2013 Miracle Yearbook

https://digitalcommons.cedarville.edu/yearbooks/1093/thumbnail.jp

Azerbaijan in Transition

Jens Hölsche

Is the Mesolithic-Neolithic Subsistence Dichotomy Real? New Stable Isotope Evidence from the Danube Gorges

The article presents new results of stable isotope analyses made on animal and human bones from the Mesolithic-early Neolithic sites of Lepenski Vir and Vlasac in the Danube Gorges of the Balkans. It reconstructs the food web for the region during these periods on the basis of stable isotope analyses of mammal and fish species found at Vlasac. These results are compared to measurements made on human burials from the two sites. In the light of these new results, the article also discusses interpretations provided by previous isotopic studies of this material. It concludes that great care is required in the interpretation of stable isotope results due to inherent methodological complexities of this type of analysis, and suggests that it is also necessary to integrate stable isotope results with information based on the examination of faunal remains and the archaeological context of analysed burials when making inferences about palaeodietary patterns

Low Transmission to Elimination: Rural Development as a Key Determinant of the End-Game Dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum in China.

Rural development has been a critical component of China's economic miracle since the start of economic reform in the early 1980s, both benefiting from and contributing to the nation's rapid economic growth. This development has yielded substantial improvements of public health relevance, including contributing to major reductions in schistosomiasis prevalence. The history of schistosomiasis elimination in Japan suggests that development played a dominant causal role in that nation. We argue that it is highly probable that a similar story is playing out in at least some large regions of China. In particular, we summarize evidence from Sichuan Province which supports the case that economic development has led to improvements in rural irrigation and water supply which, together with changes in crop selection and agricultural mechanization, have all contributed to sustainable reductions in the prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum. The two major factors that have experienced major reductions are the area of snail habitat and the degree of human exposure, both through a variety of mechanisms which differ by region and economic circumstance. However, hotspots of transmission remain. Overall, however, economic development in traditionally endemic areas has provided the resources to carry out projects that have had major beneficial impacts on disease transmission that are likely to be sustainable

China’s Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today about China’s Economic Growth Tomorrow

Views of the future China vary widely. While some believe that the collapse of China is inevitable, others see the emergence of a new superpower that increasingly poses a threat to the U.S. This paper examines the economic growth prospects of China over the next two decades. Extrapolating past real GDP growth rates into the future, the size of the Chinese economy surpasses that of the U.S. in purchasing power terms between 2012 and 2015; by 2025, China is likely to be the world's largest economic power by almost any measure. The extrapolations are supported by two types of considerations. First, China’s growth patterns of the past 25 years since the beginning of economic reforms match well those identified by standard economic development and trade theories (structural change, catching up, and factor price equalization). Second, decomposing China’s GDP growth into growth of labor and other variables, the near-certain information available today about the quantity and quality of Chinese laborers through 2015 and possibly several years after allows inferences about future GDP growth. Short of some cataclysmic event, and given a continuation of the generally sound economic policies of the past, demographics alone suggests China’s continued economic rise. If talent is randomly distributed in the world population and if agglomeration of talent is important, then the odds are strongly in China’s favor.economic growth, growth accounting, growth forecasts, development theories, human capital formation, education (all: China)

Hybrid Power Sharing: On How to Stabilize the Political Situation in Multi-Segmental Societies

There are various ways of reducing conflicts and of stabilizing the political situation in states where society is made up of many different ethnic groups and religious communities, and where relations between these segments – or between them and the central government – are tense. A particularly important way is the establishment in those states of a political system based on power-sharing (PS), which allows members of various ethnic and religious segments to take part in the exercise of power. The literature on the subject usually discusses two models of PS: consociationalism and centripetalism. A third model is encountered in practice, however, that of hybrid power-sharing (HPS), which combines the institutions of the first two. The main objective of this article is to explain the nature and origins of HPS