Endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education

Enrolment rates to higher education reveal quite large variation over time which cannot be explained by productivity shocks alone. We develop a human capital investment model in an overlapping generations framework that features endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education. Agents are heterogeneous in their beliefs about future wage differentials. An evolutionary competition between the heterogeneous beliefs determines the fraction of the newborn generation having a certain belief. Costly access to information on the returns to education induces agents to use potentially destabilizing backward looking prediction rules. Only if previous generations experience regret about their human capital investment decisions, agents will choose a more sophisticated prediction rule that dampens the cycle. Access to information becomes key for stable flows to higher education. expectations ; human capital investment ; endogenous fluctuations ; intergenerational spill-overs evolutionary dynamics ; bifurcation analysis -- Einschreibungen an Fachhochschulen und Universitäten weisen starke zyklische Schwankungen auf, die nicht allein durch Produktivitätsschocks erklärt werden können. Es wird ein Humankapitalmodell mit überlappenden Generationen vorgestellt, das die Eigenschaft besitzt, Zyklen in der Nachfrage nach Bildung endogen zu erklären. Im Modell sind die Akteure heterogen in Bezug auf ihre Voraussagen über zukünftige Lohndifferentiale. Ein evolutionärer Wettbewerb unter den Voraussagemethoden bestimmt den Anteil der Akteure, der ein bestimmtes Prognoseinstrument verwendet. Da der Zugang zu Informationen über zukünftige Humankapitalrenditen mit Kosten verbunden ist, weichen die Akteure auf vergangenheitsorientierte Voraussagemethoden aus, die destabilisierend wirken können. Nur dann, wenn frühere Generationen die Art und Weise wie sie prognostizierten bereuen, werden die Akteure kompliziertere, zukunftsgerichtete, Prognoseinstrumente wählen, welche die Zyklen dämpfen. Damit werden leicht verfügbare Informationen über Arbeitsmarktentwicklungen zur Schlüsselvariablen für konstante Zugänge zu Fachhochschulen und Universitäten, aber auch anderen Bildungsträgern.

Endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education

"Enrolment rates to higher education reveal quite large variation over time which cannot be explained by productivity shocks alone. We develop a human capital investment model in an overlapping generations framework that features endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education. Agents are heterogeneous in their beliefs about future wage differentials. An evolutionary competition between the heterogeneous beliefs determines the fraction of the newborn generation having a certain belief. Costly access to information on the returns to education induces agents to use potentially destabilizing backward looking prediction rules. Only if previous generations experience regret about their human capital investment decisions, agents will choose a more sophisticated prediction rule that dampens the cycle. Access to information becomes key for stable flows to higher education." (author's abstract)"Einschreibungen an Fachhochschulen und Universitäten weisen starke zyklische Schwankungen auf, die nicht allein durch Produktivitätsschocks erklärt werden können. Es wird ein Humankapitalmodell mit überlappenden Generationen vorgestellt, das die Eigenschaft besitzt, Zyklen in der Nachfrage nach Bildung endogen zu erklären. Im Modell sind die Akteure heterogen in Bezug auf ihre Voraussagen über zukünftige Lohndifferentiale. Ein evolutionärer Wettbewerb unter den Voraussagemethoden bestimmt den Anteil der Akteure, der ein bestimmtes Prognoseinstrument verwendet. Da der Zugang zu Informationen über zukünftige Humankapitalrenditen mit Kosten verbunden ist, weichen die Akteure auf vergangenheitsorientierte Voraussagemethoden aus, die destabilisierend wirken können. Nur dann, wenn frühere Generationen die Art und Weise wie sie prognostizierten bereuen, werden die Akteure kompliziertere, zukunftsgerichtete, Prognoseinstrumente wählen, welche die Zyklen dämpfen. Damit werden leicht verfügbare Informationen über Arbeitsmarktentwicklungen zur Schlüsselvariablen für konstante Zugänge zu Fachhochschulen und Universitäten, aber auch anderen Bildungsträgern." (Autorenreferat

Investigating IS Student Retention Factors

Student retention represents a continuous challenge that institutions attempt to address (Braxton, Bray, and Berger, 2000). In addition, the business community faces the problem of finding the talented workforce to fill the growing amount of open IT positions. In order to attract students to IT field, it is important to examine students’ motivation in choosing a major and their retention intention. In this study we surveyed literature on student retention and consult faculty’s view on IS enrollment issues. We contribute to the literature in the following ways: 1) develop IS student retention factors, 2) discuss the implication of IS student retention factors, 3) serve as a tool to assess IS students retention rate

Education Reform for the Digital Era

Will the digital-learning movement repeat the mistakes of the charter-school movement? How much more successful might today's charter universe look if yesterday's proponents had focused on the policies and practices needed to ensure its quality, freedom, and resources over the long term? What mistakes might have been avoided? Damaging scandals forestalled? Missed opportunities seized

The future skill-sets expectations of IT graduates in Malaysia IT outsourcing industry

The issue of IT outsourcing (ITO) impact on IT workforce has been at the forefront agenda of many discussions in many developed countries so much so that the concerns have been tense in that more IT jobs will be transferred to developing countries which provide IT outsourcing services. In addition, with the growth of IT outsourcing and emerging new outsourcing business models such as utility demand, application service provider, business process outsourcing, offshore outsourcing and many more servicing different industry vertical sectors increase the demand for multiple IT skills and capabilities of IT workforce. In this study, we review relevant literature, newspapers and non-academic articles, websites of companies, governments and non-governmental organisations and others. An outsourcing Malaysia (OM) CEO roundtable discussion was also held to hear the practitioners' views on the topic. Further to that, we sought in-depth insights from seven senior executive managements in service provider firms on the skill sets requirements of fresh IT graduates to fulfill the market needs of IT outsourcing in Malaysia. The four-member research team found that technical, soft and problem-solving skills are the main concerns raised by the key informants. This is in line with the literature review and also the present higher education policy concerns by the Malaysia government

Evaluating the impact of conditional cash transfer programs : lessons from Latin America

Unlike most development initiatives, conditional cash transfer programs recently introduced in the Latin America and the Caribbean region have been subject to rigorous evaluations of their effectiveness. These programs provide money to poor families, conditional on certain behavior, usually investments in human capital-such as sending children to school or bringing them to health centers on a regular basis. Rawlings and Rubio review the experience in evaluating the impact of these programs, exploring the application of experimental and quasi-experimental evaluation methods and summarizing results from programs launched in Brazil, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, and Nicaragua. Evaluation results from the first generation of programs in Brazil, Mexico, and Nicaragua show that conditional cash transfer programs are effective in promoting human capital accumulation among poor households. There is clear evidence of success in increasing enrollment rates, improving preventive health care, and raising household consumption. Despite this promising evidence, many questions remain unanswered about the impact of conditional cash transfer programs, including those concerning their effectiveness under different country conditions and the sustainability of the welfare impacts.Public Health Promotion,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Systems Development&Reform,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Poverty Assessment,Health Systems Development&Reform

Revising the Georgia Tech Strategic Plan

Speech given to the Georgia Tech Advisory Board