in 2 groups, with assumptions that both the networks and the differences are sparse. Also, statistical analyses including the proposed method were conducted to find biological markers of the atopic dermatitis (AD) and underlying network structures from multi-omics data of 6-month-old infants. Methods For FMGM, the statistical models of the networks are based on pairwise Markov random field model, and the penalty functions implement the main assumption that the networks in 2 groups and their differences are sparse. Fast proximal gradient method (PGM) was used for the optimization of the target function. The extension of FMGM that allows the inclusion of prior knowledges, named prior-induced FMGM (piFMGM), was also developed. The performance of the method was measured with synthetic datasets that simulate power-law network structures. Also, the multi-omics profiles of 6-month-old infants were analyzed. The profiles include host gene transcriptome (N=199), intestinal microbial compositions (N=197), and predicted intestinal microbial functions (N=98; 84 in common). For the analysis, differential analysis with limma and network inference with FMGM were applied. Results From the analysis of simulated 2-class datasets, generated from simulated scale-free networks, FMGM showed superior performances especially in terms of F1-scores compared to the previous method inferring the networks one by one (0.392 & 0.546). FMGM performed better not only in inferring the differences (0.217 & 0.410), but also in inferring the networks (0.492 & 0.572). Utilizing prior information with piFMGM obtained slightly better F1-scores from the inference of networks (0.572 & 0.589), and from the inference of the difference (0.410 & 0.423). As a result, the overall performance showed slight improvement (0.546 & 0.562). From the inference of networks from 6-month-old infantsโ€™ AD data, 10 pairs of variables were shown to have different correlations by disease statuses, including host expression of LINC01036 and MIR4788 and abundance of microbial genes related to carotenoid biosynthesis and RNA degradation. Conclusions The proposed method, FMGM inferred the network structures in 2 classes better than the previous method. Inclusion of prior information in piFMGM may be useful in more accurate inference of networks, but since the change was subtle, additional studies may be conducted to improve it. Network inference revealed several markers of AD such as microbial genes related to carotenoid biosynthesis and RNA degradation, suggesting a number of possible underlying metabolisms related to AD such as oxidative stress and microbial RNA balance.์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋‹ค์ค‘ ์˜ค๋ฏน์Šค ์ž๋ฃŒ์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด ๋‹ค์ˆ˜์˜ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ํ˜น์€ ๊ด€์ฐฐ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•˜๋Š” ๋Œ€์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ์ž๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ๊ด‘๋ฒ”์œ„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์—ฐ์†ํ˜• ๋ฐ ์ด์‚ฐํ˜• ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋ชจ๋‘ ํฌํ•จํ•˜๋Š” ํ˜ผํ•ฉํ˜• ์ž๋ฃŒ์ธ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์ž๋ฃŒ์˜ ํ†ต๊ณ„์  ๋ถ„์„์„ ์–ด๋ ต๊ฒŒ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ ๊ธฐ์ € ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ์ถ”๋ก ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ๊ทธ๊ฐ„ ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ํ†ต๊ณ„์  ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋“ค์ด ์ œ์‹œ๋˜์–ด ์™”์œผ๋‚˜, ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ์œ ํ˜•์ด ๋‹จ์ผํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ง‘๋‹จ์ด ํ•˜๋‚˜์ธ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋งŒ ์ ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋ชฉ์  ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” 2๊ฐœ ์ง‘๋‹จ์˜ ํ˜ผํ•ฉํ˜• ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ธฐ์ € ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ๋ฅผ ์ถ”๋ก ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ธ fused MGM (FMGM)์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ณ  ์ œ์‹œํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ์ž์ฒด์— ๋”ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ทธ ์ฐจ์ด ์—ญ์‹œ ์ „์ฒด ์ž๋ฃŒ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ํฌ๋ฐ•ํ•œ ๋ฐ€๋„๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง์„ ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ, 6๊ฐœ์›” ์•„๋™์˜ ๋‹ค์ค‘ ์˜ค๋ฏน์Šค ์ž๋ฃŒ์— ์ด ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ํ†ต๊ณ„์  ๋ถ„์„ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ, ์•„ํ† ํ”ผ์„ฑ ํ”ผ๋ถ€์—ผ๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์  ๋งˆ์ปค ๋ฐ ๊ธฐ์ € ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์•„๋‚ด๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ• FMGM์€ ์Œ๋ณ„ ๋งˆ๋ฅด์ฝ”ํ”„ ๋žœ๋ค ํ•„๋“œ์— ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ํ•œ ํ†ต๊ณ„์  ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๋ฒŒ์  ํ•จ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ๋ฐ ์ฐจ์ด์˜ ํฌ๋ฐ•ํ•จ์„ ์œ ๋„ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ชฉ์ ํ•จ์ˆ˜์˜ ์ตœ์ ํ™”์—๋Š” ๊ณ ์† ๊ทผ์œ„ ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ๋ฒ•์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ FMGM์˜ ์ถ”๋ก ์— ์‚ฌ์ „ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋„์ž…ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ์ „ ์ •๋ณด ์œ ๋„ FMGM (piFMGM) ์—ญ์‹œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ถ”๋ก  ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์˜ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์€ ์—ญ๋ฒ•์น™ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ํ•œ ํ•ฉ์„ฑ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ธก์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. 6๊ฐœ์›” ์•„๋™์˜ ๋‹ค์ค‘ ์˜ค๋ฏน์Šค ์ •๋ณด ์—ญ์‹œ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์˜ค๋ฏน์Šค ์ •๋ณด์—๋Š” ์ˆ™์ฃผ ์œ ์ „์ž ์ „์‚ฌ์ฒด (N=199), ์žฅ๋‚ด ๋ฏธ์ƒ๋ฌผ์ฒด ๊ตฌ์„ฑ (N=197) ๋ฐ ์žฅ๋‚ด ๋ฏธ์ƒ๋ฌผ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ ์ •๋ณด (N=98)๊ฐ€ ํฌํ•จ๋œ๋‹ค (๊ณตํ†ต ํ‘œ๋ณธ ์ˆ˜ 84). ๋ถ„์„์—๋Š” ์„ ํ˜• ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ์ฐจ์ด ๋ถ„์„๊ณผ FMGM์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ์ถ”๋ก ์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ํ•œ ๋ฌด์ฒ™๋„ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2๊ฐœ ์ง‘๋‹จ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ƒ์„ฑํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ถ„์„ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๊ฐœ๋ณ„ ์ง‘๋‹จ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ๋ฅผ ์ถ”๋ก ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์™€ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜์—ฌ FMGM์ด ๋” ๋†’์€ F1 ์ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด์–ด ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์ด ๋” ์šฐ์ˆ˜ํ•จ์„ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค (0.392 & 0.546). FMGM์€ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ๊ฐ„ ์ฐจ์ด (0.217 & 0.410)๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ์ž์ฒด์˜ ์ถ”๋ก ์—์„œ๋„ ๋” ์šฐ์ˆ˜ํ•œ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์„ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค (0.492 & 0.572). ์‚ฌ์ „ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ piFMGM์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋„์ž…ํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ „์ฒด์ ์ธ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์ด ๋ฏธ์„ธํ•œ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค (0.546 & 0.562). ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ์˜ ์ถ”๋ก ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ (0.572 & 0.589), ์ฐจ์ด๋ฅผ ์ถ”๋ก ํ•  ๋•Œ์˜ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ ์—ญ์‹œ ์ž‘์€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋„์—ˆ๋‹ค (0.410 & 0.423). 6๊ฐœ์›” ์•„๋™์˜ ์•„ํ† ํ”ผ์„ฑ ํ”ผ๋ถ€์—ผ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ์ถ”๋ก ์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์ˆ™์ฃผ์˜ LINC01036 ๋ฐ MIR4788 ๋ฐœํ˜„, ์žฅ๋‚ด ๋ฏธ์ƒ๋ฌผ์˜ ์นด๋กœํ‹ฐ๋…ธ์ด๋“œ ์ƒํ•ฉ์„ฑ ๋ฐ RNA ๋ถ„ํ•ด ๊ด€๋ จ ์œ ์ „์ž ๋“ฑ, 10๊ฐœ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ ์Œ์ด ํ”ผ๋ถ€์—ผ ์—ฌ๋ถ€์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ƒ๊ด€์„ฑ ์ฐจ์ด๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋ƒˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฒฐ๋ก  ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ธ FMGM์€ ๊ธฐ์กด ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋น„ํ•ด 2๊ฐœ ์ง‘๋‹จ์˜ ํ˜ผํ•ฉํ˜• ์ž๋ฃŒ์—์„œ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ๋ฅผ ์ถ”๋ก ํ•  ๋•Œ ๋” ์ข‹์€ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋ƒˆ๋‹ค. ์‚ฌ์ „ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ piFMGM์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ํฌํ•จ์‹œํ‚ฌ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ์ถ”๋ก ์˜ ์ •ํ™•์„ฑ์ด ํ–ฅ์ƒ๋˜๋‚˜, ๊ทธ ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ํฌ์ง€ ์•Š์•„ ์ถ”ํ›„ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ์ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ์ „์‹œํ‚ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค์ค‘ ์˜ค๋ฏน์Šค ์ž๋ฃŒ์˜ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ์ถ”๋ก  ๋ถ„์„์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์žฅ๋‚ด ๋ฏธ์ƒ๋ฌผ์˜ ์นด๋กœํ‹ฐ๋…ธ์ด๋“œ ์ƒํ•ฉ์„ฑ ๋˜๋Š” RNA ๋ถ„ํ•ด ๊ด€๋ จ ์œ ์ „์ž ๋“ฑ ์•„ํ† ํ”ผ์„ฑ ํ”ผ๋ถ€์—ผ๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ์ƒ๋ฌผํ•™์  ๋งˆ์ปค๋ฅผ ๋ณต์ˆ˜ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์•„ํ† ํ”ผ์„ฑ ํ”ผ๋ถ€์—ผ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ €์— ์‚ฐํ™” ์ŠคํŠธ๋ ˆ์Šค ๋˜๋Š” ๋ฏธ์ƒ๋ฌผ RNA ์กฐ์ ˆ ๋“ฑ์ด ๊ด€๋ จ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Œ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ๋‹ค.Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Study Background 1 1.2 Prior Works 2 1.3 Purpose of Research 5 Chapter 2. Network Inference of 2-class Mixed Data 6 2.1 Introduction 6 2.2 Notations 8 2.3 Model Formulation 8 2.4 Optimization with Fast Proximal Gradient Method 12 2.5 Code Implementation 20 2.6 Simulated Data Analysis 20 2.7 Real Data Analysis: DNA Methylation Data 23 2.8 Discussion 26 Chapter 3. Integration of Prior Information for Network Inference 28 3.1 Introduction 29 3.2 Use of Separate Parameter for Prior Information 29 3.3 Determination of Regularization Parameters 30 3.4 Simulated Data Analysis 33 3.5 Real Data Analysis: Multi-Omics Data from Asthma Patients 35 3.6 Discussion 38 Chapter 4. Multi-Omics Data Analysis of Atopic Dermatitis (AD) 39 4.1 Background 39 4.2 Data Description 40 4.3 Statistical Analysis 43 4.4 Results 43 4.5 Discussion 45 Chapter 5. Conclusion 47 Appendix 49 Bibliography 53 Abstract in Korean 59๋ฐ•

    Enhancing models and measurements of traffic-related air pollutants for health studies using dispersion modeling and Bayesian data fusion

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    Research Report 202 describes a study led by Dr. Stuart Batterman at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor and colleagues. The investigators evaluated the ability to predict traffic-related air pollution using a variety of methods and models, including a line source air pollution dispersion model and sophisticated spatiotemporal Bayesian data fusion methods. Exposure assessment for traffic-related air pollution is challenging because the pollutants are a complex mixture and vary greatly over space and time. Because extensive direct monitoring is difficult and expensive, a number of modeling approaches have been developed, but each model has its own limitations and errors. Dr. Batterman and colleagues sought to improve model estimations by applying and systematically comparing the performance of different statistical models. The study made extensive use of data collected in the Near-road EXposures and effects of Urban air pollutants Study (NEXUS), a cohort study designed to examine the relationship between near-roadway pollutant exposures and respiratory outcomes in children with asthma who live close to major roadways in Detroit, Michigan

    Advances in spatiotemporal models for non-communicable disease surveillance

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    Surveillance systems are commonly used to provide early warning detection or to assess an impact of an intervention/policy. Traditionally, the methodological and conceptual frameworks for surveillance have been designed for infectious diseases, but the rising burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) worldwide suggests a pressing need for surveillance strategies to detect unusual patterns in the data and to help unveil important risk factors in this setting. Surveillance methods need to be able to detect meaningful departures from expectation and exploit dependencies within such data to produce unbiased estimates of risk as well as future forecasts. This has led to the increasing development of a range of space-time methods specifically designed for NCD surveillance. We present an overview of recent advances in spatiotemporal disease surveillance for NCDs, using hierarchically specified models. This provides a coherent framework for modelling complex data structures, dealing with data sparsity, exploiting dependencies between data sources and propagating the inherent uncertainties present in both the data and the modelling process. We then focus on three commonly used models within the Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) framework and, through a simulation study, we compare their performance. We also discuss some challenges faced by researchers when dealing with NCD surveillance, including how to account for false detection and the modifiable areal unit problem. Finally, we consider how to use and interpret the complex models, how model selection may vary depending on the intended user group and how best to communicate results to stakeholders and the general public

    Environmental risk assessment in the mediterranean region using artificial neural networks

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    Los mapas auto-organizados han demostrado ser una herramienta apropiada para la clasificaciรณn y visualizaciรณn de grupos de datos complejos. Redes neuronales, como los mapas auto-organizados (SOM) o las redes difusas ARTMAP (FAM), se utilizan en este estudio para evaluar el impacto medioambiental acumulativo en diferentes medios (aguas subterrรกneas, aire y salud humana). Los SOMs tambiรฉn se utilizan para generar mapas de concentraciones de contaminantes en aguas subterrรกneas simulando las tรฉcnicas geostadรญsticas de interpolaciรณn como kriging y cokriging. Para evaluar la confiabilidad de las metodologรญas desarrolladas en esta tesis, se utilizan procedimientos de referencia como puntos de comparaciรณn: la metodologรญa DRASTIC para el estudio de vulnerabilidad en aguas subterrรกneas y el mรฉtodo de interpolaciรณn espacio-temporal conocido como Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) para el anรกlisis de calidad del aire. Esta tesis contribuye a demostrar las capacidades de las redes neuronales en el desarrollo de nuevas metodologรญas y modelos que explรญcitamente permiten evaluar las dimensiones temporales y espaciales de riesgos acumulativos
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