Demographic vital rates and population growth: rethinking the relationship in a harvested elk population

Understanding the nature of the relationship between demographic vital rates and the rate of population change (λ) is important for determining effective strategies for population management and conservation. We examined the relative impacts of various demographic vital rates on λ within the range of temporal vital rate variability observed in a harvested population to test the hypotheses that adult survival rates in ungulates are relatively invariant when compared to other vital rates and that variability in calf survival has a greater influence on rates of population change than adult survival. Vital rates were estimated for an elk (_Cervus elaphus_) population at Fort Riley, Kansas from October 2003 – February 2007. The magnitude of adult survival rates were similar to other harvested populations and models including a negative relationship between survival and age received the highest levels of support. Prime-age adult survival had the highest stage-specific elasticity values, indicating a high contribution of these matrix elements to λ. Life-stage simulation analysis indicated that variation in calf survival had the highest correlation with variation in λ (r^2^ = 0.61). Our results suggest that adult survival rates in harvested populations may experience increased levels of variability, but that calf survival rates have the greatest relative influence on λ due to the wider range of variability observed for this vital rate

A Comparative demography of plants based upon elasticities of vital rates

Elasticities of matrix elements from population projection matrices are commonly used to analyze the relative contributions of different life history transitions (birth, survival, growth) to the finite rate of increase (lambda). Hitherto, comparative demography based on matrix models has relied upon decomposing elasticity matrices into blocks, each containing matrix elements deemed to represent recruitment, stasis, or progression to larger size classes. Elasticities across an entire matrix always sum to unity, and different populations and species can be compared on the basis of the relative proportions of these three variables. This method has been widely used, but it contains a weakness in that the value of matrix elements is a function of more than one vital rate. For example, transitions representing progression to larger size classes involve a survival rate as well as a growth rate. Ideally, then, demographic comparisons between populations should be made using elasticities of vital rates themselves, rather than elasticities of matrix elements that are compounds of those rates. Here, we employ the complete set of general equations for the elasticity of vital rates in an entirely new analysis of matrices for 102 species of perennial plants. The results show a surprising similarity to an earlier analysis based upon matrix element elasticity and provide important confirmation of general patterns of correlation between plant life history and demography. In addition, we show that individual vital rate elasticities cannot, on their own, predict variation in life history. Therefore, all three demographic processes (survival, growth, and reproduction) are necessary to account for life history variation. The new analysis provides a firmer foundation for comparative demography

Invasion speeds for structured populations in fluctuating environments

We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly variable environments will be estimates of their rates of spatial spread and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Using stochastic, stage-structured, integro-difference equation models, we show analytically that invasion speeds are asymptotically normally distributed with a variance that decreases in time. We apply our methods to a simple juvenile-adult model with stochastic variation in reproduction and an illustrative example with published data for the perennial herb, \emph{Calathea ovandensis}. These examples buttressed by additional analysis reveal that increased variability in vital rates simultaneously slow down invasions yet generate greater uncertainty about rates of spatial spread. Moreover, while temporal autocorrelations in vital rates inflate variability in invasion speeds, the effect of these autocorrelations on the average invasion speed can be positive or negative depending on life history traits and how well vital rates ``remember'' the past

Contrasts in Vital Rates: Madras and Punjab in the Colonial Period

It is well known that there have been persistent differences in demographic rates between northern and southern areas in post-independence India: in the north marital fertility is higher, infant mortality higher and life expectancy shorter than in the south. As Tim Dyson has shown for infant mortality, this probably has pre-independence origins. In this paper the post-WWII contrasts in demographic performances between north and south India will be traced back to the colonial period. By choosing Madras and Punjab, by selecting districts whose registration statistics are reasonably usable in each province (Madras: Coimbatore, Salem, North Arcot, South Arcot, and Tilnelvelli; Punjab: Gurdaspur, Jallundur, Amritsar, Hoshiarpur, Ferozepore, and Ambala, Karnal and Rohtak), and then by adopting W. Brass's relational Gompertz fertility model, logit life-table system and growth balance method, as exemplified by Dyson's seminal work on Berar, we estimate annual series of e0 and TFR for both provinces. The series clearly show that even in the colonial period both fertility and mortality were higher in the north than in the south, which will have wider implications in historical contexts.

A new method to quantify and compare the multiple components of fitness-A study case with kelp niche partition by divergent microstage adaptations to Temperature

Point 1 Management of crops, commercialized or protected species, plagues or life-cycle evolution are subjects requiring comparisons among different demographic strategies. The simpler methods fail in relating changes in vital rates with changes in population viability whereas more complex methods lack accuracy by neglecting interactions among vital rates. Point 2 The difference between the fitness (evaluated by the population growth rate.) of two alternative demographies is decomposed into the contributions of the differences between the pair-wised vital rates and their interactions. This is achieved through a full Taylor expansion (i.e. remainder = 0) of the demographic model. The significance of each term is determined by permutation tests under the null hypothesis that all demographies come from the same pool. Point 3 An example is given with periodic demographic matrices of the microscopic haploid phase of two kelp cryptic species observed to partition their niche occupation along the Chilean coast. The method provided clear and synthetic results showing conditional differentiation of reproduction is an important driver for their differences in fitness along the latitudinal temperature gradient. But it also demonstrated that interactions among vital rates cannot be neglected as they compose a significant part of the differences between demographies. Point 4 This method allows researchers to access the effects of multiple effective changes in a life-cycle from only two experiments. Evolutionists can determine with confidence the effective causes for changes in fitness whereas population managers can determine best strategies from simpler experimental designs.CONICYT-FRENCH EMBASSADY Ph.D. gran

Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy 1650-1881

Recent empirical research has questioned the validity of using Malthusian theory in pre-industrial England. Using real wage and vital rate data for the years 1650-1881, I provide empirical estimates for a different region { Northern Italy. The empirical methodology is theoretically underpinned by a simple Malthusian model, in which population, real wages and vital rates are determined endogenously. My findings strongly support the existence of a `Malthusian' economy where population growth depressed living standards, which in turn influenced vital rates. In addition, I find no evidence of Boseru- pian effects as increases in population failed to spur sustained technological growth.Economic History, Demographic Economics

Ecological equivalence: a realistic assumption for niche theory as a testable alternative to neutral theory

Hubbell's 2001 neutral theory unifies biodiversity and biogeography by modelling steady-state distributions of species richness and abundances across spatio-temporal scales. Accurate predictions have issued from its core premise that all species have identical vital rates. Yet no ecologist believes that species are identical in reality. Here I explain this paradox in terms of the ecological equivalence that species must achieve at their coexistence equilibrium, defined by zero net fitness for all regardless of intrinsic differences between them. I show that the distinction of realised from intrinsic vital rates is crucial to evaluating community resilience. An analysis of competitive interactions reveals how zero-sum patterns of abundance emerge for species with contrasting life-history traits as for identical species. I develop a stochastic model to simulate community assembly from a random drift of invasions sustaining the dynamics of recruitment following deaths and extinctions. Species are allocated identical intrinsic vital rates for neutral dynamics, or random intrinsic vital rates and competitive abilities for niche dynamics either on a continuous scale or between dominant-fugitive extremes. Resulting communities have steady-state distributions of the same type for more or less extremely differentiated species as for identical species. All produce negatively skewed log-normal distributions of species abundance, zero-sum relationships of total abundance to area, and Arrhenius relationships of species to area. Intrinsically identical species nevertheless support fewer total individuals, because their densities impact as strongly on each other as on themselves. Truly neutral communities have measurably lower abundance/area and higher species/abundance ratios. Neutral scenarios can be parameterized as null hypotheses for testing competitive release, which is a sure signal of niche dynamics. Ignoring the true strength of interactions between and within species risks a substantial misrepresentation of community resilience to habitat los

Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts

Probabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts. Another (we call it RS) began as a kind of randomized scenario: we consider its simplest variant, in which expert opinion is used to make probability distributions for terminal vital rates, and smooth trajectories are followed over time. We use analysis and examples to show several key differences between these methods: serial correlations in the forecast are much smaller in LT; the variance in LT models of vital rates (especially fertility)is much higher than in RS models that are based on official expert scenarios; trajectories in LT are much more irregular than in RS; probability intervals in LT tend to widen faster over forecast time. Newer versions of RS have been developed that reduce or eliminate some of these differences.

Age-specific growth, reproductive values, and intrinsic r

The age-specific growth function of an observed population and the reproductive value function based on the population´s current vital rates determine the intrinsic rate of growth implied by those vital rates through the simple relationship given in equation (1). That equation establishes the analytical significance of age-specific growth, and leads to relationships that quantify a population´s approach to stability and that specify the extraordinarily close connection between reproductive values and population momentum.age-specific growth, intrinsic r, population momentum, reproductive value, stable equivalent, stable population

Investigation of temperature dependence of development and aging

Temperature dependence of maturation and metabolic rates in insects, and the failure of vital processes during development were investigated. The paper presented advances the general hypothesis that aging in biological systems is a consequence of the production of entropy concomitant with metabolic activity