Jefferson Journal Award

The Jefferson Journal Award has been established to honor the best paper submitted during each calendar year to the Jefferson Journal of Psychiatry: A Resident Publication. An award of one thousand dollars is given to the chosen author, with an additional one thousand dollars to be given to the residency program or fellowship in which the author is enrolled. The winning submission is selected by the Journal\u27s editorial board from manuscripts submitted on any subject related to psychiatric practice or research. The editorial board of the Journal is proud to announce the recipient of the 1993 Jefferson Journal Award: Scott A. West , M.D., for his article entitled Pharmacologic Advances In The Treatment of Schizophrenia. Dr. West is a Fellow in the Biological Psychiatry Program at the University of Cincinnati College of Medicine

Spatial-temporal analysis of breast cancer in upper Cape Cod, Massachusetts

INTRODUCTION. The reasons for elevated breast cancer rates in the upper Cape Cod area of Massachusetts remain unknown despite several epidemiological studies that investigated possible environmental risk factors. Data from two of these population-based case-control studies provide geocoded residential histories and information on confounders, creating an invaluable dataset for spatial-temporal analysis of participants' residency over five decades. METHODS. The combination of statistical modeling and mapping is a powerful tool for visualizing disease risk in a spatial-temporal analysis. Advances in geographic information systems (GIS) enable spatial analytic techniques in public health studies previously not feasible. Generalized additive models (GAMs) are an effective approach for modeling spatial and temporal distributions of data, combining a number of desirable features including smoothing of geographical location, residency duration, or calendar years; the ability to estimate odds ratios (ORs) while adjusting for confounders; selection of optimum degree of smoothing (span size); hypothesis testing; and use of standard software. We conducted a spatial-temporal analysis of breast cancer case-control data using GAMs and GIS to determine the association between participants' residential history during 1947–1993 and the risk of breast cancer diagnosis during 1983–1993. We considered geographic location alone in a two-dimensional space-only analysis. Calendar year, represented by the earliest year a participant lived in the study area, and residency duration in the study area were modeled individually in one-dimensional time-only analyses, and together in a two-dimensional time-only analysis. We also analyzed space and time together by applying a two-dimensional GAM for location to datasets of overlapping calendar years. The resulting series of maps created a movie which allowed us to visualize changes in magnitude, geographic size, and location of elevated breast cancer risk for the 40 years of residential history that was smoothed over space and time. RESULTS. The space-only analysis showed statistically significant increased areas of breast cancer risk in the northern part of upper Cape Cod and decreased areas of breast cancer risk in the southern part (p-value = 0.04; ORs: 0.90–1.40). There was also a significant association between breast cancer risk and calendar year (p-value = 0.05; ORs: 0.53–1.38), with earlier calendar years resulting in higher risk. The results of the one-dimensional analysis of residency duration and the two-dimensional analysis of calendar year and duration showed that the risk of breast cancer increased with increasing residency duration, but results were not statistically significant. When we considered space and time together, the maps showed a large area of statistically significant elevated risk for breast cancer near the Massachusetts Military Reservation (p-value range:0.02–0.05; ORs range: 0.25–2.5). This increased risk began with residences in the late 1940s and remained consistent in size and location through the late 1950s. CONCLUSION. Spatial-temporal analysis of the breast cancer data may help identify new exposure hypotheses that warrant future epidemiologic investigations with detailed exposure models. Our methods allow us to visualize breast cancer risk, adjust for known confounders including age at diagnosis or index year, family history of breast cancer, parity and age at first live- or stillbirth, and test for the statistical significance of location and time. Despite the advantages of GAMs, analyses are for exploratory purposes and there are still methodological issues that warrant further research. This paper illustrates that GAM methods are a suitable alternative to widely-used cluster detection methods and may be preferable when residential histories from existing epidemiological studies are available.National Cancer Institute (5R03CA119703-02); National Institute of Enviornmental Health (5P42ES007381

Using high-frequency data and time series models to improve yield management

We show the potential contribution of time series models (TSM) to the analysis of high frequency (less than monthly) time series of economic activity. The evolution of the series is induced by stable patterns of behavior of economic agents; but these patterns are so complex that simple smoothing techniques or subjective forecasting can not consider all underlying factors and TSM are needed if a full efficient analysis is to be carried out. The main ideas are illustrated with an apllication to Spanish daily electricity consumption

Two concertos being the first & eleventh Solos of A. Corelli, as they are made into concerto's by Mr. Obadiah Shuttleworth: a performing edition and commentary

Music historians have long known that the two concertos by Obadiah Shuttleworth (d.1734) are amongst the earliest examples of the Corellian concerto grosso form written in England, but these concertos have never been available in a modern performing edition. Andrew Pink was asked to make this new scholarly edition of the concertos for a performance in London by the orchestra of The Musicall Compass in November 2004

New times, new politics: history and memory during the final years of the CPGB

This article examines the relationship between collective memory, historical interpretation and political identity. It focuses on the dissolution of the Communist Party of Great Britain (CPGB) as constructed through collective narrative memory, and on Marxist interpretations of history. The divisions within the party and the wider Marxist community, stretching from 1956 until 1991, were often framed around questions of historical interpretation. The events of 1989–1991 created an historical and mnemonic crisis for CPGB members who struggled to reconcile their past identities with their present situation. Unlike the outward-facing revisionism of other political parties, this was an intensely personal affair. The solution for many was to emphasise the need to find new ways to progress socialist aims, without relying on a discredited grand narrative. In contrast, other Communist parties, such as the Communist Party of Britain, which had been established (or ‘re-established’) in 1988, fared rather better. By adhering to the international party line of renewal and continued struggle, the party was able to hold its narrative together, condemning the excesses of totalitarian regimes, while reaffirming the need for international class struggle