Science and Ideology in Economic, Political, and Social Thought

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using natural science methods in economics was met with little understanding and often considerable hostility. I found economics to be driven less by common sense and empirical evidence, then by various ideologies that exhibited either a political or a methodological bias, or both. This brings me to the second source: Several books have appeared recently that describe in historical terms the ideological forces that have shaped either the direct areas in which I worked, or a broader background. These books taught me that the ideological forces in the social sciences are even stronger than I imagined on the basis of my own experiences. The scientific method is the antipode to ideology. I feel that the scientific work that I have done on specific, long standing and fundamental problems in economics and political science have given me additional insights into the destructive role of ideology beyond the history of thought orientation of the works I will be discussing

Science and Ideology in Economic, Political, and Social Thought

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using natural science methods in economics was met with little understanding and often considerable hostility. I found economics to be driven less by common sense and empirical evidence, then by various ideologies that exhibited either a political or a methodological bias, or both. This brings me to the second source: Several books have appeared recently that describe in historical terms the ideological forces that have shaped either the direct areas in which I worked, or a broader background. These books taught me that the ideological forces in the social sciences are even stronger than I imagined on the basis of my own experiences. The scientific method is the antipode to ideology. I feel that the scientific work that I have done on specific, long standing and fundamental problems in economics and political science have given me additional insights into the destructive role of ideology beyond the history of thought orientation of the works I will be discussing.Business cycles; Ideology; Science; Voting; Welfare measurement

Evaluating audience responses to promotional messages

This study explored the guidelines advocated by selected media content analysis with the aim of identifying effective approaches to evaluate audience responses to promotional messages. Drawing from literature and documented deliberations by industry professionals, content-specific analysis protocols were applied and tested using a case study representing topic-specific responses to the Two Oceans Quay 5 product launch. In doing so, a logical observation of the communication in unpaid media placements and relevant discussions distributed in public media channels was completed. It is in this sense that this research enriches the study of public relations with a particular focus on output-driven evaluation. It provides insights into qualitative and quantitative publicity measurement and suggests how these methods can be useful to explicate the impact of media coverage as a public relations element. While it largely focused on discovering improved media content analysis solutions, this study revealed that content-driven analysis can only be useful when its protocols are aligned with the context of the data and if communication practitioners remain aware and transparent of its subjectivity. In this regard, this study helps to generate an understanding of the subjective dynamic of public relations and the importance of in-depth and adaptable publicity assessments to help distinguish public relations as a purposeful branding function next to advertising and marketing

The student-produced electronic portfolio in craft education

The authors studied primary school students’ experiences of using an electronic portfolio in their craft education over four years. A stimulated recall interview was applied to collect user experiences and qualitative content analysis to analyse the collected data. The results indicate that the electronic portfolio was experienced as a multipurpose tool to support learning. It makes the learning process visible and in that way helps focus on and improves the quality of learning. © ISLS.Peer reviewe

An evolutionary theory of systemic risk and its mitigation for the global financial system

This thesis is the outcome of theory development research into an identified gap in knowledge about systemic risk of the global financial system. It takes a systems-theoretic approach, incorporating a simulation-constructivist orientation towards the meaning of theory and theory development, within a realist constructivism epistemology for knowledge generation about complex social phenomena. The specific purpose of which is to describe systemic risk of failure, and explain how it occurs in the global financial system, in order to diagnose and understand circumstances in which it arises, and offer insights into how that risk may be mitigated. An outline theory is developed, introducing a new operational definition of systemic risk of failure in which notions from evolutionary economics, finance and complexity science are combined with a general interpretation of entropy, to explain how catastrophic phenomena arise in that system. When a conceptual model incorporating the Icelandic financial system failure over the years 2003 – 2008 is constructed from this theory, and the results of simulation experiments using a verified computational representation of the model are validated with empirical data from that event, and corroborated by theoretical triangulation, a null-hypothesis about the theory is refuted. Furthermore, results show that interplay between a lack of diversity in system participation strategies and shared exposure to potential losses may be a key operational mechanism of catastrophic tensions arising in the supply and demand of financial services. These findings suggest new policy guidance for pre-emptive intervention calls for improved operational transparency from system participants, and prompt access to data about their operational behaviour, in order to prevent positive feedback inducing a failure of the system to operate within required parameters. The theory is then revised to reflect new insights exposed by simulation, and finally submitted as a new theory capable of unifying existing knowledge in this problem domain

Spirituality and Addiction

This Special Issue includes articles which discuss the longstanding recognition of diverse connections between spirituality and addiction, as well as emerging discussions regarding the spiritual dimensions of addiction treatments. The overall focus is on the overlaps between the journey into addiction and the spiritual journey, informed by the insight of Carl Jung that addictive craving and the seeking of ultimate meaning may be intimately connected. The multiplicity of forms which addiction can assume in contemporary society are the scope of the issue. The overall purpose of the Special Issue is to extend the range of manifestations of addiction which are part of a discussion relating to the soul of recovery. Through this extended agenda of forms of addiction, the Special Issue supplements existing literature on the subject of spirituality and addiction

State and private pensions, retirement behaviour and personal capital accumulation

The aim of this thesis has been to investigate the relationship between state and private pensions and personal savings. A theoretical framework has been developed to facilitate the a priori determination of the relationship and an empirical investigation then undertaken using data for the U. K. in the postwar period. These two aspects of the thesis will firstly be summarised. Initially, the standard life cycle model of individual accumulation is extended to include a flat rate pension scheme. The introduction of the scheme will have an impact on savings determined by a savings replacement effect, where pension saving is substituted for alternative forms personal saving, and an induced retirement effect, where savings is increased to finance a longer retirement period. The net effect on savings will depend on the rate of return to pension contributions, and therefore lifetime income, implied by the combination of the two effects. As membership of state pension schemes is usually compulsory there exists the possibility that the implied rate of return can be above or below the market rate, indeed it may even be negative, with the result that lifetime income may be higher or lower than prior to the introduction of the pension scheme. The impact on savings cannot therefore be determined at a theoretical level. Increasing pension contributions and benefits always lead to a reduction in work period and, under the usual assumptions, aggregate savings. These changes also induce early retirement. Having analysed the state pension case the model is further modified to include private pension schemes, in particular a terminal salary scheme, membership of which is assumed to be compulsory, and a money purchase scheme, the joining of which is a voluntary decision. Again, for the reasons outlined above, the effect on personal savings of introducing the private schemes cannot be determined a priori. It is still possible though to say something about the effect of changes in pension contributions and benefits. When considering the increasing of pension contributions and state pension benefits, the outcomes are as in the state pension case alone. If attention is confined to increasing private pension benefit functions by constant absolute amounts then early retirement and a reduction in work period savings are the unambiguous outcomes. In the case of the money purchase scheme early retirement also implies a larger private pension fund. The empirical estimation of the relationship has been attempted through the inclusion of pension wealth variables in the aggregate life cycle consumption function. Two definitions of pension wealth were used. Gross pension wealth has been defined as the discounted present value of future pension receipts weighted by survival probabilities whilst net pension wealth is gross pension wealth less the discounted present value of future pension contributions weighted by survival probabilities (termed liabilities). Unfortunately these definitions could only be used with state pensions - data was not available to evaluate these types of wealth variable in the case of private pensions. Over the period 1949-73 gross state pension wealth appears to have no impact on consumption, and therefore savings, whilst net pension wealth depresses consumption. The growth of the market value of the assets of superannuation- funds was used as a proxy for the growth of private pension wealth. This data was available for the period 1958-73. Whilst private pension wealth was found to be insignificant in the regressions in these same equations gross state pension wealth becomes significant and positive. If net pension wealth is substituted for the gross alternative its coefficient remains negative but its significance falls. Over both periods there was found to be no evidence of an induced retirement effect. Various estimates of the effect of the existence of pension schemes and changes in pension contributions and benefits were made on the basis of a range of estimated coefficients. As one would expect these estimates varied widely given the different signs of the coefficients on gross and net state pension wealth. There are four aspects of the work that, at the end of the day, give cause for concern. The two relating to the theoretical work are probably less serious than the two relating to the empirical work. In the development of the theoretical analysis the individuals work/leisure decision was given only passing consideration. Indeed it was only shown that if the individual moved continuously from the work to the retirement period then leisure considerations would be irrelevant. Nevertheless recognition was accorded to the possibility that if this move is discontinuous, which is highly likely to be the case, not only might the optimal retirement date be different to that derived in the basic model but also the earlier comparative statics results might no longer apply. In a recent paper Ulph (58) has begun to consider this problem in a model incorporating a terminal salary based private pension scheme. Employing an iso-elastic utility function in consumption and leisure he shows that certain assumptions relating to the parameters of the utility function imply that not all the comparative statics results of earlier chapters necessarily go through. Thus leisure considerations are not irrelevant to the analysis of pensions. The results also imply that analyses of the individuals life cycle problem which do not include pensions, and where the individual retires when the marginal utility of consumption falls below the marginal utility derived from spending all ones time in leisure, might be substantially changed when leisure considerations are taken into account. An obvious, extension of pension theory would then be to integrate it into a model of the above type, such as that of Blinder (13). Another important feature of the pension decision,, which again has only been covered rather briefly, is uncertainty about the length of lifetime. It has been shown that if it is assumed that there exists a perfect insurance market then the problem reduces to an analysis under certainty, the insurance asset obviating any problem arising from a probabilistic date of death. Ulph and Hemming (59) have since dropped this last assumption and shown how the results of this thesis are affected. Although this turns out to be to an extent: that gives little cause for concern, the new model does produce the results within a framework that is more realistic. The above paper also has important implications for another aspect of pension analysis. When lifetime is uncertain the purchase of a pension asset or annuity provides insurance and the individual should therefore be prepared to purchase it even if its return were less than actuarially fair. Now in evaluating the value of anticipated state pension wealth the average market rate of interest has been used to discount the expected value of future returns. This is an approximation of the actuarially fair rate of interest. But under uncertainty this is not the appropriate rate of discount - what ought to be used is the lowest rate of return at which the individual is just willing to purchase the annuity. In fact Ulph and Hemming show that whilst the individual is holding non-pension assets the appropriate rate of discount is the rate on those assets. Once the individual has run down his stock of these assets the appropriate rate of discount will be the subjective rate of discount incorporating a risk factor. Thus if the individual is holding the alternative asset the appropriate rate of discount is less than the actuarially fair rate, (see (3.6.4)). Pension wealth will therefore be underestimated. When none of the alternative assets are held the value of pension wealth can be under- or over-estimated depending on the relative magnitudes of the rates of interest and the subjective rate of discount. Not only do these results suggest that pension wealth might be evaluated incorrectly but it could be that the optimal bequest decision, which did not affect the earlier analysis, now becomes important in that individuals will be holding capital through the later part of their life. When they choose to make their bequest will affect their valuation of pension wealth. This interrelationship could produce some interesting results and is worth exploring further. Turning now to the problems arising on the estimation side one can consider firstly the general insignificance of the pension variables in the regression equations and the inconsistency of the short and long period estimates. In retrospect, it should have been realised that the wealth approach could present a problem in attempting to reconcile the theoretical and empirical results. Recall that increases in both state pension contributions and benefits always lead to a reduction in savings - when using the net state pension wealth variable in the estimated equations, no matter what the sign of its coefficient, both the above predictions cannot be confirmed simultaneously. This follows since increasing contributions and benefits respectively decreases and increases net state pension wealth. Only if the coefficient on gross state pension wealth had been positive and significant could both predictions have been borne out, That net state pension wealth alone should turn out to be significant, and then negative, implies that only the effect on savings of increasing contributions is confirmed. Possibly this result was to have been expected since the only acceptable way of explaining the difference between the coefficients on the two pension wealth variables is through the significance of liabilities. Unfortunately there appears to be no reasonable argument which explains why individual behaviour should be determined by liabilities rather than gross wealth. One has to be rather surprised about the apparent change in the relationship between the long and short data periods. A somewhat similar case of this arose when Feldstein (19) changed his data period. Since in both analyses the regressors: are all income and wealth variables it is difficult to believe that this is not a classic symptom of the multi-collinearity which is quite clearly present rather than some structural change in the relationship over time. In the theoretical developments an induced retirement effect played a prominent part in the discussion. When it came to estimation the effect was found to be non-existent. Indeed the data suggested that retirement patterns had not changed markedly over the postwar period. This is not surprising. Under the state pension scheme coverage was universal by 1946 and whilst subsequent changes in contributions and benefits have hardly had marginal effects on lifetime income it is unlikely that this will be affected by induced retirement because either many people will retire at the official retirement date or, for those retiring later, the retirement date is not a continuous variable. Even if this were not the case in practice estimation of the effect would be difficult since the retirement date is discrete as far as official statistics are concerned. As far as private pensions are concerned significant growth has taken place over the postwar period but still only half the working population are covered - many of these are younger workers whose retirement behaviour will not yet have been observed. Indeed this last point is one that applies to the study of private pensions as a whole. The empirical analysis of relationships involving private pensions has been scant and highly unsatisfactory. That no attempt was made to calculate a private pension wealth variable was simply due to data inadequacy: that no attempt was made to collect the data is explained by comparative advantage. As mentioned earlier the Government Actuaries Department are currently engaged in providing estimates. When these are available and the regression equations re-estimated some more useful results may emerge. Even when the specification and data problems are overcome there still might exist one reason why the results produced might not be convincing. When a life cycle model of individual behaviour has carefully been built up, and no one could disagree that when considering pension problems this is the appropriate type of model, it will always be disappointing that the model cannot truly be tested with the data currently available. All the methods considered for estimating such a model are only approximations - there can be no substitute for cross-section data relating to the behaviour of the same individuals over fairly long periods of time. Whilst this pessimism about the reliability of the results is clearly very healthy one is now only left to ponder whether the attitude would have been the same if the estimated coefficients had all been statistically significant and of the theoretically anticipated signs. One has to hope so

A Discursive Perspective on China\u27s Global Politics of Climate Change, 1992–2013

This dissertation investigates China’s recent shift in its climate change policy with a refined discourse approach. Methodologically, by adopting a neo-Gramscian notion of hegemony, a generative definition of discourse and an ontological pluralist position, the study constructs a theoretical framework named “discursive hegemony” that identifies the “social forces” for enabling social change and focuses on the role of discursive mechanisms via which the forces operate and produce effects. The key empirical finding of this study was that it was a co-evolution of conditions that shaped the outcome as China’s climate policy shift. In examining the case, a before-after within-case comparison was designed to analyze the variations in the material, institutional, and ideational conditions, with methods including interviews, conventional narrative/text analysis and descriptive statistics. Specifically, changes in energy use, the structure of decision-making body, and the narratives about sustainable development reflected how the above three types of social force processed in China in the first few years of the 21st century, causing the economic development agenda to absorb the climate issue, and turning the policy frame for the latter from mainly a diplomatic matter to a potential opportunity for better-quality growth. With the discursive operation of the “Science-based development”, China’s energy policy has been a good example of the Chinese understanding of sustainability characterized by economic primacy, ecological viability and social green-engineering. This way of discursive evolution, however, is a double-edged sword that has pushed forward some fast, top-down mitigation measures on the one hand, but has also created and will likely continue creating social and ecological havoc on the other hand. The study makes two major contributions. First and on the empirical level, because China is an international actor that was not expected to cooperate on the climate issue according to major IR theories, this study would add one critical case to the studies on global (environmental) governance and the ideational approach in the IR discipline. Second and on the theory-building level, the model of discursive hegemony can be a causally deeper mode of explanation because it traces the process of co-evolution of social forces

A scientific exploration of scenario planning, thinking, and cognitive biases

Scenario planning, as a recognised practice, is approaching the better part of a century. In this time it has experienced broad application across various industries and, as of late, growing popularity as an academic discipline. In stark contrast to its prolific use in the field and academia, is the lack in scholarly work that brings verifiable and robust knowledge regarding the efficacy of the practice. In order to understand the impact of scenario planning interventions, it is first necessary to understand scenario thinking. The importance of investigating scenario thinking lies in the notion that scenario planning has less to do with forecasting (i.e. aiming for facts) and more to do with futures-thinking (i.e. working with perceptions). The mental models, experiences, and abilities of scenario teams largely dictate the efficacy of a scenario planning intervention. At this time, however, scenario thinking remains a black box. The present investigation, first, provides a discussion on how to understand scenario thinking. A gestalt perspective is offered, where discrete cognitive features are defined, which comprise the structure of scenario thinking. The motivation to this discussion is understanding the level(s) of influence scenario thinking may succumb to, in the face of changes to external information. Next, three higher-order cognitions (creative, causal, and evaluative thinking) are explored, in depth, and tested against the Intuitive Logics model of scenario planning to help determine i) the robustness of scenario planning against ii) the influence of the cognitive experience. A multi-attribute approach is taken, borrowing methods from cognitive psychology, behavioural economics, and management science. A form of the traditional framing manipulation is used to measure for biases in scenario thinking. Results suggest that even the smallest change in information can lead to several biasing effects across the tested cognitive features of scenario thinking. Understanding the nature of influences on scenario thinking helps reveal the efficacy of scenario planning for management and organisations.Scenario planning, as a recognised practice, is approaching the better part of a century. In this time it has experienced broad application across various industries and, as of late, growing popularity as an academic discipline. In stark contrast to its prolific use in the field and academia, is the lack in scholarly work that brings verifiable and robust knowledge regarding the efficacy of the practice. In order to understand the impact of scenario planning interventions, it is first necessary to understand scenario thinking. The importance of investigating scenario thinking lies in the notion that scenario planning has less to do with forecasting (i.e. aiming for facts) and more to do with futures-thinking (i.e. working with perceptions). The mental models, experiences, and abilities of scenario teams largely dictate the efficacy of a scenario planning intervention. At this time, however, scenario thinking remains a black box. The present investigation, first, provides a discussion on how to understand scenario thinking. A gestalt perspective is offered, where discrete cognitive features are defined, which comprise the structure of scenario thinking. The motivation to this discussion is understanding the level(s) of influence scenario thinking may succumb to, in the face of changes to external information. Next, three higher-order cognitions (creative, causal, and evaluative thinking) are explored, in depth, and tested against the Intuitive Logics model of scenario planning to help determine i) the robustness of scenario planning against ii) the influence of the cognitive experience. A multi-attribute approach is taken, borrowing methods from cognitive psychology, behavioural economics, and management science. A form of the traditional framing manipulation is used to measure for biases in scenario thinking. Results suggest that even the smallest change in information can lead to several biasing effects across the tested cognitive features of scenario thinking. Understanding the nature of influences on scenario thinking helps reveal the efficacy of scenario planning for management and organisations

The teaching, assessment and examining of English language and literature from the Education Act of 1944 to the Education Reform Act of 1988

In the Preface, the focus is on the word 'standards' itself: the ineradicable human element in marking and the degree to which all marks and grades, particularly in the subject of English, are dependent upon a subjective evaluation of the quality of response - an essential component in the establishment and maintenance of standards. The various implications of the word 'standards' and the ease with with resultant ambiguities can lead the unwary commentator into wholly misleading statements are considered, and a definition is offered to serve as a touchstone for the thesis as a whole. The main body of the thesis is divided into two sections and a conclusion. Section One (containing Chapters 1-3) is largely based upon published writings about education: books, reports and papers issued by Government-appointed Committees and Councils, and officially ratified educational statistics; illustrated where appropriate by my own experience and research into the unpublished archives of Examination Boards. Section Two (containing Chapters 4-6) deals specifically with the development of GCE '0' and 'A' level examinations in English, and is very largely dependent upon my interpretation of evidence derived from examination papers, marking schemes, examiners' reports and candidates' scripts ... The Conclusion is an attempt to provide an answer to the obvious question as to why, if evidence of a widely-alleged decline in standards is as difficult to establish as the previous six chapters suggest, the charge is so widely accepted as proved. To do this it is necessary to see the matter of standards from a broader perspective than a factual focus on examination papers, candidates' scripts, examiners' reports, comparability studies and educational statistics. From the inception of the concept of a state education system there has inevitably been a political dimension to any discussion of standards, and political dimensions equally inevitably tend toward expediency and subjective reaction rather than objective assessment of perceived shortcomings. This is certainly true of the last two decades during which the political dimension has become more overt than ever before, and the gulf between political interpretation of educational achievements and that of the professionals involved has never been wider. It is the contention of the Conclusion that a key to this disparity lies in the history of the development of the National Curriculum, the nature of the political interventions therein, and the indications that these are based upon a consistent philosophy – which elevates knowledge above understanding, 'pencil-and-paper' testing above carefully weighted assessments, results above performance, and which supposes that the reintroduction of selective schools would be an automatic panacea. The Conclusion therefore looks forward beyond the stated 1988 terminal point of the study to examine the developments of the 1990s, and backward beyond the stated starting point of the 1944 Act to examine the reality of grammar school achievement. It is the final contention of this thesis that it is the fallacy and self-deception of the nostalgia for the grammar school tradition which underlies and accounts for the falsity of the claims, about declining standards