The Marginal Cost of Frailty Among Medicare Patients on Hemodialysis.

Introduction:Dialysis patients incur disproportionately high costs compared with other Medicare beneficiaries. Care for frail individuals may be even more costly. We examined the extent to which frailty contributes to higher costs among dialysis patients. Methods:We used ACTIVE/ADIPOSE (A Cohort to Investigate the Value of Exercise/Analyses Designed to Investigate the Paradox of Obesity and Survival in ESRD) enrollees (adult hemodialysis patients evaluated from June 2009 to August 2011) in a retrospective cohort analysis. Individuals using Medicare as the primary payer were included. Fried's frailty phenotype was evaluated at baseline, 12, and 24 months. Costs were derived from linkage with the US Renal Data System (USRDS) and Medicare claims data. We used generalized estimating equations (GEEs) incorporating time-updated frailty and costs to evaluate adjusted point estimates and the marginal cost associated with being frail. We also investigated if frail patients who died during the study incurred higher costs than those who survived. Results:Among 771 enrollees in ACTIVE/ADIPOSE, 425 met inclusion criteria. Mean age was 56 ± 13 years, body mass index (BMI) 29.2 ± 7.1 kg/m2, 42.4% were women, and 29.0% were frail at baseline. Over a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, frail individuals incurred 22% (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.6%-35.8%) higher costs compared with nonfrail individuals ($87,600 per patient per year [pppy], 95$71,800 pppy, 95% CI 64,800-79,600), the difference was driven primarily by higher inpatient expenditures. The difference between frail and nonfrail patients' inpatient expenditures was even more pronounced among those who died during the study compared with those who survived. Conclusions:Frail dialysis patients incur a significantly higher cost relative to their nonfrail counterparts, primarily driven by higher inpatient costs. Frail patients near end of life incur even higher costs

Development and validation of the DIabetes Severity SCOre (DISSCO) in 139 626 individuals with type 2 diabetes: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: Clinically applicable diabetes severity measures are lacking, with no previous studies comparing their predictive value with glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). We developed and validated a type 2 diabetes severity score (the DIabetes Severity SCOre, DISSCO) and evaluated its association with risks of hospitalization and mortality, assessing its additional risk information to sociodemographic factors and HbA1c. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used UK primary and secondary care data for 139 626 individuals with type 2 diabetes between 2007 and 2017, aged ≥35 years, and registered in general practices in England. The study cohort was randomly divided into a training cohort (n=111 748, 80%) to develop the severity tool and a validation cohort (n=27 878). We developed baseline and longitudinal severity scores using 34 diabetes-related domains. Cox regression models (adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation, and HbA1c) were used for primary (all-cause mortality) and secondary (hospitalization due to any cause, diabetes, hypoglycemia, or cardiovascular disease or procedures) outcomes. Likelihood ratio (LR) tests were fitted to assess the significance of adding DISSCO to the sociodemographics and HbA1c models. RESULTS: A total of 139 626 patients registered in 400 general practices, aged 63±12 years were included, 45% of whom were women, 83% were White, and 18% were from deprived areas. The mean baseline severity score was 1.3±2.0. Overall, 27 362 (20%) people died and 99 951 (72%) had ≥1 hospitalization. In the training cohort, a one-unit increase in baseline DISSCO was associated with higher hazard of mortality (HR: 1.14, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.15, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC)=0.76) and cardiovascular hospitalization (HR: 1.45, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.46, AUROC=0.73). The LR tests showed that adding DISSCO to sociodemographic variables significantly improved the predictive value of survival models, outperforming the added value of HbA1c for all outcomes. Findings were consistent in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of DISSCO are associated with higher risks for hospital admissions and mortality. The new severity score had higher predictive value than the proxy used in clinical practice, HbA1c. This reproducible algorithm can help practitioners stratify clinical care of patients with type 2 diabetes

Association of Clinical Characteristics With Variation in Emergency Physician Preferences for Patients.

Importance:Much of the wide variation in health care has been associated with practice variation among physicians. Physicians choosing to see patients with more (or fewer) care needs could also produce variations in care observed across physicians. Objective:To quantify emergency physician preferences by measuring nonrandom variations in patients they choose to see. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cross-sectional study used a large, detailed clinical data set from an electronic health record system of a single academic hospital. The data set included all emergency department (ED) encounters of adult patients from January 1, 2010, to May 31, 2015, as well as ED visits information. Data were analyzed from September 1, 2018, to March 31, 2019. Exposure:Patient assignment to a particular emergency physician. Main Outcomes and Measures:Variation in patient characteristics (age, sex, acuity [Emergency Severity Index score], and comorbidities) seen by emergency physicians before patient selection, adjusted for temporal factors (seasonal, weekly, and hourly variation in patient mix). Results:This study analyzed 294 915 visits to the ED seen by 62 attending physicians. Of the 294 915 patients seen, the mean (SD) age was 48.6 (19.8) years and 176 690 patients (59.9%) were women. Many patient characteristics, such as age (F = 2.2; P < .001), comorbidities (F = 1.7; P < .001), and acuity (F = 4.7; P < .001), varied statistically significantly. Compared with the lowest-quintile physicians for each respective characteristic, the highest-quintile physicians saw patients who were older (mean age, 47.9 [95% CI, 47.8-48.1] vs 49.7 [95% CI, 49.5-49.9] years, respectively; difference, +1.8 years; 95% CI, 1.5-2.0 years) and sicker (mean comorbidity score: 0.4 [95% CI, 0.3-0.5] vs 1.8 [95% CI, 1.7-1.8], respectively; difference, +1.3; 95% CI, 1.2-1.4). These differences were absent or highly attenuated during overnight shifts, when only 1 physician was on duty and there was limited room for patient selection. Compared with earlier in the shift, the same physician later in the shift saw patients who were younger (mean age, 49.7 [95% CI, 49.4-49.7] vs 44.6 [95 % CI, 44.3-44.9] years, respectively; difference, -5.1 years; 95% CI, 4.8-5.5) and less sick (mean comorbidity score: 0.7 [95% CI, 0.7-0.8] vs 1.1 [95% CI, 1.1-1.1], respectively; difference, -0.4; 95% CI, 0.4-0.4). Accounting for preference variation resulted in substantial reordering of physician ranking by care intensity, as measured by ED charges, with 48 of 62 physicians (77%) being reclassified into a different quintile and 9 of 12 physicians (75%) in the highest care intensity quintile moving into a lower quintile. A regression model demonstrated that 22% of reported ED charges were associated with physician preference. Conclusions and Relevance:This study found preference variation across physicians and within physicians during the course of a shift. These findings suggest that current efforts to reduce practice variation may not affect the variation associated with physician preferences, which reflect underlying differences in patient needs and not physician practice

Aortic volume determines global end-diastolic volume measured by transpulmonary thermodilution

BACKGROUND: Global end-diastolic volume (GEDV) measured by transpulmonary thermodilution is regarded as indicator of cardiac preload. A bolus of cold saline injected in a central vein travels through the heart and lung, but also the aorta until detection in a femoral artery. While it is well accepted that injection in the inferior vena cava results in higher values, the impact of the aortic volume on GEDV is unknown. In this study, we hypothesized that a larger aortic volume directly translates to a numerically higher GEDV measurement. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from 88 critically ill patients with thermodilution monitoring and who did require a contrast-enhanced thoraco-abdominal computed tomography scan. Aortic volumes derived from imaging were compared with GEDV measurements in temporal proximity. RESULTS: Median aortic volume was 194 ml (interquartile range 147 to 249 ml). Per milliliter increase of the aortic volume, we found a GEDV increase by 3.0 ml (95% CI 2.0 to 4.1 ml, p < 0.001). In case a femoral central venous line was used for saline bolus injection, GEDV raised additionally by 2.1 ml (95% CI 0.5 to 3.7 ml, p = 0.01) per ml volume of the vena cava inferior. Aortic volume explained 59.3% of the variance of thermodilution-derived GEDV. When aortic volume was included in multivariate regression, GEDV variance was unaffected by sex, age, body height, and weight. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the aortic volume is a substantial confounding variable for GEDV measurements performed with transpulmonary thermodilution. As the aorta is anatomically located after the heart, GEDV should not be considered to reflect cardiac preload. Guiding volume management by raw or indexed reference ranges of GEDV may be misleading

Quantitative storytelling in the making of a composite indicator

The reasons for and against composite indicators are briefly reviewed, as well as the available theories for their construction. After noting the strong normative dimension of these measures—which ultimately aim to ‘tell a story’, e.g. to promote the social discovery of a particular phenomenon, we inquire whether a less partisan use of a composite indicator can be proposed by allowing more latitude in the framing of its construction. We thus explore whether a composite indicator can be built to tell ‘more than one story’ and test this in practical contexts. These include measures used in convergence analysis in the field of cohesion policies and a recent case involving the World Bank’s Doing Business Index. Our experiments are built to imagine different constituencies and stakeholders who agree on the use of evidence and of statistical information while differing on the interpretation of what is relevant and vital

Clinical significance of obstructive sleep apnea in patients with acute coronary syndrome in relation to diabetes status.

Objective: The prognostic significance of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) according to diabetes mellitus (DM) status remains unclear. We aimed to elucidate the association of OSA with subsequent cardiovascular events in patients with ACS with or without DM. Research design and methods: In this prospective cohort study, consecutive eligible patients with ACS underwent cardiorespiratory polygraphy between June 2015 and May 2017. OSA was defined as an Apnea Hypopnea Index ≥15 events/hour. The primary end point was major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs), including cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemia-driven revascularization, or hospitalization for unstable angina or heart failure. Results: Among 804 patients, 248 (30.8%) had DM and 403 (50.1%) had OSA. OSA was associated with 2.5 times the risk of 1 year MACCE in patients with DM (22.3% vs 7.1% in the non-OSA group; adjusted HR (HR)=2.49, 95% CI 1.16 to 5.35, p=0.019), but not in patients without DM (8.5% vs 7.7% in the non-OSA group, adjusted HR=0.94, 95% CI 0.51 to 1.75, p=0.85). Patients with DM without OSA had a similar 1 year MACCE rate as patients without DM. The increased risk of events was predominately isolated to patients with OSA with baseline glucose or hemoglobin A1c levels above the median. Combined OSA and longer hypoxia duration (time with arterial oxygen saturation22 min) further increased the MACCE rate to 31.0% in patients with DM. Conclusions: OSA was associated with increased risk of 1 year MACCE following ACS in patients with DM, but not in non-DM patients. Further trials exploring the efficacy of OSA treatment in high-risk patients with ACS and DM are warranted

Hemoglobin A1c Levels Modify Associations between Dietary Acid Load and Breast Cancer Recurrence.

BackgroundMetabolic acidosis promotes cancer metastasis. No prospective studies have examined the association between dietary acid load and breast cancer recurrence among breast cancer survivors, who are susceptible to metabolic acidosis. Hyperglycemia promotes cancer progression and acid formation; however, researchers have not examined whether hyperglycemia can modify the association between dietary acid load and breast cancer recurrence.MethodsWe studied 3081 early-stage breast cancer survivors enrolled in the Women's Healthy Eating and Living study who provided dietary information through 24-h recalls at baseline and during follow-up and had measurements of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) at baseline. We assessed dietary acid load using two common dietary acid load scores, potential renal acid load (PRAL) score and net endogenous acid production (NEAP) score.ResultsAfter an average of 7.3 years of follow-up, dietary acid load was positively associated with recurrence when baseline HbA1c levels were ≥ 5.6% (median level) and ≥5.7% (pre-diabetic cut-point). In the stratum with HbA1c ≥ 5.6%, comparing the highest to the lowest quartile of dietary acid load, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio was 2.15 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-3.48) for PRAL and was 2.31 (95% CI 1.42-3.74) for NEAP. No associations were observed in the stratum with HbA1c levels were &lt;5.6%. P-values for interactions were 0.01 for PRAL and 0.05 for NEAP.ConclusionsOur study demonstrated for the first time that even at or above normal to high HbA1c levels, dietary acid load was associated with increased risk of breast cancer recurrence among breast cancer survivors.ImpactsOur study provides strong evidence for developing specific dietary acid load guidelines based on HbA1c levels

Coronary CT Angiography and 5-Year Risk of Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Although coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) improves diagnostic certainty in the assessment of patients with stable chest pain, its effect on 5-year clinical outcomes is unknown. METHODS: In an open-label, multicenter, parallel-group trial, we randomly assigned 4146 patients with stable chest pain who had been referred to a cardiology clinic for evaluation to standard care plus CTA (2073 patients) or to standard care alone (2073 patients). Investigations, treatments, and clinical outcomes were assessed over 3 to 7 years of follow-up. The primary end point was death from coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction at 5 years. RESULTS: The median duration of follow-up was 4.8 years, which yielded 20,254 patient-years of follow-up. The 5-year rate of the primary end point was lower in the CTA group than in the standard-care group (2.3% [48 patients] vs. 3.9% [81 patients]; hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41 to 0.84; P=0.004). Although the rates of invasive coronary angiography and coronary revascularization were higher in the CTA group than in the standard-care group in the first few months of follow-up, overall rates were similar at 5 years: invasive coronary angiography was performed in 491 patients in the CTA group and in 502 patients in the standard-care group (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.13), and coronary revascularization was performed in 279 patients in the CTA group and in 267 in the standard-care group (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.27). However, more preventive therapies were initiated in patients in the CTA group (odds ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.65), as were more antianginal therapies (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.54). There were no significant between-group differences in the rates of cardiovascular or noncardiovascular deaths or deaths from any cause. CONCLUSIONS: In this trial, the use of CTA in addition to standard care in patients with stable chest pain resulted in a significantly lower rate of death from coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction at 5 years than standard care alone, without resulting in a significantly higher rate of coronary angiography or coronary revascularization. (Funded by the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office and others; SCOT-HEART ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01149590 .)

The epidemiology of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in rural East Africa: A population-based study.

BackgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) may be common among individuals living in sub-Saharan Africa due to the confluence of CKD risk factors and genetic predisposition.MethodsWe ascertained the prevalence of CKD and its risk factors among a sample of 3,686 participants of a population-based HIV trial in rural Uganda and Kenya. Prevalent CKD was defined as a serum creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate &lt;60 mL/min/1.73m2 or proteinuria (urine dipstick ≥1+). We used inverse-weighting to estimate the population prevalence of CKD, and multivariable log-link Poisson models to assess the associations of potential risk factors with CKD.ResultsThe estimated CKD prevalence was 6.8% (95% CI 5.7-8.1%) overall and varied by region, being 12.5% (10.1-15.4%) in eastern Uganda, 3.9% (2.2-6.8%) in southwestern Uganda and 3.7% (2.7-5.1%) in western Kenya. Risk factors associated with greater CKD prevalence included age ≥60 years (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 3.5 [95% CI 1.9-6.5] compared with age 18-29 years), HIV infection (aPR 1.6 [1.1-2.2]), and residence in eastern Uganda (aPR 3.9 [2.6-5.9]). However, two-thirds of individuals with CKD did not have HIV, diabetes, or hypertension as risk factors. Furthermore, we noted many individuals who did not have proteinuria had dipstick positive leukocyturia or hematuria.ConclusionThe prevalence of CKD is appreciable in rural East Africa and there are considerable regional differences. Conventional risk factors appear to only explain a minority of cases, and leukocyturia and hematuria were common, highlighting the need for further research into understanding the nature of CKD in sub-Saharan Africa