Development and validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT).

Existing risk stratification tools have limitations and clinical experience suggests they are not used routinely. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a preoperative risk stratification tool to predict 30-day mortality after non-cardiac surgery in adults by analysis of data from the observational National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) Knowing the Risk study

Factors associated with prolonged length of stay following cardiac surgery in a major referral hospital in Oman: a retrospective observational study

Two objectives were set for this study. The first was to identify factors influencing prolonged postoperative length of stay (LOS) following cardiac surgery. The second was to devise a predictive model for prolonged LOS in the cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) based on preoperative factors available at admission and to compare it against two existing cardiac stratification systems.Observational retrospective study.A tertiary hospital in Oman.All adult patients who underwent cardiac surgery at a major referral hospital in Oman between 2009 and 2013.30.5% of the patients had prolonged LOS (≥11 days) after surgery, while 17% experienced prolonged ICU LOS (≥5 days). Factors that were identified to prolong CICU LOS were non-elective surgery, current congestive heart failure (CHF), renal failure, combined coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) and valve surgery, and other non-isolated valve or CABG surgery. Patients were divided into three groups based on their scores. The probabilities of prolonged CICU LOS were 11%, 26% and 28% for group 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The predictive model had an area under the curve of 0.75. Factors associated with prolonged overall postoperative LOS included the body mass index, the type of surgery, cardiopulmonary bypass machine use, packed red blood cells use, non-elective surgery and number of complications. The latter was the most important determinant of postoperative LOS.Patient management can be tailored for individual patient based on their treatments and personal attributes to optimise resource allocation. Moreover, a simple predictive score system to enable identification of patients at risk of prolonged CICU stay can be developed using data that are routinely collected by most hospitals

Non-Linear Heart Rate Variability and Risk Stratification in Cardiovascular Disease

Traditional time and frequency domain heart rate variability (HRV) have cardiac patients at risk of mortality post-myocardial infarction. More recently, non linear HRV has been applied to risk stratification of cardiac patients. In this review we describe studies of non linear HRV and outcome in cardiac patients. We have included studies that used the three most common non-linear indices: power law slope, the short term fractal scaling exponent and measures based on Poincaré plots. We suggest that a combination of traditional and non-linear HRV may be optimal for risk stratification. Considerations in using non linear HRV in a clinical setting are described

Does the revised cardiac risk index predict cardiac complications following elective lung resection?

Background: Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) score and Thoracic Revised Cardiac Risk Index (ThRCRI) score were developed to predict the risks of postoperative major cardiac complications in generic surgical population and thoracic surgery respectively. This study aims to determine the accuracy of these scores in predicting the risk of developing cardiac complications including atrial arrhythmias after lung resection surgery in adults. Methods: We studied 703 patients undergoing lung resection surgery in a tertiary thoracic surgery centre. Observed outcome measures of postoperative cardiac morbidity and mortality were compared against those predicted by risk. Results: Postoperative major cardiac complications and supraventricular arrhythmias occurred in 4.8% of patients. Both index scores had poor discriminative ability for predicting postoperative cardiac complications with an area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.59 (95% CI 0.51-0.67) for the RCRI score and 0.57 (95% CI 0.49-0.66) for the ThRCRI score. Conclusions: In our cohort, RCRI and ThRCRI scores failed to accurately predict the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing elective resection of lung cancer. The British Thoracic Society (BTS) recommendation to seek a cardiology referral for all asymptomatic pre-operative lung resection patients with > 3 RCRI risk factors is thus unlikely to be of clinical benefit

The utility of B-type natriuretic peptide in predicting postoperative cardiac events and mortality in patients undergoing major emergency non-cardiac surgery

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels predict cardiovascular risk in several settings. We hypothesized that they would identify individuals at increased risk of complications and mortality following major emergency non-cardiac surgery.Forty patients were studied with a primary end-point of a new post-operative cardiac event, and/or development of significant ECG changes, and/or cardiac death. The main secondary outcome was all cause mortality at 6 months. Preoperative BNP levels were higher in 11 patients who suffered a new postoperative cardiac event (p=0.001) and predicted this outcome with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85 (CI=0.72-0.98,p=0.001). A pre-operative BNP value >170pg.ml-1 has a sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 79% for the primary end-point. In this small study, pre-operative BNP levels identify patients undergoing major emergency non-cardiac surgery who are at increased risk of early post-operative cardiac events. Larger studies are required to confirm these data.Peer reviewedPreprin

Sudden cardiac death in patients with ischemic heart failure undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting results from the STICH randomized clinical trial (Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure)

Background—The risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with heart failure following CABG has not been examined in a contemporary clinical trial of surgical revascularization. This analysis describes the incidence, timing and clinical predictors of SCD after CABG. Methods—Patients enrolled in the Surgical Treatment of Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) trial who underwent CABG with or without surgical ventricular reconstruction (SVR) were included. We excluded patients with prior ICD and those randomized only to medical therapy. The primary outcome was SCD as adjudicated by a blinded committee. A Cox model was used to examine and identify predictors of SCD. The Fine and Gray method was used to estimate the incidence of SCD accounting for the competing risk of other deaths. Results—Over a median follow-up of 46 months, 113 patients of 1411 patients who received CABG without (n = 934) or with SVR (n = 477) had SCD; 311 died of other causes. The mean LVEF at enrollment was 28±9%. The 5-year cumulative incidence of SCD was 8.5%. Patients who had SCD and those who did not die were younger and had fewer comorbid conditions than those who died for reasons other than SCD. In the first 30 days after CABG, SCD (n=5) accounted for 7% of all deaths. The numerically greatest monthly rate of SCD was in the 31-90 day time period. In a multivariable analysis including baseline demographics, risk factors, coronary anatomy and LV function, ESVI and BNP were most strongly associated with SCD. Conclusions—The monthly risk of SCD shortly after CABG among patients with a low LVEF is highest between the first and third month, suggesting that risk stratification for SCD should occur early in the postoperative period, particularly in patients with increased preoperative ESVI and/or BNP

Biomarkers in acute coronary syndromes and their role in diabetic patients

Diabetic patients with acute coronary syndromes are at high risk for cardiovascular complications but risk stratification in these patients remains challenging. Regularly, diabetic patients have a less typical clinical presentation, which could lead to delayed diagnosis and subsequent delayed initiation of treatment. Since diabetic patients derive particular benefit from aggressive anti-platelet therapy, early diagnostic and therapeutic risk stratification of these patients is of critical importance to improve their adverse outcome. Although the electrocardiogram remains a pivotal diagnostic tool in the evaluation of patients suspected of having an acute coronary syndrome, only significant STsegment changes provide reasonable prognostic information. Therefore, repeated assessment of circulating protein biomarkers represents a valuable diagnostic tool for improving efficacy and safety of decision-making in these patients. The combined use of biomarkers reflecting distinct pathophysiological aspects, such as myocardial necrosis, vascular inflammation, oxidative stress and neurohumoral activation, may significantly improve triage of patients with chest pain. These tools may identify those patients that are at particularly high risk for short-term and/or long-term cardiovascular events. Eventually, tailored medical and interventional treatment of diabetic patients should help to prevent these cardiac events in a cost-effective manner

Estimation of ejection fraction with ventriculography versus echocardiography in patients referred for cardiac surgery

Abstract: Aim: The aim of this study was to compare the estimation of ejection fraction (EF) by ventricuography (VG) and echocardiography (ECHO) in patients referred for surgery and to validate the results by comparison with other published data. Methods: One hundred patients who underwent VG prior to surgery were subjected to a trans-thoracic ECHO. Radiographers calculated the EF by tracing the outer border of the ventriculogram during systole and diastole. A single cardiologist, who was blinded to the angiogram result, measured EF during trans-thoracic ECHO using the biplane Simpson’s method. Results: EF was significantly higher by VG versus ECHO for the whole group (67.9±13.2 vs 55.7±8.5, p=0.000). In 81 patients the EF estimated at VG was higher than that calculated at ECHO (71.7±10.2 vs 55.9±7.2, p=0.000). In 19 patients the EF estimated at VG was lower than that calculated at ECHO, but the difference was not significant (51.8±12.9 by VG vs 55.4±12.8, p=0.387). In 13 patients, with an EF less than 50% on VG, the correlation with ECHO was very good (42.0±9.0 vs 42.0±8.3, p=0.995). Two patients with an EF fraction under 30% had similar measurements by VG and ECHO. The EF range as measured by ECHO was consistent with published data. Conclusion: Ventriculography overestimates EF when compared with ECHO. When EF is less than 50% on VG, ECHO findings were similar. The value of ventriculography in patients referred for cardiac surgery is now being brought into question when ECHO, a better and less invasive test that measures EF, is available.peer-reviewe