Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 39% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3.1-4. 6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7.2% (6.0-8.4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7.9% (6 6-9. 2) for males and 6.5% (5.4-7.7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-hatin and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

The Incidence and Risk Factor Analysis of Drug Induced Liver Injury (Dili) in a Surabaya Hospital

The research has been conducted on the incident and analysis of risk factors drug liver injury (DILI) in a Surabaya Hospital. The aim of this study was to determine the incident of DILI, know which drugs cause DILI, and see the association of risk factors to DILI. The research method was descriptive and analytical observational (prospective cohort). Danan-Benichou scale is a tool used to ascertain drugs that cause DILI. Based on data collected for 3 months, the population was 1202 patients. Samples fulfilling the inclusion and exclusion criteria were 310 patients, the risk drug group of DILI were 285 patients (11 DILI, 274 Non-DILI), and the non-risk drug group 25 patients (11 DILI, 14 Non-DILI). The incident of DILI was 3.55%. Drugs that cause DILI are ranitidine (4 cases), omeprazole (1 case), rifampicin (2 cases), meropenem (1 case), ciprofloxacin (1 case), methotrexate (1 case), and dexamethasone (1 case). Characteristic of patients with DILI (11 patients) are average age of 59.27 ± 15.54 years (23-73 years), belonging to high risk group (54.55%), male gender (81,82%), have moderate comorbid disease (54.55%), and are not comsumsing alcohol (100%). This research use logistic regression analysis through SPSS 17.0 program to see the relation of risk factor to DILI incident. The p results were obtained from sex (0,156), age (0,534), and comorbid isease (0,213)> α (0,05) which means gender, age, and comorbid disease do not significantly affect the incident of DILI

The Incidence of Repeat Breeding in Dairy Cows Under Tropical Condition

The objective of this study was to investigate the incidence of repeat breeding in dairy cows under tropical condition. This was a preliminary study conducted in Sinjai Regency, Indonesia. A total of 82 Holstein Friesian lactating cows from five dairy farmer groups were used in the present study. Of the 82 cows, 75.6% eventually became pregnant after repeated inseminations (AI). The incidence of repeat breeding in this area was very high (62%). Days in milk (DIM) at first AI, first AI conception rate, and calving to conception interval were 62.5±19.3 days, 0%, and 202.8±150.0 days, respectively. There was no difference in DIM at first AI between repeat breeders and normal fertility cows (60.4±15.2 days vs 68.3±28.6 days). However, normal fertility cows required only 123.3±52.9 days to conceive and 2.4±0.8 inseminations per pregnancy, whereas repeat breeders required significantly more days to conceive (222.9±134.1 days) and more inseminations per pregnancy (4.8±0.9). In conclusion, repeat breeder dairy cows under tropical condition had very poor and reduced reproductive performance

Tax Incidence

This paper surveys major issues in the theory of tax incidence. These include the incidence of taxes in dynamic as well as static economies and open as well as closed economies. The survey does not represent a comprehensive review of the literature, rather it is offered to the reader as a pedoqogical piece that may be of use in teaching the theory of tax incidence.

Tax Incidence

This chapter reviews the concepts, methods, and results of studies that analyze the incidence of taxes. The purpose of such studies is to determine how the burden of a particular tax is allocated among consumers through higher product prices, workers through a lower wage rate, or other factors of production through lower rates of return to those factors. The methods might involve simple partial equilibrium models, analytical general equilibrium models, or computable general equilibrium models. We review partial equilibrium models, where the burden of a tax is shown to depend on the elasticity of supply relative to the elasticity of demand. In particular, we consider partial equilibrium models with imperfect competition. Turning to a general equilibrium setting, we review the classic model of Harberger (1962) and illustrate its generality by applying it to a number of different contexts. We also use this model to demonstrate the practicality of analytical general equilibrium modeling through the use of log linearization techniques. We then turn to dynamic models to show how a tax on capital affects capital accumulation, future wage rates, and overall burdens. Such models might also provide analytical results or computational results. We also focus on relatively recent models that calculate the lifetime incidence of taxes, with both intratemporal and intertemporal redistribution. Finally, the chapter reviews the use of incidence methods and results in the policy process.