239,938 research outputs found

    Interest rate smoothing

    Get PDF
    Interest rates ; Monetary policy - United States

    Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability

    Get PDF
    The existing literature on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate feedback rules has stressed the perils of linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. In response to this concern, a growing literature has focused on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has emerged is that backward-looking rules contribute to protecting the economy from embarking on expectations-driven fluctuations. A common characteristic of the existing studies that arrive at this conclusion is their focus on local analysis. The contribution of this paper is to conduct a more global analysis. We find that backward-looking interest-rate feedback rules do not guarantee uniqueness of equilibrium. We present examples in which for plausible parameterizations attracting equilibrium cycles exist. The paper also contributes to the quest for policy rules that guarantee macroeconomic stability globally. Our analysis indicates that policy rules whereby the interest rate is set as a function of the past interest rate and current inflation are likely to ensure global stability provided that the coefficient on lagged interest rates is greater than unity.Backward looking Taylor rules, endogenous cycles, sticky prices

    Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability

    Get PDF
    The existing literature on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate feedback rules has stressed the perils of linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. In response to this concern, a growing literature has focused on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has emerged is that backward-looking rules contribute to protecting the economy from embarking on expectations-driven fluctuations. A common characteristic of the existing studies that arrive at this conclusion is their focus on local analysis. The contribution of this paper is to conduct a more global analysis. We find that backward-looking interest-rate feedback rules do not guarantee uniqueness of equilibrium. We present examples in which for plausible parameterizations attracting equilibrium cycles exist. The paper also contributes to the quest for policy rules that guarantee macroeconomic stability globally. Our analysis indicates that policy rules whereby the interest rate is set as a function of the past interest rate and current inflation are likely to ensure global stability provided that the coefficient on lagged interest rates is greater than unity.Interest rates

    Impact of bank competition on the interest rate pass-through in the euro area

    Get PDF
    This paper analyses the impact of loan market competition on the interest rates applied by euro area banks to loans and deposits during the 1994-2004 period, using a novel measure of competition called the Boone indicator. We find evidence that stronger competition implies significantly lower spreads between bank and market interest rates for most loan market products, in line with expectations. Using an error correction model (ECM) approach to measure the effect of competition on the pass-through of market rates to bank interest rates, we likewise find that banks tend to price their loans more in accordance with the market in countries where competitive pressures are stronger. Further, where loan market competition is stronger, we observe larger bank spreads (implying lower bank interest rates) on current account and time deposits. This would suggest that the competitive pressure is heavier in the loan market than in the deposit markets, so that banks under competition compensate for their reduction in loan market income by lowering their deposit rates. We observe also that bank interest rates in more competitive markets respond more strongly to changes in market interest rates. These findings have important monetary policy implications, as they suggest that measures to enhance competition in the European banking sector will tend to render the monetary policy transmission mechanism more effective.

    Book review. Interest Rate Modelling

    No full text

    On affine interest rate models

    Full text link
    Bernstein processes are Brownian diffusions that appear in Euclidean Quantum Mechanics. Knowledge of the symmetries of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation associated with these processes allows one to obtain relations between stochastic processes (Lescot-Zambrini, Progress in Probability, vols 58 and 59). More recently it has appeared that each one--factor affine interest rate model (in the sense of Leblanc-Scaillet) could be described using such a Bernstein process

    Adaptive Interest Rate Modelling

    Get PDF
    A good description of the dynamics of interest rates is crucial to price derivatives and to hedge corresponding risk. Interest rate modelling in an unstable macroeconomic context motivates one factor models with time varying parameters. In this paper, the local parameter approach is introduced to adaptively estimate interest rate models. This method can be generally used in time varying coefficient parametric models. It is used not only to detect the jumps and structural breaks, but also to choose the largest time homogeneous interval for each time point, such that in this interval, the coeffcients are statistically constant. We use this adaptive approach and apply it in simulations and real data. Using the three month treasure bill rate as a proxy of the short rate, we nd that our method can detect both structural changes and stable intervals for homogeneous modelling of the interest rate process. In more unstable macroeconomy periods, the time homogeneous interval can not last long. Furthermore, our approach performs well in long horizon forecasting.CIR model, Interest rate, Local parametric approach, Time homogeneous interval, Adaptive statistical techniques
    • …
    corecore