The MATSim Network Flow Model for Traffic Simulation Adapted to Large-Scale Emergency Egress and an Application to the Evacuation of the Indonesian City of Padang in Case of a Tsunami Warning

The evacuation of whole cities or even regions is an important problem, as demonstrated by recent events such as evacuation of Houston in the case of Hurricane Rita or the evacuation of coastal cities in the case of Tsunamis. This paper describes a complex evacuation simulation framework for the city of Pandang, with approximately 1,000,000 inhabitants. Padang faces a high risk of being inundated by a tsunami wave. The evacuation simulation is based on the MATSim framework for large-scale transport simulations. Different optimization parameters like evacuation distance, evacuation time, or the variation of the advance warning time are investigated. The results are given as overall evacuation times, evacuation curves, an detailed GIS analysis of the evacuation directions. All these results are discussed with regard to their usability for evacuation recommendations.BMBF, 03G0666E, Verbundprojekt FW: Last-mile Evacuation; Vorhaben: Evakuierungsanalyse und Verkehrsoptimierung, Evakuierungsplan einer Stadt - Sonderprogramm GEOTECHNOLOGIENBMBF, 03NAPAI4, Transport und Verkehr: Verbundprojekt ADVEST: Adaptive Verkehrssteuerung; Teilprojekt Verkehrsplanung und Verkehrssteuerung in Megacitie

A Constraint Programming Approach for Non-Preemptive Evacuation Scheduling

Large-scale controlled evacuations require emergency services to select evacuation routes, decide departure times, and mobilize resources to issue orders, all under strict time constraints. Existing algorithms almost always allow for preemptive evacuation schedules, which are less desirable in practice. This paper proposes, for the first time, a constraint-based scheduling model that optimizes the evacuation flow rate (number of vehicles sent at regular time intervals) and evacuation phasing of widely populated areas, while ensuring a nonpreemptive evacuation for each residential zone. Two optimization objectives are considered: (1) to maximize the number of evacuees reaching safety and (2) to minimize the overall duration of the evacuation. Preliminary results on a set of real-world instances show that the approach can produce, within a few seconds, a non-preemptive evacuation schedule which is either optimal or at most 6% away of the optimal preemptive solution.Comment: Submitted to the 21st International Conference on Principles and Practice of Constraint Programming (CP 2015). 15 pages + 1 reference pag

Sequential evacuation strategy for multiple rooms toward the same means of egress

This paper examines different evacuation strategies for systems where several rooms evacuate trough the same means of egress, using microscopic pedestrian simulation.As a case study, a medium-rise office building is considered. It was found that the standard strategy, whereby the simultaneous evacuation of all levels is performed, can be improved by a sequential evacuation, beginning with the lowest floor and continuing successively with each one of the upper floors after a certain delay. The importance of the present research is that it provides the basis for the design and implementation of new evacuation strategies and alarm systems that could significantly improve the evacuation of multiple rooms trough a common means of escape.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Cross-comparative analysis of evacuation behavior after earthquakes using mobile phone data

Despite the importance of predicting evacuation mobility dynamics after large scale disasters for effective first response and disaster relief, our general understanding of evacuation behavior remains limited because of the lack of empirical evidence on the evacuation movement of individuals across multiple disaster instances. Here we investigate the GPS trajectories of a total of more than 1 million anonymized mobile phone users whose positions are tracked for a period of 2 months before and after four of the major earthquakes that occurred in Japan. Through a cross comparative analysis between the four disaster instances, we find that in contrast with the assumed complexity of evacuation decision making mechanisms in crisis situations, the individuals' evacuation probability is strongly dependent on the seismic intensity that they experience. In fact, we show that the evacuation probabilities in all earthquakes collapse into a similar pattern, with a critical threshold at around seismic intensity 5.5. This indicates that despite the diversity in the earthquakes profiles and urban characteristics, evacuation behavior is similarly dependent on seismic intensity. Moreover, we found that probability density functions of the distances that individuals evacuate are not dependent on seismic intensities that individuals experience. These insights from empirical analysis on evacuation from multiple earthquake instances using large scale mobility data contributes to a deeper understanding of how people react to earthquakes, and can potentially assist decision makers to simulate and predict the number of evacuees in urban areas with little computational time and cost, by using population density information and seismic intensity which can be observed instantaneously after the shock

VELOS : a VR platform for ship-evacuation analysis

Virtual Environment for Life On Ships (VELOS) is a multi-user Virtual Reality (VR) system that aims to support designers to assess (early in the design process) passenger and crew activities on a ship for both normal and hectic conditions of operations and to improve ship design accordingly. This article focuses on presenting the novel features of VELOS related to both its VR and evacuation-specific functionalities. These features include: (i) capability of multiple users’ immersion and active participation in the evacuation process, (ii) real-time interactivity and capability for making on-the-fly alterations of environment events and crowd-behavior parameters, (iii) capability of agents and avatars to move continuously on decks, (iv) integrated framework for both the simplified and advanced method of analysis according to the IMO/MSC 1033 Circular, (v) enrichment of the ship geometrical model with a topological model suitable for evacuation analysis, (vi) efficient interfaces for the dynamic specification and handling of the required heterogeneous input data, and (vii) post-processing of the calculated agent trajectories for extracting useful information for the evacuation process. VELOS evacuation functionality is illustrated using three evacuation test cases for a ro–ro passenger ship