Species distribution models

Species distribution models are a group of methods often used to estimate consequences of global change, to assess ecological status and for other ecological applications. The main idea behind species distribution models is that the geographical distributions of species can, to a large part, be explained by environmental factors and that species distributions therefore can be predicted in time or space. For robust and reliable applications, models need to be based on sound ecological principles, predictions need to be as accurate as possible, and model uncertainties need to be understood. Two approaches are available for modelling entire species communities: (1) each species can be modelled individually and independently of other species or (2) community information can be incorporated into the models. The first study in this thesis compares these two modelling approaches for predicting phytoplankton assemblages in lakes. The results showed that predictive accuracy was higher when species were modelled individually. The results also showed that phytoplankton can be used for model-based assessment of ecological status. This finding is important because phytoplankton is required for assessing the ecological status of European water bodies according to the European Water Framework Directive. Dispersal barriers in the landscape or limited dispersal ability of species might be a reason for species being absent from suitable habitats, and these factors might therefore affect model accuracy. The second study in this thesis examines the influence of dispersal and the spatial configuration of ecosystems on prediction accuracy of benthic invertebrate and phytoplankton distribution and assemblage composition. The results showed only a minor influence of spatial configuration and no effect of flight ability of invertebrates on model accuracy. However, the models used may partly account for dispersal constraints, since dispersal-related factors, such as lake surface area, are included as predictor variables. The result also showed that composition of littoral invertebrate assemblages was easier to predict at sites located in well-connected lake systems, possibly because the relatively unstable littoral zone necessitates a need for species to re-colonize disturbed habitats from source populations

Species lifetime distribution for simple models of ecologies

Interpretation of empirical results based on a taxa's lifetime distribution shows apparently conflicting results. Species' lifetime is reported to be exponentially distributed, whereas higher order taxa, such as families or genera, follow a broader distribution, compatible with power law decay. We show that both these evidences are consistent with a simple evolutionary model that does not require specific assumptions on species interaction. The model provides a zero-order description of the dynamics of ecological communities and its species lifetime distribution can be computed exactly. Different behaviors are found: an initial $t^{-3/2}$ power law, emerging from a random walk type of dynamics, which crosses over to a steeper $t^{-2}$ branching process-like regime and finally is cutoff by an exponential decay which becomes weaker and weaker as the total population increases. Sampling effects can also be taken into account and shown to be relevant: if species in the fossil record were sampled according to the Fisher log-series distribution, lifetime should be distributed according to a $t^{-1}$ power law. Such variability of behaviors in a simple model, combined with the scarcity of data available, cast serious doubts on the possibility to validate theories of evolution on the basis of species lifetime data.Comment: 19 pages, 2 figure

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

Modelling the distribution of the invasive Roesel’s bushcricket (Metrioptera roeselii) in a fragmented landscape

The development of conservation strategies to mitigate the impact of invasive species requires knowledge of the species ecology and distribution. This is, however, often lacking as collecting biological data may be both time-consuming and resource intensive. Species distribution models can offer a solution to this dilemma by analysing the species-environment relationship with help of Geographic information systems (GIS). In this study, we model the distribution of the non-native bush-cricket Metrioptera roeselii in the agricultural landscape in mid-Sweden where the species has been rapidly expanding in its range since the 1990s. We extract ecologically relevant landscape variables from Swedish CORINE land-cover maps and use species presence-absence data from large-scale surveys to construct a species distribution model (SDM). The aim of the study is to increase the knowledge of the species range expansion pattern by examining how its distribution is affected by landscape composition and structure, and to evaluate SDM performance at two different spatial scales. We found that models including data on a scale of 1 × 1 km were able to explain more of the variation in species distribution than those on the local scale (10 m buffer on each side of surveyed road). The amount of grassland in the landscape, estimated from the area of arable land, pasture and rural settlements, was a good predictor of the presence of the species on both scales. The measurements of landscape structure – linear elements and fragmentation - gave ambivalent results which differed from previous small scaled studies on species dispersal behaviour and occupancy patterns. The models had good predictive ability and showed that areas dominated by agricultural fields and their associated grassland edges have a high probability being colonised by the species. Our study identified important landscape variables that explain the distribution of M. roeselii in Mid-Sweden that may also be important to other range expanding orthopteran species. This work will serve as a foundation for future analyses of species spread and ecological processes during range expansion

Combining local- and large-scale models to predict the distributions of invasive plant species

Habitat-distribution models are increasingly used to predict the potential distributions of invasive species and to inform monitoring. However, these models assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment, which is clearly not true for most invasive species. Although this assumption is frequently acknowledged, solutions have not been adequately addressed. There are several potential methods for improving habitat-distribution models. Models that require only presence data may be more effective for invasive species, but this assumption has rarely been tested. In addition, combining modeling types to form ‘ensemble’ models may improve the accuracy of predictions. However, even with these improvements, models developed for recently invaded areas are greatly influenced by the current distributions of species and thus reflect near- rather than long-term potential for invasion. Larger scale models from species’ native and invaded ranges may better reflect long-term invasion potential, but they lack finer scale resolution. We compared logistic regression (which uses presence/absence data) and two presence-only methods for modeling the potential distributions of three invasive plant species on the Olympic Peninsula in Washington State, USA. We then combined the three methods to create ensemble models. We also developed climate-envelope models for the same species based on larger scale distributions and combined models from multiple scales to create an index of near- and long-term invasion risk to inform monitoring in Olympic National Park (ONP). Neither presence-only nor ensemble models were more accurate than logistic regression for any of the species. Larger scale models predicted much greater areas at risk of invasion. Our index of near- and long-term invasion risk indicates that \u3c4% of ONP is at high near-term risk of invasion while 67-99% of the Park is at moderate or high long-term risk of invasion. We demonstrate how modeling results can be used to guide the design of monitoring protocols and monitoring results can in turn be used to refine models. We propose that by using models from multiple scales to predict invasion risk and by explicitly linking model development to monitoring, it may be possible to overcome some of the limitations of habitat-distribution models

Past and present potential distribution of the Iberian Abies species: A phytogeographic approach using pollen data and species distribution models

This is the accepted version of the following article: Alba-Sánchez, F., López-Sáez, J. A., Pando, B. B.-d., Linares, J. C., Nieto-Lugilde, D. and López-Merino, L. (2010), Past and present potential distribution of the Iberian Abies species: a phytogeographic approach using fossil pollen data and species distribution models. Diversity and Distributions, 16: 214–228, which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00636.x/abstract.Aim - Quaternary palaeopalynological records collected throughout the Iberian Peninsula and species distribution models (SDMs) were integrated to gain a better understanding of the historical biogeography of the Iberian Abies species (i.e. Abies pinsapo and Abies alba). We hypothesize that SDMs and Abies palaeorecords are closely correlated, assuming a certain stasis in climatic and topographic ecological niche dimensions. In addition, the modelling results were used to assign the fossil records to A. alba or A. pinsapo, to identify environmental variables affecting their distribution, and to evaluate the ecological segregation between the two taxa. Location - The Iberian Peninsula. Methods - For the estimation of past Abies distributions, a hindcasting process was used. Abies pinsapo and A. alba were modelled individually, first calibrating the model for their current distributions in relation to the present climate, and then projecting it into the past—the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the Middle Holocene periods—in relation to palaeoclimate simulations. The resulting models were compared with Iberian-wide fossil pollen records to detect areas of overlap. Results - The overlap observed between past Abies refugia—inferred from fossil pollen records—and the SDMs helped to construct the Quaternary distribution of the Iberian Abies species. SDMs yielded two well-differentiated potential distributions: A. pinsapo throughout the Baetic mountain Range and A. alba along the Pyrenees and Cantabrian Range. These results propose that the two taxa remained isolated throughout the Quaternary, indicating a significant geographical and ecological segregation. In addition, no significant differences were detected comparing the three projections (present-day, Mid-Holocene and LGM), suggesting a relative climate stasis in the refuge areas during the Quaternary. Main conclusions - Our results confirm that SDM projections can provide a useful complement to palaeoecological studies, offering a less subjective and spatially explicit hypothesis concerning past geographic patterns of Iberian Abies species. The integration of ecological-niche characteristics from known occurrences of Abies species in conjunction with palaeoecological studies could constitute a suitable tool to define appropriate areas in which to focus proactive conservation strategies.The Andalusian Innovation, Science, and Industry Regional Ministry and the National Plan of the Spanish Government