O JOGO ENTRE ELITES E INSTITUIÇÕES: as estratégias políticas de ACM Neto e a tradição carlista

Este artigo tem por objetivo principal analisar as estratégias de um ator político no cenário baiano e nacional, ACM Neto (atual prefeito de Salvador), e sua relação com a tradição carlista, grupo formado no Estado da Bahia em torno da forte liderança de seu avô ACM que, durante algumas décadas, foi o político mais importante do Estado e um dos mais influentes do Brasil. Tendo como pano de fundo teórico a relação entre elites e instituições políticas em democracias contemporâneas, o trabalho busca identificar as estratégias deste ator político entre anos de 2002 e 2016 discutindo como ACM Neto se relacionou com o grupo carlista e sua tradição. Para tanto, analisa a atuação parlamentar e alianças políticas construídas no âmbito do seu mandato como deputado federal (2002-2012) e o repertório simbólico mobilizado nas campanhas proporcionais para deputado federal (2002, 2006, 2010) e majoritárias para Prefeito de Salvador (2008, 2012, 2016).Palavras-Chave: ACM Neto; Carlismo; Elites Políticas; InstituiçõesTHE GAME BETWEEN ELITES AND INSTITUIONS: the political strategies of ACM Neto and his carlista traditionABSTRACTThis article aims to analyze the strategies of a political actor in the state of Bahia and in the national scenario, ACM Neto (current mayor of Salvador, Brazil) and his relation with carlista tradition. Carlismo is a term that refers to a group formed in the State of Bahia around the strong leadership of ACM Neto’s grandfather, who for some decades was the most important politician in the state and one of the most influential in Brazil. Based on the theoretical background of the relationship between elites and political institutions in contemporary democracies, this article seeks to identify the political strategies of this political actor between 2002 and 2016, discussing how ACM Neto was related to the carlista group and its tradition. This article analyses the parliamentary performance and the political alliances built during ACM Neto’s mandate as a federal deputy (2002-2012) and the symbolic repertoire mobilized in the campaigns for the proportional elections for federal deputy (2002, 2006, 2010) and for the majoritarian elections for Mayor of Salvador, capital of the State of Bahia (2008, 2012, 2016).Key words: ACM Neto; Carlismo; Political Elites; InstitutionsLE JEU ENTRE LES ÉLITES ET LES INSTITUTIONS: les stratégies politiques de ACM Neto et la tradition carlisteABSTRACTL’objectif de cet article est d’analyser, dans le cadre de l’état de Bahia et au niveau national, les stratégies d’un acteur politique, ACM Neto (actuel maire de Salvador) et ses relations avec la tradition carliste, un groupe formé dans l’État de Bahia autour de l’énorme leadership de son grand-père ACM qui, pendant plusieurs décennies, a été le politicien le plus important de l’État de Bahia et l’un des plus influents au Brésil. Basé sur la théorie de la relation entre les élites et les institutions politiques dans les démocraties contemporaines, l’étude cherche à identifier les stratégies politiques de cet acteur politique entre 2002 et 2016, à savoir comment ACM Neto a été lié au groupe carliste et à sa tradition. Pour ce faire, on analyse la performance parlementaire et les alliances politiques élaborées dans le cadre de son mandat en tant que député fédéral (2002-2012) ainsi que le répertoire symbolique mobilisé dans les campagnes proportionnelles pour l’élection à député fédéral (2002, 2006, 2010) et les campagnes majoritaires pour l’élection à maire de Salvador (2008 , 2012, 2016).Key words: ACM Neto; Carlisme; Élites Politiques; Institution

A meta-analysis of state-of-the-art electoral prediction from Twitter data

Electoral prediction from Twitter data is an appealing research topic. It seems relatively straightforward and the prevailing view is overly optimistic. This is problematic because while simple approaches are assumed to be good enough, core problems are not addressed. Thus, this paper aims to (1) provide a balanced and critical review of the state of the art; (2) cast light on the presume predictive power of Twitter data; and (3) depict a roadmap to push forward the field. Hence, a scheme to characterize Twitter prediction methods is proposed. It covers every aspect from data collection to performance evaluation, through data processing and vote inference. Using that scheme, prior research is analyzed and organized to explain the main approaches taken up to date but also their weaknesses. This is the first meta-analysis of the whole body of research regarding electoral prediction from Twitter data. It reveals that its presumed predictive power regarding electoral prediction has been rather exaggerated: although social media may provide a glimpse on electoral outcomes current research does not provide strong evidence to support it can replace traditional polls. Finally, future lines of research along with a set of requirements they must fulfill are provided.Comment: 19 pages, 3 table

Public Evidence from Secret Ballots

Elections seem simple---aren't they just counting? But they have a unique, challenging combination of security and privacy requirements. The stakes are high; the context is adversarial; the electorate needs to be convinced that the results are correct; and the secrecy of the ballot must be ensured. And they have practical constraints: time is of the essence, and voting systems need to be affordable and maintainable, and usable by voters, election officials, and pollworkers. It is thus not surprising that voting is a rich research area spanning theory, applied cryptography, practical systems analysis, usable security, and statistics. Election integrity involves two key concepts: convincing evidence that outcomes are correct and privacy, which amounts to convincing assurance that there is no evidence about how any given person voted. These are obviously in tension. We examine how current systems walk this tightrope.Comment: To appear in E-Vote-Id '1

Detecting and Tracking the Spread of Astroturf Memes in Microblog Streams

Online social media are complementing and in some cases replacing person-to-person social interaction and redefining the diffusion of information. In particular, microblogs have become crucial grounds on which public relations, marketing, and political battles are fought. We introduce an extensible framework that will enable the real-time analysis of meme diffusion in social media by mining, visualizing, mapping, classifying, and modeling massive streams of public microblogging events. We describe a Web service that leverages this framework to track political memes in Twitter and help detect astroturfing, smear campaigns, and other misinformation in the context of U.S. political elections. We present some cases of abusive behaviors uncovered by our service. Finally, we discuss promising preliminary results on the detection of suspicious memes via supervised learning based on features extracted from the topology of the diffusion networks, sentiment analysis, and crowdsourced annotations