Calculating effective gun policies

Following recent shootings in the USA, a debate has erupted, one side favoring stricter gun control, the other promoting protection through more weapons. We provide a scientific foundation to inform this debate, based on mathematical, epidemiological models that quantify the dependence of firearm-related death rates of people on gun policies. We assume a shooter attacking a single individual or a crowd. Two strategies can minimize deaths in the model, depending on parameters: either a ban of private firearms possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. In particular, the outcome depends on the fraction of offenders that illegally possess a gun, on the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and on the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry it with them when attacked, parameters that can be estimated from statistical data. With the measured parameters, the model suggests that if the gun law is enforced at a level similar to that in the United Kingdom, gun-related deaths are minimized if private possession of firearms is banned. If such a policy is not practical or possible due to constitutional or cultural constraints, the model and parameter estimation indicate that a partial reduction in firearm availability can lead to a reduction in gun-induced death rates, even if they are not minimized. Most importantly, our analysis identifies the crucial parameters that determine which policy reduces the death rates, providing guidance for future statistical studies that will be necessary for more refined quantitative predictions

Exploring the Drugs-Homicide Connection

Although research generally assumes a close relationship between drugs and violence, very little is known about the many different roles drugs can play in criminal events. Drug related as an event classification scheme is relatively common in homicide research, as well as other areas of inquiry, and is usually understood to be an important component in the causal processes of criminal events. Yet such classification schemes often suggest a simple, unidimensional construct. In reality, drug-related crimes are com-plex events. The purpose of this researchwas first to disaggregate the concept of drug-related homicide by providing an event classification scheme that conceptualizes the diverse roles drugs play in drug-related events.Acategorical coding scheme is presented that is similar to that proposed by Goldstein (1995) and later tested by Brownstein and colleagues (Brownstein & Goldstein, 1990; Brownstein, Baxi, Goldstein, & Ryan, 1992) that specifies three distinct types of homicide events. Included among these are (a) events that involved no evidence of illicit drugs associated with the homicide event, (b) those that involved the presence of drugs or drug use at the scene as well as events where either the victim and/or offender were buying or selling drugs (we term this peripherally drug-related homicides), and (c) events where the sale or use of drugswas the motivating feature of the homicide event. In some situations, there may be overlap between categories b and c; however, category c is distinct in that it includes features of motivation. The second purpose was to determine the relative importance of various situational and contextual characteristics of homicide events in understanding different types of drug-related events. Delineating these features will be an important step in filling in the gaps of knowledge about the assumed relationship between drugs and violence

Wrath and Relationships: Homicide Weapon Choice and Victim Offender Relationships

The purpose of this study is to examine the influence that victim-offender relationships and the event circumstances have on homicide weapon choice. From Cornish and Clarke’s Rational Choice theoretical perspective, offenders go through decision- making processes to determine which weapon will be the most effective to meet their goal, based on the circumstances of the event. This study examined the use of three weapon types: firearms, knife/ blunt objects, and personal weapons, amongst victim-offender relationships such as acquaintance, intimate, non-intimate family/friend, and strangers along with circumstances such as homicides committed as the result of a felony, and homicides committed as a result of an argument. Results show that firearms were used the most by strangers, and in felony circumstances, while knife/ blunt objects and personal weapons were used the most by non-intimate family/ friends and in argument circumstances

Essays on Regional Amenities and Public Policies

This dissertation investigates how alterations in government policies affect the level of, and access to, public amenities, and how outcomes vary across space. The first essay sheds light on whether the recentralization of political institutions in Russia affected the provision of regional public services. First, I exploit regional variation in governors’ party affiliation to assess the impact of a uniform change in political institutions towards more centralization on the level of public services provision across states. Second, I investigate whether the combined effect, recentralization and party affiliation, is different among local and global public services. I find that a change in the region’s affiliation newly aligning with the central government party induced by the policy change increases the level of global public services by 1-2 percent. However, I find no such effect on the provision of local public services. The second essay is joint work with Carlianne Patrick. We exploit a unique characteristic of 10 charter schools in the metropolitan Atlanta area to identify property value capitalization of charter schools. Each of the 10 charter schools has two priority zones: households located in priority zone one have a higher probability of admission than households located in priority zone two. This study exploits spatial variation in the likelihood of attending a charter school between priority zone one and two to identify their effect on single-family home values using annual data on housing transactions. Our results indicate that prices increased by 6-8% for priority one zone homes compared to priority two zone homes after the opening of a new charter school. We also find that the priority one zone capitalization increases as the home’s traditional public school performs worse. The third essay is joint work with Benjamin Ukert. We estimate the causal effect of the Australian National Firearms Agreement on firearm mortality. Our identification strategy relies on state variation in the pre-NFA firearm death rates in 1994-1996. The results suggest that the NFA decreased the total firearm death rate by 60%. The reduction in the total firearm death rate is driven by large decreases in the firearm homicide and firearm suicide rates, while we find no changes in the accidental and undetermined intent firearm death rate

Motivation to Kill: The Relationship between Motive and Weapon Choice in Homicide

abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the factors that influence the choice of weapon in homicide. The study focuses on three research questions using data from Newark, New Jersey: what is the most commonly associated weapon with each motive? What factors influence the use of a particular type of weapon in a homicide? How does the method of weapon retrieval, or lack thereof, affect the choice of weapon? The cross-tabulation findings revealed that domestically-motivated homicides are most likely to be committed with knives and blunt objects; and drug-, gang-, dispute-, revenge, and robbery-motivated homicides were most likely to be committed using a firearm. The logistic regression demonstrated the method of weapon retrieval, the mode of how the homicide was carried out, the offender’s gender, and the victim and/or offender being a drug dealer or a gang member were all significant in terms of how they affected the offender’s use of a firearm to carry out the homicide. For knives and blunt objects, the method of weapon retrieval, the mode of how the homicide was carried out, the offender’s gender, and the victim and/or offender being a drug dealer or a gang member were all significant in terms of how they affected the offender’s use of a knife or blunt object to carry out the homicide. The results support the need for focused deterrence and conflict resolution interventions.Dissertation/ThesisMasters Thesis Criminology and Criminal Justice 201

Impulse Purchases, Gun Ownership and Homicides:Evidence from a Firearm Demand Shock

Do firearm purchase delay laws reduce aggregate homicide levels? Using quasi-experimental evidence from a 6-month countrywide gun demand shock starting in late 2012, we show that U.S. states with legislation preventing immediate handgun purchases experienced smaller increases in handgun sales. Our findings are hard to reconcile with entirely rational consumers, but suggest that gun buyers behave time-inconsistently. In a second step, we demonstrate that states with purchase delays also witnessed 3% lower homicide rates during the same period compared to states allowing instant handgun access. We report suggestive evidence that lower handgun sales primarily reduced impulsive assaults and domestic violence

Access to guns in the heat of the moment: more restrictive gun laws mitigate the effect of temperature on violence

Gun violence is a major problem in the United States, and extensive prior work has shown that higher temperatures increase violent behavior. We consider whether restricting the concealed carry of firearms mitigates or exacerbates the effect of temperature on violence. We use two identification strategies that exploit daily variation in temperature and variation in gun control policies between and within states. We provide evidence that more prohibitive concealed-carry laws attenuate the temperature - homicide relationship. Our findings are consistent with more-prohibitive policy regimes reducing the lethality of altercations

Domestic Homicide in New Brunswick: An Overview of Some Contributing Factors

This study looks at domestic homicides of women in New Brunswick from 1984 to 2005. It examines factors associated with higher homicide risk for women and reviews the criminal justice system response. The study suggests that national studies of domestic homicide are urban-centric and that rurality itself may be a risk factor.Cette étude se penche sur les homicides conjugaux de femmes au Nouveau-Brunswick entre 1984 et 2005. Elle étudies les facteurs associés aux risques d'homicides plus élevés pour les femmes et réexamine la réponse du système judicaire criminel. Cette étude suggère que les études sur l'homicide conjugal sont concentrées sur le milieu urbain et que le fait de vivre en milieu rural est en soi peut-être un facteur de risque