Cambodia's Persistent Dollarization: Causes and Policy Options

Cambodia's economic and social achievements over the past ten years have been the most impressive in its history. Nevertheless, Cambodia today is still as dollarized, if not more so, than it was ten years ago. What is this so, and what, if anything, should the Government do? This paper attempts to answer both these questions, by examining the reasons behind the apparent paradox between a decade of economic and political improvements and continued dollarization, and drawing policy implications from it. We advise against pursuing enforced dedollarization, and advocate a policy option that focuses instead on accelerating accommodative reforms, especially in the financial sector and on legal and institutional reforms. We also identify a host of institutional barriers that need to be overcome to prepare the groundwork for a natural process of de-dollarization.Cambodia; dollarization; exchange rates; currency board; hysteresis

Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: The Case of East Asia

This paper examines whether increasing trade intensity among East Asian countries has led to a synchronization of business cycles. It extends the work of Shin and Wang (2004) in two ways: by (i) improving the specification of their business cycle correlation equation, and (ii) extending the sample to cover the period after the Asian financial crisis. The study finds that intra-industry trade, rather than inter-industry trade, is the major factor explaining business cycle co-movements in East Asia, with important implications for the prospects for a single currency in the region.economic integration; trade intensity; intra-industry trade; business cycle synchronization; East Asia

Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?

This paper investigates the effect of trade integration on military conflict. Our empirical analysis,based on a large panel data set of 290,040 country-pair observations from 1950 to 2000, confirms that an increase in bilateral trade interdependence and global trade openness significantly promotes peace. It also suggests that the effect of trade openness varies depending on the geographical proximity of countries. The peace-promotion effect of bilateral trade integration is significantly higher for contiguous countries that are likely to experience more conflicts. The analysis shows, however, that an increase in global trade openness reduces the probability of conflict more for countries far apart from each other than it does for countries sharing borders. The results also show that military conflict between countries significantly reduces not only bilateral trade interdependence but also multilateral trade integration. The main finding of the peace-promotion effect of bilateral and global trade integration holds robust when controlling for the natural and geopolitical characteristics of dyads of states that may influence the probability of military conflict and for the simultaneous determination of trade and peace.Trade; Globalization; Military conflict; Peace

What Drives Different Types of Capital Flows and Their Volatilities in Developing Asia?

Understanding the determinants of capital inflows is essential to designing an effective policy framework to manage volatile capital flows and their disruptive potential. This paper aims to identify factors that explain the size and volatility of various types of capital flows to developing Asia with regard to other emerging market economies. The estimates for a panel dataset show that per capita income growth, trade openness, and change in stock market capitalization are important determinants of capital inflows to developing Asia. Trade openness increases the volatility of all types of capital inflows, while change in stock market capitalization, global liquidity growth, and institutional quality lowers the volatility. A regional factor plays an important role in determining the size and volatility of capital inflows in emerging Europe and merging Latin America, suggesting that regional economic cooperation and policy coordination may be an important element in designing a policy framework to manage capital inflows in merging economies.capital flows; volatility of capital flows; panel data; developing Asia; push and pull factors

Liberalizing Cross-Border Capital Flows: How Effective Are Institutional Arrangements against Crisis in Southeast Asia

This paper examines capital controls in two ways. First, it assesses whether capital controls have an economic justification within the context of an economyâÂÂs and, in particular, its financial sectorâÂÂs stage of development. It concludes that capital controls can be justified in countries with an immature financial sector and macroeconomic imbalances. Second, it presents survey of current capital controls in ASEAN+3. It identifies three avenues for making controls more efficient: (i) a tax on capital inflows, or alternatively, a Tobin tax; (ii) a replacement of extensive administrative controls with stricter prudential standards for financial institutions; and (iii) a special treatment for Asian currency unit (ACU) operations, implying selective capital flow liberalization.Economic integration; capital controls; Southeast Asia; ASEAN+3

ASEAN-5 Macroeconomic Forecasting Using a GVAR Model

This paper examines and evaluates macroeconomic forecasts for the original ASEAN-5 members in the context of a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model covering 20 countries, grouped into nine countries/regions. After estimating the GVAR model, we generate 12 one-quarter-ahead forecasts for the next quarter including real GDP, inflation, short-term interest rates, real exchange rates, and real equity prices over the period 2009Q1–2011Q4, with four out-of-sample forecasts over the period 2009Q1–2009Q4. Forecast evaluation results based on the panel Diebold-Mariano (DM) tests show the GVAR forecasts tend to outperform forecasts based on the benchmark country-specific models, especially for short-term interest rates and real equity prices, emphasizing the interdependencies in the global financial market.Macroeconomic Forecasting; Global vector autoregressive model (GVAR); Southeast Asia

Methods for Ex Post Economic Evaluation of Free Trade Agreements

Evaluating the economic impact of an FTA is an important part of the monitoring and surveying process that should follow the establishment of an FTA. This paper presents methods for evaluating the trade and welfare effects of an FTA. These methods show how to (i) compute indicators for the utilization and value of preferences, (ii) qualitatively assess trade creation and diversion, (iii) quantitatively analyze the FTA‘s trade effects with trade indicators and the gravity model, and (iv) make inferences about economic welfare. This paper specifies the formulas, computational techniques, and data used for each evaluation method, and describes how to interpret the output from each method with examples taken from countries such as Viet Nam, Indonesia, and Cambodia. The strengths and limitations of each method are also discussed.regionalization; evaluation methods; preferential tariffs; trade indicators; gravity model; free trade agreements; Asia

The Building Block versus Stumbling Block Debate of Regionalism: From the Perspective of Service Trade Liberalization in Asia

When debating the pros and cons of economic regionalism, haven't we focused enough on trade in goods at the expense of services? This article argues that regionalism is certainly a building block, not a stumbling block to a multilateral trading system, using the services liberalization scheme of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a case study. At the same time, it is critical to set out a proper institutional arrangement to ensure that regional services liberalization initiatives reinforce the global services regime. This paper proposes an amendment of the current GATS Article V to define the appropriate relationship between multilateralism and regionalism in the context of services.GATS; AFAS; ASEAN; services; regionalism; free trade; economic integration

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Markets in Small Open Economies: More or Less Effective During the Global Financial Crisis?

This paper estimates the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates and stock markets for eight small open economies: Australia, Canada, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. On average across these countries, a one percentage point surprise rise in official interest rates leads to a 1% appreciation of the exchange rate and a 1% fall in stock market indices. The effect on exchange rates is notably weaker in the non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries with a managed float. For the OECD countries, there is no robust evidence of a change in the effect of policy during the global financial crisis. For the non-OECD countries, there is some evidence of a stronger effect of policy on stock markets during the crisis, although further research is needed to investigate whether this is a result of measurement issues.Monetary policy effectiveness; exchange rate; stock prices; crisis; Asian economies

Taking advantage of online communities for generating innovative ideas

The use of the internet for business purposes and among consumers is spreading at an impressive rate. Companies use it for a lot of different activities like, for example, marketing, online shopping and customer service. However, the use of the internet for the purpose of innovation, to create ideas and concepts, is still underdeveloped. Practical experience shows that online communities are suitable for developing innovative ideas with users. To gain a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms we have taken a case-study approach. Based on this we generate a set of propositions concerning characteristics that a community should have in order to foster innovativeness. Our findings show that communities should be social, access should be restricted and it is necessary that users are free to post critical messages. Furthermore, the threads should be organised to create a lively discussion and users have to be able to build-up reputation. --internet , online communities